NBA Draft 2016: Spotlighting Highest-Rated Upperclassmen on Expert Mock Drafts
College freshmen have all the fun. Or at least, that seems to be the case when it comes to the NBA draft. One-and-done players have dominated the lottery picks in NBA drafts in recent years, with guys like Anthony Davis, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns needing just a season of college basketball to prove themselves worthy of the No. 1 pick.
Overseas players have been making inroads for years as well, with guys like Kristaps Porzingis and Giannis Antetokounmpo two of the more recent players to find quick success, at least individually, in the NBA.
The 2016 draft will likely again feature a glut of freshman and foreign-born players coming off the board early, but some players need a little extra schooling to develop into NBA-caliber players.
Here's a quick look at the top college upperclassmen on the latest expert mock drafts from around the web.
Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Sr.)
Even the most casual of college basketball fans has to be familiar with Buddy Hield, Oklahoma's one-man show on offense. Hield averaged 25.0 points and 5.7 rebounds per game his senior season, while shooting 49.6 percent from the floor and 46.4 percent from beyond the arc. His polished play and consistent improvement year over year bode well for his pro potential.
The Wooden Award winner really strutted his stuff in the NCAA tournament, lighting up VCU for 36 points in the second round and dropping eight three-pointers en route to 37 points against Oregon in the Elite Eight.
Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman and Sports Illustrated's Andrew Sharp see Hield going in the top five, but other mock drafters aren't so enthusiastic. CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie has him going at No. 12 to the Houston Rockets:
"Hield could go in the top-10 by the time draft interviews and workouts are done, but for now No. 12 seems to be a nice spot for him. His ability to space the floor and knock down 3s could fit really well with a Rockets team that jacks up a ton of them. He'd also work pretty well in lineups with James Harden due to his ability to shoot and his potential on the defensive end.
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There's no doubt that Hield is an excellent shooter who can knock down shots from mid-range and Steph Curry-range. However, his improved finishing at the rim and ability to score in transition are sometimes overlooked.
Mychal Thompson, father of Golden State shooting guard Klay Thompson and himself a former No. 1 overall pick, believes that scouts aren't giving Hield enough credit, much in the same way they misjudged Curry's enormous potential.
“It’s the Stephen theory," he told USA Today's Josh Peter. "The scouts don’t believe what their lying eyes are telling them. Just like they didn’t believe in Steph, for some reason they don’t see what Buddy’s doing as translating to the NBA at the highest level."
While similarly undersized for a 2-guard, Hield's all-around offensive game and ability to stretch the floor with his excellent shooting make him well adapted to today's NBA, one that is being shaped by players like Curry.
Kris Dunn (Providence, PG, Jr.)
It's not always easy to turn on the TV and catch a Providence basketball game. The Friars play their ball in little Rhode Island and finished fourth in the Big East this year—not exactly the kind of team that gets a lot of prime-time attention.
So if you're unfamiliar with Providence point guard Kris Dunn's considerable game, that's OK. You'll have plenty of time to get acquainted with him in the NBA.
At 6'4" and 220 pounds, Dunn boasts great size for the point-guard position. He excels at beating defenders off the dribble, with his quick feet and smooth body control. Dunn spent the 2015-16 doing a whole lot of everything for Providence, averaging 16.0 points, 6.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game.
The NBA team that drafts Dunn is going to get a solid player who can fill a need right away, whether it's with his scoring ability or excellent court vision. There seems to be something of a consensus among mock drafters that Dunn will come off the board early in the draft.
DraftExpress has Dunn going at No. 5, while Sharp and ESPN's Chad Ford see Sacramento taking him with the seventh pick (Vecenie has the Kings taking him at No. 8).
While there is much to love about the junior's game, he does have a couple of weaknesses. Dunn lacks a consistent jumper. He shot 44.2 percent from the field this season but just 34.0 percent from three-point range.
However, FiveThirtyEight's Matt Giles noted in February that Dunn made some improvements to his shot between his sophomore and junior seasons:
"According to Synergy Sports Technology, Dunn’s spot-up numbers are still below average, but he now scores one point per catch-and-shoot possession — that’s pretty good, and a vast improvement over the .76 points he scored a year ago. And his jumper should only get better given the fundamental improvements he made in the offseason. Dunn is connecting on 37 percent of his threes while taking them at a far higher rate than last season — 25.9 percent of his field goal attempts, up from 19.7 last season. He now shoots with the perfect follow through — his arms extend and his hands rest like they’re in a cookie jar. The shots that were ugly bricks are beginning to show just a little more touch, like the game winner he hit against Creighton, which hit the flat section of the bucket that connects to the backboard, died on the rim, and finally rolled softly in.
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Dunn also turns the ball over quite a bit, to the tune of 3.5 giveaways per game in 2015-16. The sloppy play and jumper will have to improve, but thankfully for Dunn, they aren't anything that can't be fixed with a good work ethic and some coaching.
Denzel Valentine (Michigan State, SG, Sr.)
The NBA draft may still be a couple of months away, but it's never too early for fans and future pros alike to be thinking about the upcoming draft. Michigan State senior Denzel Valentine certainly is, as he's already given some thought to which team he would like to play for.
"If I had to choose, it wouldn’t hurt to play with Draymond over there with the Warriors," Valentine said, via 247Sports' Mike Wilson.
Sorry, Mr. Valentine, but you may be too good for the Warriors, at least from a draft perspective.
Golden State is probably going to end up with the 30th pick in the NBA draft, and Valentine probably will be long gone by then. After stuffing the box score with 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game as a senior and winning the Associated Press Player of the Year award in the process, Valentine has plenty of mock drafters picking him to go in the middle of the first round.
DraftExpress has him going at No. 17, as does Wasserman. Ford sees the Utah Jazz taking him at No. 16, while Vecenie is bullish on him and slots him in at No. 13 to the Phoenix Suns.
While a productive player with the requisite build to handle the rigors of the NBA—plus a 44.7 percent shooter from the ever-coveted three-point range—his lack of athleticism might make it tough for him to translate his game to the next level. Valentine's been well aware of his limitations for some time.
"My athleticism is always going to be the 'con' of my game, but I just have to improve that with lifting, agility drills, conditioning," he said last November, per USA Today's Joe Rexrode. "You know, I'm not going to sprawl into some Branden Dawson or something like that, but I can improve."
If Valentine can raise some eyebrows with better-than-expected measurables at the NBA combine in May, he could inch his way up teams' big boards.
He's going to be a liability defending quicker, more agile guards, but he can make up for those deficiencies with contributions on the offensive end as both scorer and facilitator.
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