NASCAR at Dover 2016: Preview, Prediction for the AAA Drive for Autism 400
Drivers lacking drive?
That appears to be the case, a bit of senioritis for drivers with Chase credentials. Why study when you’ve already graduated?
"Clearly, the sport is lacking some motivation once you’ve won a race," Brad Keselowski said in MRN.com’s Pete Pistone’s column.
Those are bizarre words coming from Kez, who was aflutter in that debutant way after winning his second race of the season and fourth overall at Talladega Superspeedway a few weeks ago.
It’s a long season, and once that win direct-deposits in the bank account, the urgency falls off the vine.
And so we go to Dover International Speedway—the Monster Mile*—for the AAA Drive for Autism 400, where Jimmie Johnson has won 10 times and Martin Truex Jr. tries to type ctl-alt-delete on last week’s effort.
So read on for this week’s monstrous preview.
*You can already hear Kurt Busch frothing at the mouth with his Monster Energy drink water bottle pre- and post-race. One imagines it’s a black water bottle because Monster undoubtedly bungles his stomach into all kinds of untieable knots.
By the Numbers: Dover International Speedway
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AAA Drive for Autism 400
Place: Dover International Speedway; Dover, Delaware
Date: Sunday, May 15
Pre-Race Coverage: 11:30 a.m. (ET), NASCAR RaceDay, FS1
Green Flag: 1:15 p.m. (ET), FS1
Distance: 400 laps, 400 miles
Defending champion: Jimmie Johnson
Current Driver Standings
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1. Kevin Harvick, 390
2. Kyle Busch, 386
3. Carl Edwards, 367
4. Jimmie Johnson, 353
5. Kurt Busch, 350
6. Brad Keselowski, 332
7. Joey Logano, 320
8. Austin Dillon, 307
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 305
10. Martin Truex Jr., 303
11. Chase Elliott, 303
12. Jamie McMurray, 276
13. Denny Hamlin, 273
14. Matt Kenseth, 269
15. AJ Allmendinger, 265
16. Ryan Blaney, 255
Bold drivers are winners. Italics indicate multiple wins.
The Still-Too-Early-to-Watch Chase Bubble
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The Two Above the Line
AJ Allmendinger
AJ Allmendinger better sink his claws into this position in the Chase standings. It’s not comfortable sitting in 15th. The thermostat is a balmy 61 degrees—habitable, but you know, not the velvety charm of 73.
Dinger has three top-10s at Dover but none since 2011. The Monster Mile is a quirky track, and nobody does quirky like the Dinger.
Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney earned his first top-five finish of the season at Kansas in a race that saw many drivers (Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr.) hurt themselves.
Blaney continues to improve and impress. Most impressive is the way he exited a stretch of plaintive performances by averaging a 24th-place finish.
His past two? An average of seventh.
He showed he can forget the past. So it’s onto Dover for the rookie.
The Two Below the Line
Ryan Newman
Sleeping on the couch in the halfway house for Chase-hungry drivers is Newman yet again.
He moved up two spots in the standings after the Kansas race just, you know, doin’ his thang.
Newman has gone 22 races at Dover without a win, but that’s par for his course of late. He hasn’t won a single race since 2013, a stretch of 99 straight.
Sunday will likely be 100 races without a win.
Kasey Kahne
It seems every week is a fine time to catch up with the No. 5 team, as it has seemingly signed a 26-week lease on the Still-Too-Early-to-Watch Chase bubble.
But unlike the other races this year, this one may be Kahne’s big break in 2016. Last year, Kahne performed like a young Johnson, finishing fourth and sixth at the Monster Mile.
Kahne could benefit from a sub-lethal dose of karma, and this track could administer the tonic for him.
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Biggest Movers
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Biggest Climb
Austin Dillon, Up Two
Austin Dillon continues his impressive breakout season, moving up two spots to eighth place.
Of the drivers without a win, Dillon ranks second in points behind only Kurt Busch.
FoxSports.com’s Larry McReynolds raved about this No. 3 team and thinks it’s only a matter of time before it burns it down post-race.
I think he’s right.
Biggest Fall
Trevor Bayne, Down Four
When you’re in and around the Still-Too-Early-to-Watch Chase Bubble, a poor effort sends you to the nether regions of the driver standings.
Dropping four points in one race at this point in the season is a oceanic dive of the highest order.
Bayne’s historical performances at Dover would suggest that he’ll be several clicks behind the leaders. An average finish of 37th in two races means he could be fist-bumping with Reed Sorenson and Cole Whitt at around 4 p.m. ET Sunday.
Fine men, no doubt, but not exactly winning company.
Biggest Storylines
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What to Do When the Regular Season Becomes Meaningless?
For the winners of races early in the season—and that’s only six drivers—the regular season is fluff or, more accurately, has become fluff. That winner’s sole job is to get his sponsor the most views on the screen. Big ups to M&Ms this year.
Competitively speaking, the win-and-you’re-in format that grants drivers clearance into the Chase turns regular-season races largely into exhibitions, into college basketball.
Brad Keselowski, who has won two races this year, elaborated on the lack of motivation, per Pistone:
"Clearly, the sport is lacking some motivation once you’ve won a race. I don't think there’s any question that most of the competitors feel like that is not advantageous for a product we’re trying to put on, and have floated ideas to level that back out. Maybe some people will like it and maybe some won’t. We’ll have to see. But it’s never good to remove motivation from the field.
"
Pistone suggested giving drivers bonus points for the Chase. Given the nature of the pressure of the playoffs (as it should be), the extra point incentive provides motivation for drivers.
He noted: “All NASCAR needs to do is give the regular-season leader three points or the equivalent to the bonus that goes along with winning in the first 26 races of the schedule. That’s plenty of incentive and a lucrative reward that would carry value into the Chase.”
What Kez suggested was a first-round bye for the top four seeds. They still drive through the Challenger Round, but they’ve already qualified for the Contender Round based on their excellence over a 26-race span.
Pistone disagrees with the bye, but we all agree the regular season needs more seasoning as far as the guaranteed winners are concerned.
For the 25 or so other drivers, I’m sure they think the format is fine and dandy as is.
Adam Stevens Suspended
NASCAR had to know this was going to happen, and it has to know that as the pressure gets tighter to win races, crew chiefs will gamble.
So what happened?
Adam Stevens, the No. 18 crew chief, will be at home watching the Monster Mile since he failed to tighten all five lug nuts in a “safe and secure manner,” according to a NASCAR rule, per MRN.com.
Due to this call, the tire changer, minion Josh Leslie, will miss one race, too.
Stevens incurred a $20,000 fine and will be on probation until New Year’s Eve 2016.
Crews will push the limits. If you’re Kahne’s team and it’s Richmond and you’re driving in fifth and Keith Rodden has a chance to win the race, do you think he’ll tighten all five lugs?
If NASCAR truly cares about safety, and by most accounts it does, the fines and penalties have to be so severe that the risk of incurring the penalty far outweighs the benefit of the gamble.
Forfeiting purse monies, six-figure fines, a three-strike-and-you’re-out policy (over a chief’s career). Something severe. FoxSports.com’s Tom Jensen sees severity of that shade as a reality later in the season.
Otherwise, what’s $20,000 to these guys? Small price to pay to get Rowdy to Victory Lane, no?
A Tale of Two Dovers for Jimmie Johnson
A year ago, Jimmie Johnson won his record 10th race at Dover. Any time a driver hits double-digit wins at a track, it’s something special.
Entering the final race of the Challenger Round of the Chase, Johnson had to be feeling good about his chances of advancing. It mattered little that he had won four races in 2015. Mechanical issues at the track he mastered kicked him out of the Chase.
“It was instantaneous for me," Johnson said in Jessica Ruffin’s NASCAR.com story. "I was coming down the front stretch and it just started vibrating; the right rear hub I guess started seizing up because the fluid was out of it. It was just metal-on-metal shaking."
Johnson will look to pad that Dover resume all the more and try to chisel his name alongside the Joe Gibbs drivers as a live title threat in 2016.
Dark-Horse Pick: Aric Almirola
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With the exception of Kevin Harvick, who finished second and first at the two Dover races in 2015, no one was more consistent than...Aric Almirola?
The No. 43 car finished fifth in both races last season.
Almirola said in Andy Marquis’ Popular Speed story after last year’s fall race:
"It was a really good job. We just struggled with getting the car in the race track most of the day and right there at the end four tires paid off for us. That was some really good adjustments by Trent and the guys and the pit crew did a good job getting me off pit road and just a really solid day for us.
"
That’s a solid, full notebook material to strike at Dover. No one will enter this race with more quiet confidence than Almirola.
And the Winner Is...Martin Truex Jr.
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No one in the entire Sprint Cup wants to forget Kansas more than the No. 78 team.
Truex led 172 laps before a first-order mishap on pit road forced Truex from sure winner to mid-pack finisher (14th actually, but 13 spots from where he was projected to finish with 55 laps to go).
"I couldn't believe it," Truex said after the race, per NASCAR.com. "It's frustrating, but that's how it goes. We're going to win some races (this year), for sure. We keep bringing cars like that, we're going to win some. ... It's tough, but it happens. It's part of racing."
Given how JGR teams are performing and now that Truex is an adopted son in the JGR nuclear family, he’ll come out firing at Dover, a place where he has won before.
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