Patience or Panic on 10 Early-Season 2016 MLB Concerns
It's a really small sample size, so there's no reason to panic.
That's something you hear time and again in the early stages of every MLB season, and more times than not it's correct.
When you're talking about a 162-game season that spans seven months, a few weeks don't add up to much in the grand scheme of things.
However, it's easy to overreact early on now that the games finally matter and fans around the league are hyped for the season.
And while the small-sample-size point usually holds true, sometimes warning signs emerge in the first few weeks of the season that can serve as an alert for bigger issues to come.
So with that in mind, what follows is a look at 10 early-season MLB concerns and whether patience or panic is the right response.
It's a mix of individual players who are off to slow starts, injury concerns and larger team-wide issues.
A Lack of Veteran Influence for the Minnesota Twins
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After a surprising 83-79 finish last season and with a good core of young talent in place, the Minnesota Twins were expected to emerge as a surprise contender in 2016.
Instead, they began the year with a brutal 0-9 start before finally getting in the win column with a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Angels.
There have been a number of reasons for the early struggles, but limited production from the young trio of Miguel Sano (22), Byron Buxton (22) and Eddie Rosario (24) has at least been part of the problem.
- Sano: 46 PA, .179 BA, .535 OPS, 17 K
- Buxton: 28 PA, .154 BA, .416 OPS, 13 K
- Rosario: 45 PA, .146 BA, .400 OPS, 13 K
We could write it off as a simple case of growing pains from young players, but at least one American League scout attributed it to something else while talking with John Perrotto of TodaysKnuckleball.com:
"You see some of their kids like Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano and they’re really talented but they’ve been trying to do way too much at the plate. They are over-swinging, trying to hit that proverbial five-run home run.
That’s where they miss Torii. He has that great personality where he keeps everything loose but he also had such a great track record that he could talk to those kids, calm them down, and they knew that he knew what he was talking about. Sometimes you need to hear things from a fellow teammate rather than a manager or coach. It just carries more clout.
"
The Twins made every effort to re-sign Torii Hunter in the offseason, but he opted for retirement, and the team failed to add anyone in the Juan Uribe/Jonny Gomes/Jeff Francoeur mold to replace him as that veteran voice.
Patience or Panic: Patience
Buxton and Sano have as high of ceilings as any young players in baseball, and Rosario was a 2.2 WAR guy with 46 extra-base hits a year ago. Having that veteran influence in the clubhouse is great, but at this point there's no reason to connect the dots and blame the slow starts on anything but youth.
A Glacial Start from Russell Martin in Toronto
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Of the 206 players who qualify for the batting title, Toronto Blue Jays catcher Russell Martin ranks 203rd with an abysmal .346 OPS.
He's still searching for his first extra-base hit of the year with a 6-for-41 start at the plate, and he's walked just twice in 45 plate appearances.
Perhaps most troubling of all are his 18 strikeouts, which give him an MLB-worst 40 percent strikeout rate heading into play Tuesday.
The 33-year-old Martin is in the second year of a five-year, $82 million deal he signed last offseason, and by all accounts his first year with the Blue Jays was a success.
He wound up hitting .240/.329/.458 with 23 doubles, 23 home runs and 77 RBI on his way to a 3.3 WAR, as he was once again one of the most productive catchers in baseball.
However, a closer look at the numbers reveals a similarly awful start to his 2015 campaign.
Fresh off signing that hefty contract, Martin hit 1-for-24 with 11 strikeouts in his first eight games a year ago.
He then closed out the month of April by going 11-for-37 with four doubles and three home runs, so once he flips that switch, he's capable of getting hot quickly.
Patience or Panic: Patience
Martin has been a slow starter in the past, and to be blunt, the Blue Jays really don't have any other option but to be patient considering the money they still owe him and the lack of other options in-house.
The Looming Regression of Trevor Story for the Colorado Rockies
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Trevor Story etched his name in the record books when he homered six times in the first four games of the season—which happened to also be the first four games of his MLB career.
After six games, he went 9-for-27 with seven home runs, firmly establishing himself as the biggest storyline of the first week of the 2016 MLB season.
So just how good can he be over a full season?
The 23-year-old is coming off a strong season in the minors a year ago, as he posted an .863 OPS with 40 doubles, 10 triples, 20 home runs and 80 RBI between Double-A and Triple-A, so there is a track record of offensive success.
He went deep again on Monday and carries a .309 batting average with two doubles, two triples, eight home runs and 14 RBI through his first 59 career plate appearances.
However, looking at his complete stat line, the number that really jumps off the page even more than his home runs is his 23 strikeouts.
That adds up to a 39 percent strikeout rate, roughly a 15 percent increase over where he was at during his time in the minors a year ago.
The other rate stat that is worth mentioning is his current 42.1 percent ratio of home runs to fly balls.
To put that number into perspective, Nelson Cruz led all of baseball with a 30.3 percent HR/FB ratio a year ago, and Story does not exactly have a Cruz amount of raw power.
Patience or Panic: Panic
Regression is coming for Story; it's just a matter of whether he can adjust once pitchers start adjusting to him and his luck evens out. He has the tools to be a solid everyday shortstop, but he could be in for a rough stretch that mirrors his current hot streak if he doesn't improve his approach. The Rockies would be wise to prepare for a swift downturn in his production in the near future.
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The Health of Ben Revere for the Washington Nationals
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How important is a productive leadoff hitter to the success of the Washington Nationals?
Considering they are off to a 9-3 start this year after losing Ben Revere on Opening Day to a strained oblique, one could argue that the team hasn't missed the speedy leadoff man.
However, the Nationals were clearly a better team last year when the man that Revere replaced—Denard Span—was in the lineup.
All told, the Nationals finished 36-25 (.590) when Span suited up and took the field, compared to 47-54 (.465) without him as he missed significant time with a hip injury that eventually required surgery.
Span and Revere are similar players, as they set the table with a high contact rate and plus speed, so it's a comparison that carries some weight.
Oblique injuries are tough to gauge, as they can result in a brief stint on the disabled list and a quick return to action or plague a player all season.
Revere is targeting a mid-May return, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.
"Right now it’s (about) just trying to get the core strength back up and do everything I can to help the blood rushing through there to help the healing process," Revere told Janes.
In his absence, Michael Taylor has seen the bulk of the action in center field and atop the lineup, but he's gone just 8-for-45 (.178 BA) with 14 strikeouts.
That hasn't stopped the Nationals from averaging a solid 4.33 runs per game, but how much better would that be with Revere?
Patience or Panic: Patience
At this point there have been no setbacks for Revere on his road to recovery, and the Nationals seem to be playing it smart and making sure he doesn't do anything to risk re-aggravating the injury. As long as he stays on track for that mid-May return, patience is the answer.
The Texas Rangers' Catching Situation
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Looking at the Texas Rangers roster heading into the offseason, if one spot appeared to be a weakness, it was the catcher position.
That's not to say that the platoon of Robinson Chirinos and Chris Gimenez wasn't productive at times last season, especially relative to their respective price tags, but it was still an area that the team could have upgraded.
But with Gimenez starting the year on the disabled list with a leg infection and Chirinos suffering a fractured forearm, they've been stretched thin at the position already.
Bryan Holaday and Brett Nicholas are currently the two catchers on the roster, and neither has much in the way of a track record of MLB-level success.
Texas acquired Holaday after he wound up as the odd man out in Detroit this spring. He began the year with a .251/.283/.340 line in 282 career plate appearances.
Nicholas, 27, made his MLB debut shortly after the Chirinos injury. He posted a .725 OPS with 22 doubles, 12 home runs and 63 RBI in Triple-A last year, his second go-around at that level.
All of that has added up to a .233/.298/.395 line with one home run and five RBI from the catcher position in Texas so far this season, but the Rangers are still scoring 4.69 runs per game.
However, that lack of production behind the plate has led to some speculation that the team could seek an upgrade on the trade market; Jonathan Lucroy (Brewers) and Derek Norris (Padres) are two popular names.
General manager Jon Daniels doesn't appear to be in a hurry to make a deal, though, according to his comments in a recent interview with 105.3 The Fan (h/t Dallas Morning News):
"The guys we've heard from the most are the agents who have either free agent catching guys that got released out of camp, or maybe they have a catcher at Triple-A with somebody where maybe they've got an out or want us to trade for them. Teams really haven't called. You really don't get a lot of the ambulance chasing stuff - maybe once in a while, teams that have the impact catching, we've talked to. Over the winter we talked to them in and again in spring training. We didn't line up from what they're looking for, and what we were willing to give up for them.
"
Patience or Panic: Patience, for now
A trade for Lucroy or Norris would make a lot of sense for a Rangers team that is looking to contend for a title this year, but only at the right price. The Rangers mortgaged a ton of high-end young talent to acquire Cole Hamels last season, so they're better off waiting around and hoping a low-cost solution presents itself while giving Holaday and Nicholas more time to potentially prove they can be a league-average answer.
Adam Wainwright Struggling to Return to Ace Form
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Was there a more obvious pick for NL Comeback Player of the Year this season than Adam Wainwright?
One of the game's truly elite starters after going 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.031 WHIP to finish third in NL Cy Young voting in 2014, Wainwright suffered a freak Achilles injury last season in just his fourth start of the year.
Expected to be done for the season, he instead pushed his way back and wound up making three appearances out of the bullpen down the stretch and three more in the postseason.
His strong showing to close out the year, coupled with the fact that the injury had nothing to do with his arm, had most believing that Wainwright would be right back to ace form leading the St. Louis Cardinals rotation this year.
Three starts in, that hasn't been the case:
- April 3: L, 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
- April 10: ND, 5.0 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 2 K
- April 16: L, 5.1 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Wainwright seems to have his finger on what's going wrong, via Mark Saxon of ESPN.com:
"When I throw a fastball, instead of it being 91 [mph] with late life or even 90 with late life, you’re seeing a ball that’s just kind of floating across the zone right now and those hitters, they just don’t miss things like that. My hook’s rolling in and my cutter’s kind of sliding in. It’s very different from where I traditionally pitch at and where I’m going to pitch at in a few games here.
"
He also appears confident he can right the ship:
"I’m going to keep having that mindset where I know the next time I go out there, it’s going to be different. The work I’m putting in between starts will make a difference. It’s very, very frustrating. I’m so upset about the way the ball’s coming out right now.
"
His next start comes Friday when he squares off against Andrew Cashner and the San Diego Padres.
Patience or Panic: Patience
Wainwright is a smart guy who has proved capable of making adjustments when he's struggled in the past. Working with Yadier Molina doesn't hurt either. Throw in the fact that the Cardinals offense has performed much better than expected in the early going, and the team has every reason to be patient with the ace at this point.
New-Look Offense, Same Result for the Tampa Bay Rays
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After a string of six consecutive winning seasons during which they made the postseason four times, the Tampa Bay Rays have now posted back-to-back losing campaigns.
Pitching has always been the strength of the team, and when the Rays have managed to contend, it's because they've mustered up just enough offense to back their staff.
Last season that didn't happen; they put up the best ERA in the American League for starting pitchers (3.63) but ranked 25th in the majors and 14th in the AL at a meager 3.98 runs per game.
Unable to spend the big bucks in free agency, the team instead turned to the trade market and bargain bin to address the need for an offensive overhaul, but the notable offseason additions have struggled so far:
- OF Corey Dickerson: 39 PA, .222 BA, .791 OPS
- SS Brad Miller: 38 PA, .114 BA, .441 OPS
- 1B Logan Morrison: 34 PA, .063 BA, .180 OPS
- OF Steve Pearce: 22 PA, .227 BA, .500 OPS
- C Hank Conger: 17 PA, .188 BA, .423 OPS
Dickerson has been the lone standout thanks to two doubles and three home runs, but two of those home runs came during the first three games of the season.
That's left the Rays with the same set of issues: Their 3.23 team ERA sits eighth in the majors, but they've scored an MLB-low 34 runs in 12 games.
Patience or Panic: Panic
The AL East looks like it's going to be a dogfight this year, and the Rays were counting on an improved offense to give them a shot at being in the thick of things. Right now, even with the quality of the pitching, this doesn't look like a team capable of contending for a playoff spot.
New Ace, Same Rotation Struggles for the Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox entered the offseason needing to land an ace-caliber starter if they had any hopes of contending, and they got their guy when they inked David Price to a record seven-year, $217 million deal.
The trouble is, Price still only makes up one-fifth of the team's rotation.
Joe Kelly (2 GS, 8.0 IP, 14 H, 9 ER), Clay Buchholz (3 GS, 15.2 IP, 17 H, 10 ER) and Rick Porcello (2 GS, 12.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER) are all going to need to pitch significantly better if the Sox are going to make a worst-to-first push.
Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald offered up the following list of suggestions for how the rotation could improve:
- "When Eduardo Rodriguez returns, he must hit the ground running."
- "A solid contribution from a minor league starter would go a long way." [He specifically mentions Henry Owens and Brian Johnson.]
- "President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski could redouble his efforts to make a trade for an impact starter."
Rodriguez, who suffered a knee injury during spring training, will be a big key here, and both Owens and Johnson have shown solid potential at the minor league level, so the team has more in-house options to improve than most.
However, there aren't going to be four completely new starters behind Price in the rotation, so at some point at least a couple of the incumbents will need to turn things around.
Meanwhile, the offense has shouldered the load by scoring 4.91 runs per game, making for a 6-6 start despite the rotation's struggles.
Patience or Panic: Patience
The Red Sox obviously don't want to fall too far behind in the AL East standings, but if they can just keep their heads above water until Rodriguez returns while giving Johnson and Owens a bit more time to develop in the minors, they should be able to scrape together a viable five-man group from all of those options.
An Anemic Offense for the Chicago White Sox
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The Chicago White Sox are off to a nice 8-5 start here in 2016, and it's almost entirely thanks to their pitching staff.
A 2.84 team ERA puts them at third in the majors and tops in the American League, and their bullpen has been the best in the business with a 1.72 ERA over 36.2 innings of work.
However, the offense has been virtually non-existent.
They are hitting .219 as a team and averaging 3.00 runs per game, and they've been held to three or less runs in each of their past six games, including a 7-0 shutout Monday.
They also rank last in the majors with a 5.5 percent walk rate as a team, so the lack of contact hasn't been offset with on-base skills.
"You don't really want to beat them over the head about (the lack of offense), but we're still playing smarter baseball," manager Robin Ventura said, per Colleen Kane of the Chicago Tribune. "We're not really scoring in bunches, but they're coming ready to play and the pitching has done a great job for us, keeping us in games."
Among everyday players, Austin Jackson (.184 BA), Avisail Garcia (.171 BA), Todd Frazier (.154 BA) and the catching tandem of Alex Avila (.136 BA) and Dioner Navarro (.045 BA) all check in below the Mendoza line.
Frazier leads the team with six RBI, and he's slugged a pair of home runs, but he's also struck out 15 times and gone 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position.
"There's probably a little bit of pressing of trying to do too much," Ventura said of Frazier. "But you're looking at a guy who can carry the lineup for a little bit when he gets going. Right now, just shorten it up, make contact."
Patience or Panic: Patience
The White Sox did well to improve offensively in the offseason, and those five guys listed above aren't going to hit under .200 all season. Frazier in particular is capable of much more than we've seen so far, and getting him going in the middle of the lineup could spark everything. The question is, will the pitching level off before the offense can catch up?
A Shaky Starting Rotation for the Baltimore Orioles
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The Baltimore Orioles have a chance to be one of the most dangerous offensive teams in baseball this season, and we've already seen that in the early going as they're averaging 5.45 runs per game and have hit an AL-high 23 home runs.
However, there's also a chance they could wind up being the Colorado Rockies of the American League.
Granted, their bullpen is significantly better than the Rockies and they don't have to deal with Coors Field, but at least in terms of lack of starting pitching compared to offensive firepower, the comparison holds up.
Here's a look at how the Orioles' starters have performed so far:
- Chris Tillman: 3 GS, 1-1, 5.11 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 12.1 IP
- Yovani Gallardo: 3 GS, 1-0, 5.63 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 16.0 IP
- Ubaldo Jimenez: 2 GS, 1-1, 3.75 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12.0 IP
- Vance Worley: 2 GS, 1-0, 5.06 ERA, 1.312 WHIP, 10.2 IP
- Mike Wright: 1 GS, 1-0, 7.20 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 5.0 IP
While those pitchers have combined to go 5-2 thanks to the run support they've received, that's not a sustainable recipe for success. Plus, their 5.14 ERA as a staff is a major red flag.
The eventual return of Kevin Gausman—who is on a rehab assignment after starting the year on the disabled list with shoulder tendinitis—will help, but this is still a staff without a front-line option.
The team has reportedly made an offer to veteran Kyle Lohse, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
The 37-year-old Lohse posted a 5.85 ERA and 1.464 WHIP in 152.1 innings for the Brewers last season, so that should give you an idea of where the Orioles are at if he'd be a viable upgrade.
Patience or Panic: Panic
Bulking up the offense in the offseason was nice, but swapping out Wei-Yin Chen with Yovani Gallardo was a downgrade for a rotation that was already one of the worst in baseball. The Rockies comparison may seem unfair, especially considering the O's 8-3 start, but this Orioles team is going to have a hard time staying in the thick of things with that rotation.
All standard stats and WAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while advanced stats come via FanGraphs.
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