NASCAR at Charlotte 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Sprint All-Star Race

The Sprint All-Star Race got a rules makeover this year. It must be lacking in support or interest on some level.

The prize of $1 million offers motivation for the best drivers, so a full field of the game’s best head to Charlotte Motor Speedway to see who can win this melee in North Carolina.

It’s all a bit complicated, so we’ll hit that up a little later.

One thing is certain: The All-Star Race will be a one-of-a-kind exhibition. That alone makes it intriguing to see how it will shake out.

Let’s get started.

By the Numbers: Charlotte Motor Speedway

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NASCAR Sprint All-Star Race

Place: Charlotte Motor Speedway; Charlotte, North Carolina

Date: Saturday, May 21

Pre-Race Coverage: 8:30 p.m. ET, FS1

Green Flag: 9:16 p.m. ET, FS1

Distance: 50 laps, 50 laps, 13 laps

Defending Champion: Denny Hamlin

Who Qualifies?

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Here’s the deal: Past Sprint Cup champions such as Tony Stewart get entry into the race.

If a driver has won a race this year or last year, he gets into the race.

If a driver won an All-Star race in the past, such as Jamie McMurray, he gets into the race.

Three winners of the Sprint Showdown flights earn spots in the All-Star Race.

Lastly, a fan vote determines the final driver.

So What's the Deal with This New Format?

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A drivers council convened (I can’t help but picture the Council of Elrond here, but, you know, whatevs), and all those in attendance agreed something needed to change about the All-Star Race.

Brad Keselowski was perhaps the most vocal proponent of a "New Deal," per NASCAR.com:

"

I just wanted to see the race something that I would want to watch if I was a fan, and something that I would want to be proud of if I was the driver that won it. Quite honestly, I didn't feel like the formats of the past few years were that way. So when sitting down and kind of going over it all, I kind of had this over-arching theme that I think our sport is best when at the end of the day we have what I call common winds, where everybody is happy. Those are easy to say, hard to do, but I think they're out there.

"

So what’s new?

You already know who qualifies. What follows are two 50-lap segments followed by a 13-lap skirmish to the end. But there’s a twist to that final segment.

Hold on. We’ll get there.

The running order of Segment 1 is set by qualifying speeds and will require a mandatory green-flag pit stop for a minimum tire change of two Goodyears.

Segment 2’s order results from the ensuing race off pit road after the first 50 laps. Drivers must visit pit road again by Lap 85 for at least two Goodyear tires.

Now things get a bit Chiquita, as in bananas.

The starting order for the final 13-lap segment is a random draw whereby the top nine, 10 or 11 cars must pit for four tires. Pit road won’t allow in the other drivers with older, balder tires.

All the cars in front will be on skinned wheels. All the cars in back will be on four fresh sets. It will be 13 laps to see if the old tires can hold or the new ones can catch up.

Keselowski addressed the 13 laps:

"

It's not like some devil-worshiping thing, I can promise you that, but when we looked at the number it would take for the driver to drive through the field in the scenarios that we played out, on average it was 8-12 laps. If you make a mistake, it could take as much as 15 laps, so I think that's kind of where the number came from was trying to fit in between that 10-15 lap range and that was a unique number that hit it and could generate some interest.

"

Carl Edwards, a winner of two races this year, added, “It could be complete chaos, which is probably going to be fun."

NASCAR, if nothing else, can’t be ridiculed for making changes. No other sport amends and tweaks quite like NASCAR. Sometimes it works, sometimes not.

This could be fun.

Dark-Horse Pick: Jamie McMurray

Ralph Lauer/Associated Press

We don’t hear much out of the Jamie McMurray camp, but he is a past winner of the All-Star race and a steady pick to win this one from the second tier.

It’s nearly impossible to pick a winner, given the nature of the format, let alone a dark-horse pick. Who gets the four-tire pit stop, and who doesn’t? Who can ration those final tires, and who can’t?

It’s basically "pick a card, any card," and that’s the one card, because why not?

And the Winner Is...Carl Edwards

Nick Wass/Associated Press

He won this race in 2011, and he has that 2016 Joe Gibbs swagger.

This race will most likely come down to pit crews, and Edwards has one of the best in the game. All of the JGR pit crews can send their drivers away in 11 to 12 seconds.

When 12 seconds beeps on the ol' Timex, you start questioning the very nature of the cosmos.

That said, Edwards looks as good as any other driver in this spot—maybe even the best, as he's the reigning Coke 600 winner.

"The All-Star Race, in that moment, is overwhelming," said Edwards, according to Tom Jensen of Fox Sports. "You think, 'Man, we just won a million-dollar race. On a Saturday night, we just won a million-dollar race.' As a kid growing up driving at your local dirt track, that's surreal."