To Max or Not to Max: Is DeMar DeRozan Worth Leading-Man Money?
Two games won't make or break DeMar DeRozan's foray into unrestricted free agency this summer.
At least he should hope that's the case. The two-time All-Star shot 5-of-19 from the floor during the Toronto Raptors' 100-90 loss to the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the teams' first-round postseason series and followed that by failing to get to the free-throw line in Game 2—for the first time in over a year.
Whatever credibility DeRozan lost early in these playoffs, he recouped some with a 21-point night to help Toronto coast to a 101-85 Game 3 victory at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
"The angle of our screens, the type of screens we were setting for him, hopefully loosened him up a bit," Raptors head coach Dwane Casey said, per ESPNNewYork.com's Mike Mazzeo. "But at the end of the day, he made shots. That's kind of simplistic, but that's kind of what he did."
And that's what his next team—be it the Raptors or one of a slew of suitors from around the NBA in July—will expect from him, assuming he declines his player option for 2016-17. DeRozan has fashioned himself into one of the game's elite slashers, but in today's NBA, with perimeter shooting more must than plus, is a 2-guard who works almost exclusively inside the three-point line worth max money?
To Max
DeRozan's ability to draw fouls could nudge him toward that territory.
He finished third in the league in free-throw attempts (8.4 per game), fifth in and-1 opportunities (52 total) and ninth in fouls drawn (5.5 per game).
As an 85 percent shooter from the stripe, DeRozan scored an average of 1.7 points per possession—an astronomical mark of efficiency for any pro offense—whenever he got two shots therein.
DeRozan wouldn't have taken up residency at the free-throw line without more time on the ball, and that wouldn't have come without a marked improvement in his creative capacities. He's become a patient operator in the pick-and-roll, one who can get his own...
Or find the finisher in traffic.
According to NBA.com, DeRozan ranked as one of the league's most frequent and efficient pick-and-roll ball-handlers, scoring 0.99 points per possession on 48.1 percent shooting, which was good enough to land in the league's 92nd percentile.
Some of that effectiveness comes from his deep reserve of mid-range tricks. With an assortment of pull-ups and post-ups, he shot better than 40 percent from between three and 16 feet.
If DeRozan looks at all like a poor man's Kobe Bryant inside the arc, he should. The Compton, California, native credits the Los Angeles Lakers legend, whom DeRozan grew up idolizing, for inspiring his game.
Shortly after Bryant announced his retirement in November, DeRozan said this, per CBS Sports' James Herbert:
"He meant everything. I try to emulate, learn so much from him ever since I was a kid. Watching every single game growing up in Los Angeles, having a chance to get with him and learn from him and from conversations even when I was in high school [to] playing against him, competing against him and being in big games with him.
"
Who better, then, for the Lakers to court as the Black Mamba's nominal replacement? According to ESPN's Zach Lowe, the Lakers will have a max contract, starting at $25 million per season, ready for DeRozan to sign when free agency opens in July.
For L.A., DeRozan could be the bridge between Bryant and the team's young core, which is led by Julius Randle (21) and D'Angelo Russell (20). He could be the perfect fit to carry on Kobe's Nike legacy and send his apparel deal skyrocketing, per The Vertical's Nick DePaula.
Toronto, though, will have more than an edgewise word in the debate.
"This has always been home to me," DeRozan told ESPN Radio's Meet the All-Stars in February (via ESPN's Marc Stein). "I took pride in putting on this Toronto Raptors jersey since I've been drafted here. And my whole goal was to get this team to the point where it is now. And I feel I've been a major key to that."
He and Kyle Lowry have both played big roles in Toronto's rise. Together, they formed a close friendship off the court and a comfortable partnership on it. With DeRozan around, Lowry can spend more time off the ball, where he can rest and put his threatening three-point shot (38.8 percent this season) to good use.
Considering the uncharted territory into which those two have led the team, there may be no price too high for the Raptors to pay to keep them together.
Not to Max
Then again, the DeRozan-Lowry duo fell short in its first two postseasons and didn't get off to the best start in its third. For all these two have done for the Raptors, will they be able to lift the team into title contention?
That's the question general manager Masai Ujiri will have to consider before extending DeRozan a max-contract offer. As Lowe noted, making that kind of commitment to DeRozan would essentially lock Toronto into its current core:
"DeRozan at the max would be movable, too. But do that enough times, and suddenly you're capped out. Suddenly, this is your team. Bring back DeRozan at the max, and the Raptors would blow past next season's salary cap and have about $105 million on the books for 2017-2018, when the league and players union project the cap will be about $108 million.
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The Lakers may not hesitate, though, given how desperate they are to win and the tight timetable on which Jim Buss, L.A.'s executive vice president of basketball operations, is operating. The Vertical's Bobby Marks, however, wrote that it wouldn't be wise for the Purple and Gold to push for relevancy:
"Although the Lakers are positioned with cap space in July, trying to hit a home run in free agency would be the wrong approach. Lakers ownership needs to realize that this team is not close to being a playoff contender and building the team without skipping steps is the best approach.
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There may be no pressing need for Toronto to compete with the exorbitant overtures sure to come DeRozan's way. Its roster is already stocked with talented wings, from DeMarre Carroll and Terrence Ross to Bruno Caboclo and rookies Delon Wright and Norman Powell, who averaged 10.1 points per game and shot 46.1 percent from three as a starter this season.
Save for Caboclo, all those options shoot the long ball better than DeRozan does (33.8 percent).
To his credit, DeRozan understands he has to be more willing and able to launch from deep.
"I have no problem shooting threes," he told Lowe in January. "I just feel like I can get to the basket at will, so it almost feels like settling. But I know I have to take them, so now I'm just gonna shoot it."
Any team that invests max money in DeRozan will be betting on his ability to improve in that regard.
His next employer will also have to hope he picks up the pace defensively. By most measures, DeRozan was far from elite on that end of the floor this season.
Opponents shot 3.1 percent better from the field than otherwise when guarded by DeRozan, who ranked 77th out of 98 players at his position in defensive real plus-minus (minus-2.22) in 2015-16, per ESPN. Raptors foes, on the whole, scored 104.1 points per 100 possessions with DeRozan on the floor—slightly worse than the Chicago Bulls' 15th-ranked defense.
At 26, DeRozan is still young enough and has enough of his prime years ahead of him to sharpen the duller parts of his game. But if he didn't work his way into a more proficient shooter and defender through his first seven years of pro ball, is it reasonable to expect him to do so in the next four or five?
The answer to that question could cost DeRozan tens of millions of dollars.
Verdict
For all the concerns about what DeRozan isn't, there's no denying the value of what he is: a reliable 20-point scorer who's going to shoot free throws in bunches and run the pick-and-roll well enough to be a secondary ball-handler.
Can he be the top dog on a playoff team? He hasn't had the opportunity to confirm or deny that since he's been the 1A to Lowry's 1 in Toronto. Without a bona fide first option, any other squad that signs DeRozan might have trouble getting its money's worth if it maxes him out.
In Toronto, though, the niche he fills is not only clear, but it's well worth the expense. DeRozan's salary would be as much about fortifying the Raptors' existing foundation as it would be about adding to it. And Toronto's future as a free-agent destination depends, in part, on its ability to keep its own.
On that front, DeRozan's return would make the Raptors 2-for-2 in star retention recently—they locked Lowry into a four-year, $48 million deal during the summer of 2014.
Whether he stays or goes, look for DeRozan to get his full value this summer amid a market that will be short on blue-chip free agents and long on cash courtesy of the NBA's exploding salary cap.
Stats per NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited.
