UFC 197: Anthony Pettis vs. Edson Barboza, a Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 197 is led by two title fights, but also on the main card is a big time lightweight tilt between Anthony Pettis (18-4) and Edson Barboza (16-4)
Pettis checks in at No. 6 and Barboza at No. 9 in Bleacher Report's Steven Rondina's MMA rankings.
The former champion is on a two-fight skid: dropping his belt to Rafael dos Anjos and a title eliminator against Eddie Alvarez. Barboza is also coming off a loss against Tony Ferguson. Both men have their backs against the wall as they want to lay claim to being a title contender.
This is a stylistic matchup that should be making fans salivate. Two high-level, exciting strikers having the cage door locked behind them.
Pettis and Barboza are sure to electrify the crowd.
So, who has the edge? Let's go.
Striking
1 of 5
This is going to be extremely difficult to break down because the only thing that came to mind for this category was attempting to embed a big fire emoji right in the center of the page.
Barboza and Pettis may be the best two strikers in the division. Both men have all the tools available to them, and they both get creative with what they throw. On the feet, this is one of the best fights the UFC has on the books. Immensely exciting.
The FightMetric numbers tip the scale a little in favor of Barboza, and I tend to agree for this matchup as well.
The is Barboza's aggression, which subsequently could play into the hands of Pettis. His aggressive style will give him more opportunities to land the accumulating strikes that will damage Pettis in the three-round affair. Specifically his brutal leg kicks.
The powerful, fight-altering leg kicks from Barboza are the swing vote in this election. It's a dead heat, but I'll give the Brazilian the slight edge.
Edge: Barboza
Grappling
2 of 5
Pettis does not get the credit he deserves for his offensive wrestling, but it's easy to see why it's forgotten with his flashy striking.
Neither man is primarily a grappler although they both have the skills. Pettis is just a little further ahead of Barboza in that area.
With Barboza's leg kick looming, it will be interesting to see if Pettis attempts to time a takedown off of one. Pettis has a quick shot. The shot is what gives him the edge, but the clinch is likely where we will see the most grappling.
Barboza and Pettis will clinch up several times throughout the fight as they get in close, and Pettis is more apt to drive him to the fence. Barboza will be looking for separation and knees. I'm expecting more disciplined grappling from the former champion to avoid giving him that space.
Edge: Pettis
Submissions
3 of 5
Don't sleep on Barboza's jiu-jitsu, but this is another category for Pettis.
His submissions over Benson Henderson and Gilbert Melendez should tell you everything you need to know about his ability to finish a fight with a submission. Henderson and Melendez are two of the most difficult to submit, and Pettis did so quickly.
That speaks volumes.
It is also a more dangerous element when the gameplan is focused on the striking battle. If Barboza neglected that aspect of Pettis' game, then don't be surprised to see Barboza tapping out before the end of the fight.
Edge: Pettis
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Barboza's X-Factor: Over-Aggression
In the striking slide I mentioned his aggression could play into Pettis' hand, and as such, he needs to be careful about getting over-aggressive.
Pettis' counter-striking is deadly. He can finish the fight out of nowhere, and Barboza could get leveled as he comes in wildly. With his leg kicks and crisp striking, Barboza will find more success by sticking with outside shots and by consciously picking accurate times to dart in with combinations.
This is a matchup that will be about shot selection, and the more patient fighter will prevail.
Pettis' X-Factor: Kick Defense
Barboza's leg kicks are vicious. He holds the UFC record for stoppages by way of leg and body kicks. He is also the first fighter with leg kick, body kick and head kick knockout stoppages.
Pettis will need to have his kick defense ready because the leg kicks can take away his power, and the body kicks will sap his energy. They are a big factor in this fight, and how Pettis goes about defending them will be key.
It is why I am expecting Pettis to threaten with takedowns. It will stop Barboza from throwing as many kicks for fear of being put on his back.
Prediction
5 of 5
This is a great fight, and one important to the division. Who walks away the victor?
I'm leaning towards the former champion.
The fact that this fight is only three rounds means that the first round should be fight at a high pace. Expect to see all the flash between both men as they throw down in the early going. After a couple minutes, they'll settle into a rhythm.
Pettis has a few more tools in his bag of tricks, and he has a more patient striking attack to assess how to defeat Barboza.
I don't foresee a stoppage. Pettis is going to play the role of wrestler to grind out a decision. There's nothing wrong with that strategy against a devastating striker like Barboza. Take away his biggest asset, get the win and advance toward another title shot.
Prediction: Anthony Pettis defeats Edson Barboza by unanimous decision.
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