Are Spurs a Bigger Long-Term Threat to Chelsea's London Dominance Than Arsenal?
Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal have not locked horns since since their 2-2 draw on March 5. As has been the case for a large part of the last decade, however, they are again engaged in the familiar battle to be recognised as north London's top club.
This Premier League subplot has been played in the shadows of near-perennial Chelsea dominance among the capital's clubs. This season, for the first time in quite a while, Tottenham are showing signs of being a bigger long-term threat to this status quo than Arsenal.
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Despite their difficulties during one of English football's most dramatically unsuccessful title defences, Chelsea—who host Spurs on Monday night—are still unequivocally London's club to beat.
The Blues have been champions four times since Arsenal's last league win in that historic unbeaten 2003-04 campaign. In Europe, they have been England's pre-eminent club (multiple semi-final runs preceding their UEFA Champions League win in 2011-12 and UEFA Europa League victory the following season), and at home, they are a domestic cup force—something Spurs have twice detrimentally found out in sight of glory of their own.
Their resources and talent are so considerable as to have been able to attract a manager the calibre of Italy coach Antonio Conte for next season. Interim boss Guus Hiddink has twice jumped at the chance of just taking on a temporary gig at Stamford Bridge.
Past successes and prestige only counts for so much without timely progress. Nevertheless, plenty is still stacked in Chelsea's favour.
With precedent and experience likely to inform a renewed charge for them, it is hard to see 2015-16's mid-table mediocrity being little more than an aberration.
That Tottenham are confident they can at least become a more serious obstacle to this than Arsenal is a noteworthy development (Slaven Bilic's ascendant West Ham United side will also be well worth tracking)—one that, if confirmed in the remaining weeks of the season, will set up a fascinating dynamic in north London, particularly heading into next season.
Consistency Ain't Easy
Tottenham have gone close to finishing ahead of Arsenal on numerous occasions in the aforementioned period, potential opportunities to establish even a momentary degree of supremacy ultimately falling agonisingly short.
| Year | Arsenal | Points Difference (in Arsenal's favour) | Tottenham Hotspur |
| 2005-06 | 4th | +2 | 5th |
| 2006-07 | 4th | +8 | 5th |
| 2007-08 | 3rd | +37 | 11th |
| 2008-09 | 4th | +21 | 8th |
| 2009-10 | 3rd | +5 | 4th |
| 2010-11 | 4th | +3 | 5th |
| 2011-12 | 3rd | +1 | 4th |
| 2012-13 | 4th | +1 | 5th |
| 2013-14 | 4th | +10 | 6th |
| 2014-15 | 3rd | +11 | 5th |
The infamous final-day miss of 2005-06—a season when Chelsea celebrated their second title win in a row—is still perhaps the most galling.
Stricken with team-wide illness, Spurs saw their Champions League hopes killed by West Ham as Arsenal beat Wigan Athletic to take fourth place.
More positively for Spurs, that impressive season marked the beginning of an entry to top-four contention that—bar two years between 2007 and 2009 wasted by managerial upheaval—has lasted since.
This endurance is no small thing in a division as strong as the Premier League has been.
Back then, Aston Villa were, with Spurs, seen as one of the more likely to break into the top four. They are now preparing for life in the second tier. Everton are another to periodically come close, only to then fall away for stretches.
Up until 2005-06, Spurs had also primarily been a mid-table concern in the Premier League era, the unwanted exception being a few flirtations with relegation.
Yet as decent a decade as it has been for Tottenham (finally making the Champions League by finishing fourth in 2009-10, with a memorable quarter-final run following), they have consistently fallen short of their north London rivals.
In Harry Redknapp's last year in charge, 2011-12, and Andre Villas-Boas' first, 2012-13, they should have stayed ahead. Springtime inconsistency ended those hopes, and Arsene Wenger's better-experienced finishers stole in at the end.
Prior to this season that gap looked to have widened again. Arsene Wenger's team fell short in their own title hunts but won successive FA Cups in 2014 and 2015, creating optimism about their ability to secure top spot in the league for the first time since 2003-04.
This Season
Tottenham visit Chelsea on Monday in the unexpected position of being London's top club for the current campaign. The ongoing attempt to end their 26-year Stamford Bridge hoodoo burdened with the pressure of trying to cement that status and earn bragging rights over a rival.
With three matches remaining—and prior to the Chelsea meeting, a game in hand—Mauricio Pochettino's team are two points ahead of Wenger's persistent Arsenal in third.
Honours have been even in the north London clubs' league meetings (1-1 and 2-2) this season. Yet despite their closeness in the league table, the conflicting sides of the north London divide are interpreting their efforts rather differently.
For Tottenham, there is pride in what, all being well, will be their highest league finish since the 1989-90 campaign, when they also last beat Chelsea at the Bridge. Should they finish second, it would be their best since the 1960s.
For Arsenal, there is disappointment and in places anger their wait for another title goes on. Feelings exacerbated by disliked neighbours and unfancied Leicester City—a team the Gunners beat twice—being the ones to have fought for the crown into May.
The Future
There is plenty of reason for Tottenham to be optimistic about what they may achieve in the coming years.
They are set to return to the Champions League for the first time since 2011. Their attack boasts young, hungry talents such as Dele Alli, Christian Eriksen, Kane and Erik Lamela, who will fancy themselves to cause any defence problems. Their rearguard is looking as healthy as it has in years and is well protected by generally selfless, tactically aware team-mates.
Goalkeeper and captain Hugo Lloris appears to be buying into this team's future, while the hard-earned experiences of others such as Mousa Dembele, Jan Vertonghen and Kyle Walker has led to their best seasons yet in a Spurs shirt.
The academy production line looks in good order too, with hopes or at least noteworthy intrigue in the prospects of Josh Onomah and Harry Winks, among others. Even with concerns about their new stadium's impact on finances, increasing Premier League income should ensure an ability to strengthen from outside when necessary.
The man overseeing these first-team improvements, in personnel and the aggressive strategy inspiring them, has all but confirmed his intention to stay on board.
Pochettino announced on Friday the verbal agreement of a new contract, per Sky Sports' Ben Reynolds. Walker, now on his fourth manager at Spurs, is delighted.
"For me, he’s not just the manager on the pitch but it’s how he is off the pitch," he told the Observer's David Hytner (h/t the Guardian). "He is the man to take this club forward and on to new levels."
After Spurs beat his Manchester United side 3-0 in April, their manager, Louis van Gaal—a candidate for Pochettino's job before he chose the Red Devils—said "the challenge was bigger for me in Manchester United and shall always be bigger. I'm sorry for Tottenham but Manchester United is a bigger club."
That may be true, but it neglects the fact that at a certain point, having a good team means more than a big fanbase and innumerable sponsorship deals. Leicester are proving that, and evidence suggests Tottenham under Pochettino's management can continue to do so too.
On paper, it all looks rosy. Especially considering the fan divide at Arsenal.
A vocal minority publicly questioned the hierarchy and its continued backing of Wenger during Saturday's 1-0 win over Norwich City. Others support the Frenchman wholeheartedly. Some come in between, hesitant to criticise a club legend but also dispirited by the lack of recent league success.
Yet even with all this, Arsenal are hot on the tails of Tottenham, looking to salvage their season with a demoralising usurping of their rivals.
That moving into second place would be deemed as salvaging their season says a lot. While it may not sufficiently excite their fans any more, the Gunners' comparative consistency and success compared to that of Tottenham and many others is outstanding.
Depending on your expectations and viewpoint, Wenger's status at Arsenal will impinge on the continuation of this most. How they react to life without him will be one of English football's biggest stories whenever it occurs.
Yet while their future feels less hopeful and more uncertain than Spurs', it is hard to see them falling away anytime soon.
Tottenham have every right to believe they can compete with Chelsea long term to be London's best—and therefore possibly England's.
But it is unlikely to be by any considerable distance instead of Arsenal, but rather alongside them. The fight for capital dominance is getting more crowded, not streamlined.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
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