High Seeds in 2016 NCAA Tournament That Won't Reach 2017 Big Dance

Power conferences nab the majority of the 68 spots in the NCAA tournament, so it sometimes feels like a school from one of those leagues just needs a winning record to play in the tourney. But only eight teams have made it each of the past six seasons, signaling an incredible potential for turnover from one year to the next.

Of the 43 schools from the top nine conferences—ACC, American, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Mountain West, Pac-12 and SEC—that made the 2015 tourney, 16 of them weren't part of the 2016 field. That includes notable high seeds such as No. 4 Georgetown, No. 5 Arkansas and No. 8 seeds North Carolina State and San Diego State. The Aztecs missed the tourney for the first time since 2009.

Louisville and SMU also didn't get a bid, but that was because of self- or NCAA-imposed bans.

Graduation, early departures to the NBA draft and other factors contributed to these down years in 2015-16, and the same will be the case next season. Expect a few teams that earned a No. 8 seed or better to be left out of the 2017 tourney, but which ones?

Using what we know about their 2016-17 rosters (and throwing in some speculation about pending or possible departures), we've picked six teams that are likely not to hear their names called on Selection Sunday next March.

California

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2016 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 4

Remember when Cal was a sexy Final Four pick in 2015-16? Yeah, that was fun.

Many projected that Cuonzo Martin's signing of two 5-star players—forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb—combined with veteran guards Jabari Bird, Jordan Mathews and Tyrone Wallace would make the Golden Bears the top team in the Pac-12 and one of the most dangerous in the country. And they were, at times, en route to earning the program's highest seed since the tourney expanded in 1985.

But Cal was knocked out in the first round by upstart Hawaii, in a game both Bird and Wallace missed because of injury. Even before that game, though, the wheels were starting to come off for 2016-17. Assistant coach Yann Hufnagel was fired the week of the NCAA tourney in the wake of sexual harassment claims, and 2016 signee Tyson Jolly asked for his release a week later.

Further departures are expected, as both Brown and Rabb are projected by DraftExpress as first-round picks, though neither has officially declared yet. Cal might also be shopping for a new coach, as Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle reported Wednesday that Martin was the "prime target" for the Georgia Tech vacancy that instead went to Memphis' Josh Pastner.

Martin could still seek to land another job, which combined with player losses would crush Cal's NCAA hopes for 2017.

Iowa

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

2016 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 7

Iowa was a potential No. 1 seed in January, but the second half its season was a near-constant downward spiral that belied the veteran lineup Fran McCaffery had at his disposal. The Hawkeyes were lucky to sneak past Temple in the first round before getting trampled in the second round by eventual national champion Villanova, cutting short what had been such a promising season.

Now, Iowa could be headed back to the drawing board, as its senior class that had made it to three straight NCAA tourneys moves on and takes the vast majority of the production with it.

Departed seniors Anthony Clemmons, Mike Gesell, Jarrod Uthoff and Adam Woodbury accounted for 56.1 percent of the scoring, 53.5 percent of the rebounds, 74.8 percent of the assists, 55.2 percent of the steals and 67.5 percent of the blocks. Additionally, freshman reserves Andrew Fleming and Brandon Hutton are both transferring.

Guard Peter Jok and forward Dom Uhl return, and a solid recruiting class led by 4-star power forward Tyler Cook is headed to Iowa City. But what remains and what's coming along don't match what the Hawkeyes are losing. Though they shouldn't revert to the program that missed the NCAA field seven years in a row from 2007 to 2013, they won't be on many preseason lists for a 2017 tourney lock.

Oregon State

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2016 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 7

Oregon State ended a 26-year NCAA tourney drought this past season, and the foundation coach Wayne Tinkle has built in just two years on the job all but ensures the Beavers won't have to wait that long to make another appearance. Just probably not in 2017, not unless do-everything guard Gary Payton II is miraculously granted another year of eligibility.

Payton led OSU in scoring (16.0), rebounding (7.8), assists (5.0) and steals (2.5) despite being only 6'3" and 175 pounds. More than anyone else, he was the reason the Beavers made their first NCAA trip since his dad starred there from 1987 to 1990.

Multiple players will need to replace his production as well as his leadership, and though some great young pieces are in place, it might take a year or two to return to the same level as the 2015-16 team. The freshman quartet of guards Derrick Bruce and Stephen Thompson Jr. and forwards Drew Eubanks and Tres Tinkle is going to be really good—just probably not good enough to carry Oregon State back to the Big Dance right away.

Purdue

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2016 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 5

Purdue's chances at a third consecutive NCAA bid rest in how the NBA evaluates two key players who have put their names into the mix for the draft. If neither wing Vince Edwards nor power forward Caleb Swanigan returns to school, the Boilermakers are going to struggle.

As a sophomore, Edwards was second on the team in scoring (11.3) and its top assist man at 2.9 per game. There's a good chance he comes back, but the same can't be said for Swanigan, the bruising 6'9", 260-pound freshman who had eight double-doubles and a team-high 8.3 rebounds per game. His departure would combine with the loss of senior center A.J. Hammons (15.0 points, 8.2 rebounds) to leave a major void in the frontcourt.

Purdue also loses senior guards Rapheal Davis (its best defender) and Johnny Hill, while guards Kendall Stephens and Grant Weatherford plan to transfer. Stephens, who averaged 6.1 points as a junior, "remains a member of our team and the door remains open for his return," coach Matt Painter said in a news release (h/t the Lafayette Journal and Courier).

There's not much coming in to offset the losses, at least at this point. Purdue's only signee is 4-star point guard Carsen Edwards, which means the school might be in the market for a graduate transfer.

Saint Joseph's

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2016 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 8

No team had a more productive duo than Saint Joseph's DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles, the only teammates in Division I to each average 17 points and seven rebounds per game. Their combined 35.5 points and 15.9 rebounds powered the Hawks to the Atlantic 10 tournament title and 28 wins, their most since 2004, and a near-upset of top-seeded Oregon in the second round.

And much like after the 2003-04 team that reached the Elite Eight, as well as the 2013-14 squad that won the A-10 tourney, Saint Joseph's is going to basically start from scratch again next season.

Miles was a senior, and Bembry has declared for the draft, signing with an agent and thus shutting the door on a potential return. Saint Joe's also graduates third-leading scorer Aaron Brown, which leaves juniors-to-be James Demery (8.1 points per game) and Shavar Newkirk (8.0) as the top returners.

Coach Phil Martelli is used to this kind of drop-off, as in his 21 seasons he's only once made consecutive NCAA tournament appearances.

West Virginia

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2016 NCAA Tournament Seed: No. 3

West Virginia's depth enabled it to play a frenetic style that forced turnovers and didn't concern itself with foul trouble, since nine players averaged 13 minutes per game and nobody played more than 27.7 per contest. Strong rebounding also helped the Mountaineers win 26 games and reach the Big 12 title game, but that hit-and-miss approach also resulted in a first-round exit at the hands of Stephen F. Austin.

It was a crapshoot as to what you'd get each game from West Virginia, and with three key players leaving the rotation, there's just as much uncertainty heading into 2016-17. It might not be enough to keep the Mountaineers from the NCAA tournament, but it may require them to adjust their game plan to get back.

Seniors Jaysean Paige and Jonathan Holton and junior Devin Williams—who has announced he will turn pro—were West Virginia's top three rebounders; Paige and Williams were the only players to average double figures in scoring.

Coach Bob Huggins has signed four players for next season, but none is among the top 240 in the 2016 class, per 247Sports.

All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.