2016 NFL Draft: 50 Predictions with Under a Month to Go
The 2016 NFL draft is right around the corner. From April 28-30, NFL franchises and fans will have sweaty palms as teams announce their picks. The right mix of filling need and acquiring the most talented players could change the face of an organization for the next handful of years.
I’ve constructed 50 predictions for what will happen over the course of the three-day event. Many will likely turn out untrue by the final selection, as even the best analysts and insiders have but the slightest clue for what could unfold. That’s what makes the draft so enjoyable.
Let’s take a look at what teams might do when the clock starts ticking and it’s time to make a decision. While it only takes one unexpected curveball on draft day to shift the proceedings to follow, enough information is available at this point to make educated guesses on where players will be picked and which strategies teams will employ.
Laremy Tunsil Will Be a Top-Two Pick
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The most talented player in the 2016 NFL draft is Ole Miss offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, and he’ll reap the rewards of playing a premium position in the 2016 NFL draft. The 6’5”, 310-pound left tackle was as dominant of a blocker as we’ve seen out of college since Tyron Smith played at USC. With the value of tackles swelling as pass-rushers become fiercer, Tunsil will not fall out of the top two picks.
Both teams at the top of the draft have a major need for a right tackle. The Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns have massive holes throughout their respective rosters, but beefing up the trenches has to be a priority.
The Titans allowed an NFL-high 54 sacks last year, as they lacked talent across their line. Adding Tunsil would allow them to move him or incumbent left tackle Taylor Lewan to the right side. Protecting quarterback Marcus Mariota must be priority No. 1 for the Titans to build a winning team.
Cleveland is a viable landing spot as well after it allowed right tackle Mitchell Schwartz to walk in free agency. While the Browns may be more likely to take a quarterback at No. 2 overall, adding the best talent should be a priority. If Tunsil is on the board, he fits the bill.
Jalen Ramsey Will Also Be a Top-Two Pick
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The first surprise of the 2016 NFL draft may happen with the No. 1 or No. 2 overall pick, as I predict Jalen Ramsey and Laremy Tunsil will be the first two players selected. Ramsey could easily slide into the starting free safety role for the Tennessee Titans or Cleveland Browns on day one and be the face of the defense for the next decade. Each team lacks a rangy safety with cornerback skills, and it’s rare for a player of Ramsey’s ilk to enter the NFL.
Most national pundits predict the Browns will select a quarterback second overall, but they also have the 32nd overall pick to use if they don’t love anyone at the top of the draft. Adding the best defensive back to enter the NFL since Eric Berry in 2010 would help to remake a limited defensive group.
If either team trades down, then the chances of Ramsey being a top-two pick are higher than Tunsil’s chances. Not every team needs an offensive tackle or values a possible right tackle as much as a long, elite athlete in the secondary. Ramsey will at worst be a top-five pick, but he could be as high as the first overall selection.
The Philadelphia Eagles Will Trade Up for a Quarterback
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The Philadelphia Eagles committed $34 million in guaranteed money this offseason to quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, but their quest to find a franchise signal-caller is far from over. Each player has a short-term contract with partial guarantees after 2016. If the right quarterback falls past the Cleveland Browns at No. 2 overall, I predict the Eagles will trade up.
The Dallas Cowboys’ presence at No. 4 could scare the Eagles into being aggressive. After Philly moved up five spots in the Byron Maxwell and Kiko Alonso trade with the Miami Dolphins, another jump up wouldn't cost too much. A mid-round pick could close the deal with the San Diego Chargers.
It’s clear the Eagles are investigating each top quarterback option this offseason. Owner Jeffrey Lurie has personally met with every top quarterback, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com. If there was ever a sign that a team is strongly considering drafting a quarterback, having the owner interview each candidate is a loud statement.
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Myles Jack Will Be Announced as a Safety, Not Linebacker
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Arguably the best athlete in the 2016 NFL draft class is UCLA linebacker Myles Jack. He’s the latest linebacker from the dynamic trio that played together in 2013, along with current Minnesota Vikings Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks. Jack is the youngest but also the most explosive player from that unit and is projected as a top-five pick.
His ability to drop into coverage from the linebacker and nickel cornerback spots makes him a defensive weapon for coordinators to employ. While Jack’s production is marginal and his experience as a run-stopper is limited, teams have historically been willing to wager on athleticism. Considering his skill set, it makes sense to use him in a versatile role.
According to Bleacher Report Lead NFL Draft Writer Matt Miller, the San Diego Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars view him more as a safety, although the Jaguars could use him as a hybrid. With this in mind, I predict NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will announce him as a safety. Either team would be a good situation for Jack to ease into his new position.
The First Defensive End Drafted Will Be DeForest Buckner
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While the most dominant defensive end in 2015 was Ohio State’s Joey Bosa, it’ll be Oregon’s DeForest Buckner who will hear his name called first. The 6’7”, 290-pound lineman brings versatility, great size and well-rounded skills to either a 3-4 or 4-3 front. He’s a disruptive force who can also chase down plays from the back side.
Teams within the top five have lined up visits with Buckner. According to Rand Getlin of NFL Network, both the San Diego Chargers and Dallas Cowboys have met with the giant defender. His range seems to be anywhere from the third overall pick to the seventh pick in terms of on-field fit.
With 36 tackles for loss and 18 sacks amassed throughout his career, Buckner appears to be an instant contributor. It helps that his best pass-rushing snaps came as a 3-technique since nickel packages can easily accommodate him sliding inside. He checks all of the boxes that evaluators look for in a prospect.
Vernon Hargreaves Will Not Be Drafted in the Top 10
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The NFL’s transition into a pass-heavy league has prioritized pass-rushers and cornerbacks more than ever as defenses try to limit the efficiency of opposing offenses. The 2015 class of corners proved to be good as Marcus Peters, Ronald Darby and others had standout rookie campaigns. But it’s unusual for secondary members to play well as young players.
Technique and discipline are two areas that separate the good cornerbacks from the bad ones. It often takes years to master either, if ever at all. Florida cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III is the closest thing to a finished product in the 2016 class, although I predict he will fall out of the top 10. The 20-year-old is talented but does not fit into many NFL ideals.
Many teams will instantly devalue Hargreaves because of his 5’10” stature, as length is a trump card that cornerbacks can use to create difficult passing windows. Hargreaves is a sticky coverage man for the most part but has enough holes in his game that it will cause him to drop. He struggled against top competition in 2015 when he wasn’t given safety help, which created concern that he’s not fast enough to be left on an island.
Few teams run off-man coverage with consistent safety help, and Hargreaves is built specifically for that. He could slide into the teens.
San Francisco Finds Its Quarterback of the Future
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While the Colin Kaepernick situation plays itself out, the San Francisco 49ers have made it clear he is not the future at the position. If head coach Chip Kelly and the front office were sold on Kaepernick, they would have never opened trade discussions. They showed their hand by negotiating with the Denver Broncos.
The writing is on the wall that a new quarterback will soon be in the building. Blaine Gabbert also isn’t a viable option past 2016. If the draft plays out as I’m predicting, the 49ers will have their chance at Cal quarterback Jared Goff, who is an ideal fit for Kelly’s precision-based offense.
The 6’4”, 215-pound quarterback exhibited uncanny poise, accuracy and anticipation throughout his time at Cal. He’s just 21 years old but has advanced poise and ability to make those around him better. Kelly and Goff could form a terrific coach and quarterback duo for the foreseeable future.
Josh Doctson Will Be the First Wide Receiver Drafted
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After destroying Big 12 defenses to the tune of 1,326 yards and 14 touchdowns in only 10 games last season, wide receiver Josh Doctson has continued his string of dominance this offseason. He blew his competition out of the water with a stellar NFL Scouting Combine performance. Most notable were his terrific jumps, including a 41-inch vertical and 131-inch broad jump.
Doctson was tremendous at bailing out quarterback Trevone Boykin on jump balls over the previous two seasons. Expect more of the same in the NFL, where the margin for error is smaller. Giving Doctson to a young quarterback is especially intriguing since he can earn trust on difficult catches quickly.
With Laquon Treadwell dropping due to a mediocre 40-yard dash, Doctson will be drafted before any other receiver. Potential fits include the New York Giants at 10th overall, New Orleans Saints at 12th overall and the Detroit Lions at 16th overall. His ability to play in the slot or outside only makes him that much more valuable in a vertical passing attack.
Ezekiel Elliott Will Slide out of the Top 10
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The best offensive skill player in the 2016 NFL draft class is Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott. The 6’0”, 225-pound back is the complete package who can gain five yards per carry, pass-block at a high level and catch the ball out of the backfield. He is thoroughly refined in every phase of the game.
If not for the recent trend of diminishing value for running backs, Elliott would likely be a top-five pick. But teams seem more content with average players heading their backfield, as attrition can deplete the unit quickly. The two teams in the top 10 with a significant need for a running back are the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants, but they also must solidify other positions with their premium picks.
That leaves the Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders as other viable candidates for Elliott’s services. The two-time 1,800-yard rusher will be a stellar back regardless. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks predicted he’ll be a Pro Bowl player as a rookie, and I agree.
Two Clemson Defenders Will Be Drafted in the Top 15 Picks
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The run on first-round edge-rushers will start early in this class as DeForest Buckner and Joey Bosa are selected in the top six. If my predictions prove true, then the best edge player left on the board will benefit from the number of teams that need an additional pass-rusher. As a result, Clemson products Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd will be top-15 picks.
Lawson is ranked as the 13th-best prospect in the 2016 class by CBS Sports. The 6’3”, 269-pound right defensive end is a solid run-stopper already and flashes fantastic pass-rush potential. If he can harness his physical gifts into a consistent force, he could be a steal, even as a top-15 pick.
His teammate Kevin Dodd is no slouch, either. He’s 6’5”, 275 pounds and coming off a breakout season with 12.5 sacks. He showed natural pass-rush talents as the strong-side end and has an NFL-ready frame. Miami and Tampa Bay, which run 4-3 defenses, are natural fits for Dodd.
Ronnie Stanley Will Be Second Left Tackle Drafted
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The offensive tackle market is as white-hot as that of the pass-rushers and quarterbacks. It’s not a coincidence, since tackles must block the former and protect the latter. Run-blocking is important as well but not nearly to the extent as pass-blocking. Notre Dame left tackle Ronnie Stanley will benefit from this.
Stanley has excellent size at 6’5” and 318 pounds, along with an impressive 35 ⅝” arm length. His ability to mirror speed-rushers is what will endear him to teams. It’s hard to find tackles who move as smoothly as he can.
There are concerns with Stanley such as his playing strength and work ethic, per Matt Lombardo of NJ Advance Media. Stanley refuted claims that he loves basketball more than football at the combine press conference. But we’ve seen how quickly players who don’t love football free-fall out of the league.
The latest buzz could be a smear campaign, or it could be legitimate. I predict Stanley’s value is just too high for a team in the top 12 to pass on him. That would ensure his status as the second tackle drafted behind Laremy Tunsil.
Joey Bosa Is Still a Top-Six Pick
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Although Ohio State All-American defensive end Joey Bosa won't be the first defensive end off the board, he will still be a top-six pick. The 6’5”, 269-pound wrecking ball is still only 20 years old but was an overwhelming force in college football over the last two years. He finished his three-year career with 51 tackles for loss and 26 sacks.
At times Bosa demanded triple-teams with his incredible lower-body explosion and sheer power. He’s not the fastest pass-rusher, which limits his upside. He’s not Von Miller, but his game is reminiscent of Cameron Jordan's; he would have been a no-brainer top-six pick if teams knew how productive he’d be.
Bosa has come a long way as a person since his suspension at the beginning of 2015. According to Joan Niesen of Campus Rush, he’s separated himself from the celebrity status that came with the Buckeyes’ 2015 national championship. This was a wise decision, as Bosa is too special of a talent to go to waste. His focus on being great will reward him and the team that invests in him.
A’Shawn Robinson Will Be a Saint
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The New Orleans Saints have been dealing with a tight salary-cap situation for the last several seasons. It has cost them dearly when they have swung and missed in the draft and free agency because of limited assets. Now, as the dead cap starts to clear up in the next few years, the Saints must plug holes throughout their roster effectively.
One player who will likely appeal to their front office and coaching staff is Alabama defensive lineman A’Shawn Robinson. He isn’t much of a pass-rusher, instead specializing as a gap-eater. But he’s easily the best player who executes his role in the class, and the Saints lack a capable defensive tackle of his ilk.
Putting Robinson along the Saints defensive line with Cameron Jordan, Bobby Richardson and Nick Fairley makes that front formidable. This isn’t a sexy pick like an edge-rusher, but the Saints will be quite happy when Robinson helps open opportunities for his teammates. The 21-year-old also helps this defense get younger and tougher.
The Miami Dolphins Will Draft a Defensive Player
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The Miami Dolphins traded out of the eighth overall pick to the 13th selection in order to grab two defensive starters. The trade to acquire cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Kiko Alonso will help jump-start their defensive rebuild. Adding another defensive player at No. 13 will further solidify what was an apathetic unit in 2015.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph could use another cornerback across from Maxwell. Miami has quality slot options in Jamar Taylor and Bobby McCain, so it’s conceivable this pick will start right away. Length is key for zone cornerbacks such as Maxwell, which means Houston’s William Jackson III and Ohio State’s Eli Apple are the best fits.
If Miami wants to bulk up the defensive line with a young pass-rusher, no one would complain. Defensive ends Cameron Wake and Mario Williams are 34 and 31 years old, respectively. The defensive tackle group is thin behind superstar Ndamukong Suh. Taking the best available defensive player is a sound strategy.
The Los Angeles Rams Will Draft Paxton Lynch
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So far I’ve predicted the Philadelphia Eagles will trade up for a quarterback and the San Francisco 49ers will stand pat to select their next signal-caller. The third quarterback will come off the board with the 15th overall pick to the Los Angeles Rams. Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch would be a good value and great fit.
The 6’7”, 244-pounder can be head coach Jeff Fisher’s next Steve McNair if the franchise is willing to ease him into a starting job. While Lynch needs seasoning, he’d be the most talented player on the depth chart, and it’s not close. Giving him a simplified offense based around running back Todd Gurley would be one way to make sure the 22-year-old isn’t too overwhelmed.
The Rams wouldn’t be able to trade down and be comfortable that Lynch would still be on the board. He’s worked out with the New York Jets, who hold the 20th overall pick, per Albert Breer of NFL Network. That’s the next logical landing place for the high-potential playmaker.
William Jackson III Will Be Drafted in the Top 14
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For the opposite reasons that Vernon Hargreaves III will drop out of the top 10, Houston cornerback William Jackson III will land no lower than 14th overall. The 6’0” 189-pound corner demonstrated great ball skills throughout his career, finishing with eight interceptions and 38 defensed passes in three years. He has a knack for finding the ball, which is great news for his outlook.
Jackson is experienced in zone and man coverages, as Houston varied its looks between Cover 3 and off-man looks. His length and speed are ideal for the next level. He blazed a 4.37 40-yard dash time at the combine to solidify his first-round status.
ESPN.com’s Matt Bowen also sees the high upside in Jackson. “Jackson is a smooth athlete with the transition ability to flip his hips and go," Bowen writes. "[I] like his balance and footwork in his backpedal, and he has the talent to develop even more as a true press cornerback with pro coaching."
Finding the right fit for Jackson is easy. The San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders could benefit from drafting him.
Jack Conklin Will Stay a Michigan Resident
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Arguably the best power-blocking offensive tackle in the 2016 NFL draft class is Michigan State’s Jack Conklin. The brute run-blocker was a key cog for the Spartans over the last three seasons. The 6’6”, 308-pound tackle has ideal strength and 35" arms to complement a road-grading mindset.
Conklin tested well at the NFL Scouting Combine, which helps project potential improvement at the next level. He doesn’t always play as explosively and loosely as he tested, which is one sign that he needs to improve his technique. This isn’t uncommon for most young tackles.
NFL Media Draft Expert Lance Zierlein compared the 21-year-old to former Philadelphia Eagles tackle Jon Runyan, writing that he “possesses top-flight size and strength at the tackle position and has the technique and recovery athleticism to make up for his average foot quickness.”
Conklin can seamlessly step in as a starter for the Detroit Lions. They could select him with the 16th overall pick and then move incumbent Riley Reiff to his more natural right tackle spot. This would help the Lions fix two spots along their offensive line.
Noah Spence Is Still a Top-20 Pick
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After dominating the 2016 Senior Bowl against top seniors from across the country, Eastern Kentucky Noah Spence was one of the hottest names in the draft community. He displayed the superior pass-rush skills that led to early success at Ohio State before his career took a major turn. He was permanently suspended from the Big Ten due to drug use and ended up at Eastern Kentucky for 2015.
His name had been routinely included in the top 10 of mock drafts after the Senior Bowl, but now he’s being mocked in the late 20s and second round by all four NFL.com experts. Why the sudden drop in value? An average combine performance may have lowered some expectations, but he’s still arguably the second-best edge-rusher in the class.
It’s possible that his interviews didn’t go as well as teams had hoped. One NFL general manager told NFL Network’s Kimberly Jones via Chase Goodbread that he can’t trust Spence yet. Nevertheless, too many teams need Spence’s talent in the top 20, and this latest movement could be a play by front offices to see his stock drop.
He’ll be among the first 20 players selected despite the sudden drop from the media.
The Washington Redskins Address the Defensive Line
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Washington Redskins general manager Scot McCloughan inherited a difficult situation in 2015 but has helped change the outlook of the franchise with savvy moves. Gone are the days of reliance on free agency, and now the Redskins will re-sign in-house free agents and focus on the draft. It also helps that head coach Jay Gruden and quarterback Kirk Cousins took steps to legitimize their presence last year.
McCloughan must now address the glaring weakness on the roster: the defensive line. Washington has several rotation-worthy players along the unit, but it needs two or three starters to complete its 3-4 front. Maybe not coincidentally, it’s a great draft for the Redskins to find multiple starters. The 2016 class is deep with defensive linemen.
Realistic options for the Redskins include Baylor defensive tackle Andrew Billings, Mississippi State end Chris Jones, Alabama defensive tackle Jarran Reed and Alabama defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson.
The Houston Texans Start a Run on Receivers
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The Houston Texans have gone all-in on improving what was a woeful offense in 2015. Signing quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller could drastically improve the team. The poor play from Brian Hoyer and injury issues with Arian Foster led to these new additions.
The Texans will continue to add talent to this offense. They’ve drafted defensive players with 11 of their last 13 first-round picks. It’s time to boost a mediocre passing attack.
Giving receiver DeAndre Hopkins help is task No. 1. Once the Texans pick their receiver of choice with the 22nd overall pick, they’re followed by receiver-needy teams in Minnesota and Cincinnati. This is the range we’ll see Baylor’s Corey Coleman, Ohio State’s Michael Thomas and possibly Notre Dame’s Will Fuller go off the board.
Connor Cook Will Be Picked Between 28 and 31
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There will be a fourth first-round quarterback in the 2016 NFL draft. Despite facing criticism for his inconsistent accuracy and character, Michigan State’s Connor Cook will benefit from quarterback-needy teams at the end of the first round and early second round. Taking him at the end of the first will give the fifth-year option for an extra year of control.
The Kansas City Chiefs at No. 28 begin the watch area for Cook to be selected. Kansas City may trade out of the spot or decide to invest in an eventual Alex Smith replacement. Behind the Chiefs are the Arizona Cardinals, who need an heir apparent to Carson Palmer.
Finally, the Denver Broncos have zero qualified starters on their roster at the moment. Cook could start this season as a rookie for them, barring a trade for a veteran better than Mark Sanchez. Denver has the ability to ease him into a simplified offense where he’d be surrounded by great playmakers and a terrific defense.
The Seattle Seahawks Extend Texas A&M First-Round Streak
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Each of the last three drafts has seen a Texas A&M left tackle come off the board in the first round. Luke Joeckel went No. 2 overall in 2013, Jake Matthews sixth overall in 2014 and Cedric Ogbuehi 21st overall in 2015. This year it’s on right tackle Germain Ifedi to extend the school’s unique achievement.
Ifedi is another athletic freak out of Texas A&M, standing 6’6”, 324 pounds with a 36” arm length. He instantly stands out for his movement ability for such a big player. He’s effortless in the run game as he works his way to the second level of the defense.
Ifedi is a flawed prospect, though. He’ll either play right tackle or offensive guard in the NFL as his technique is too inconsistent to be relied upon. Kicking him inside to guard could be the most beneficial move, but players with his athleticism must be given a chance to succeed at tackle first since the position is considered more valuable.
One team should love the upside of Ifedi and also have the need for his talent. The Seattle Seahawks sit with the 26th overall pick and must address their weak offensive line. Adding Ifedi could plug a hole at tackle or guard while also giving them a potential star for the long term.
Reggie Ragland Will Be Selected by the New York Jets
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The New York Jets came within one game of making the AFC playoffs in 2015, but former head coach Rex Ryan got his revenge on his previous employer when the Buffalo Bills knocked them off in Week 17. Current head coach Todd Bowles and Co. had a terrific first season nonetheless, and they have built a strong roster ready to compete again this year. Adding an instant impact player with the 20th overall pick would be key.
While the Jets have long-term needs along the offensive line, finding an heir apparent at middle linebacker who can also play right now is a top priority. Fortunately for the Jets, Alabama star Reggie Ragland could fall to them. If he’s on the board, this is an easy decision to make.
Current inside linebackers David Harris and Taiwan Jones are similar to Ragland, but his pedigree and ability to impact the game should displace Jones as a starter. As the 32-year-old Harris edges closer to the end of his career, Ragland can take more responsibility in the coming years as the alpha dog of the unit.
Jarran Reed Drops to the Green Bay Packers
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The Green Bay Packers have been among the least active franchises in free agency over the past decade, seemingly always biding their time until the draft. The formula has worked to an extent, but passing on key free agents also puts pressure on the scouts and coaching staff to identify and develop talent. It also has limited the team, as it has paid for draft misses in recent years.
With needs at wide receiver, defensive line and linebacker once again, the Packers must find several players ready to step in and start. This is especially the case along the defensive line, as Mike Daniels is the only surefire starter right now. The nose tackle and left defensive end positions simply lack quality options at this time.
The perfect complement to Daniels would be a run-stuffing force such as Alabama defensive end Jarran Reed. The 6’3”, 307-pounder doesn’t create much of a pass rush, but it’s easier to find penetrating defensive linemen as rookies than it is quality run-stoppers. He’s the ideal fit in this defense and would immediately claim a starting job.
Robert Nkemdiche Falls out of the First Round
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Every year one or two players who have a tremendous upside wreck their careers with off-field antics and questionable dedication to the on-field product. This year that dubious moniker belongs to Ole Miss defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche. The impressive 6’3”, 294-pounder has some of the most impressive tape I’ve watched this year but will also take entire games off.
The bust factor is considerably high for Nkemdiche. He’s an explosive athlete who at times looked like a top-five value, but he could come out in the next quarter and disappear. That dynamic is a red flag, but it's only one small part of his puzzle.
The bizarre off-field concerns he has stems from a hotel incident that occurred before the 2015 Sugar Bowl, which will hurt his stock. Like Dorial Green-Beckham in last year’s draft, Nkemdiche will be an SEC star who falls to the second round before hearing his name called. No general manager will risk a premium pick on someone with such uncertainty.
The Arizona Cardinals Grab a Cornerback
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The Arizona Cardinals have had a successful offseason thus far, at least on paper. Acquiring a premier pass-rusher in Chandler Jones and a quality offensive guard in Evan Mathis immediately upgraded the roster for 2016. There are just two positions that could use an infusion of talent via the 2016 NFL draft.
Outside of Patrick Peterson, the Cardinals must find a capable cornerback who can step in and start right away. The rest of the depth chart is filled with special team and slot cornerback specialists. Those players have great value, but adding more talent outside has to be a priority.
The end of the first round is a good area to take advantage of a falling talent. Ohio State cornerback Eli Apple or Miami’s Artie Burns would add that length. Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander could be the most talented player on the board, even if he’s not especially long or fast.
Derrick Henry Will Be Drafted by the Carolina Panthers
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The defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers enjoyed a terrific 2015 campaign as they defied what pundits thought was possible. Their unlikely 18-2 season record nearly ended with a Super Bowl victory, but the Panthers fell short in the Big Game. Instead of taking steps back in free agency with limited cap space, they were able to improve their roster.
Adding cornerback Brandon Boykin and defensive tackle Paul Soliai and retaining defensive end Charles Johnson ensures this team can now focus on adding impact players in the draft. Carolina doesn’t need to force any of its selections due to need. With the 30th overall pick, the Panthers will select Alabama running back Derrick Henry.
The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner is a devastating downhill runner who will fit perfectly into the Panthers’ inside zone and power rush attack. He exploded as a junior with 2,219 yards and 28 touchdowns, leading the FBS in both statistics. He’d form a dynamic and dangerous duo with current starter Jonathan Stewart.
The Kansas City Chiefs Trade out of the First Round
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As predicted in an earlier slide, the Kansas City Chiefs are right in the range for where Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook will be drafted. The Chiefs could be an option for him, but they’re also the best candidate to trade down and reap the rewards of a desperate franchise what wants a fifth-year option on him. Kansas City may target an offensive lineman to boost its trench play.
Trading out of the first round to get a guard would be the best way to add value and a starter. Teams with early second-round picks may offer an early fourth-round pick or a 2017 sweetener to accomplish the trade. Dropping down and taking the player you’d likely have taken anyway is what the best franchises in the league do.
If the Chiefs are indeed targeting an interior lineman, then Kansas State’s Cody Whitehair and Stanford’s Josh Garnett project as excellent interior players. Whitehair could transition from left tackle to left guard, while Garnett has right guard experience. Either would be a significant talent upgrade for this offense.
College with Most First-Round Picks: Ohio State
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The Ohio State Buckeyes were loaded with talent the last two seasons under head coach Urban Meyer. While that’s not likely to end soon, the 2016 class is deep with Buckeyes. According to CBS Sports, 13 of them have a draftable grade, and nine are projected to be first- or second-round picks.
It’s unlikely that nine fit into the top 31 picks, but at least six will in this prediction. Defensive end Joey Bosa, running back Ezekiel Elliott, wide receiver Michael Thomas, cornerback Eli Apple, linebacker Darron Lee and offensive tackle Taylor Decker are impact talents at their respective positions. It’s also easy to find natural fits for them.
The University of Miami set the all-time record of seven first-round picks from one school in 2004. It’s unlikely Ohio State eclipses that number, but it will tie it. Von Bell or Tyvis Powell would need to sneak into the first for the record to belong to the Buckeyes.
No Tight Ends Drafted in Round 1
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The 2016 tight end class had potential to feature several first-round talents until the early entrant deadline passed and top options returned to school. Ole Miss' Evan Engram, Alabama’s O.J. Howard and Virginia Tech’s Bucky Hodges all decided to play in college this upcoming season. While their decisions must be respected and could be the best for their future, each had the chance to make the first round of the draft.
This year’s crop of tight end talent is quite underwhelming. Much like the 2015 class, there are a few players who look like good one-dimensional receivers or blockers. But there’s no clear future star in this group.
For the second year in a row, no tight end will be drafted in Round 1. Arkansas tight end Hunter Henry will be the closest, as the 6’5”, 250-pound receiving specialist could appeal to offenses in need of a slot hybrid. The depth behind him is light, and another tight end may not come off the board until the third round.
Notre Dame Linebacker Jaylon Smith Gets Drafted in Round 3
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When the NFL has its medical rechecks on April 14 and 15, no player will have more on the line than former Notre Dame star linebacker Jaylon Smith. The 20-year-old suffered a knee injury against Ohio State in the 2015 Fiesta Bowl, which drastically changed the fate of his draft positioning. He was a consensus top-10 player prior to tearing his ACL and possibly suffering nerve damage in his knee.
Using recent drafted injured prospects as the basis for where Smith can expect to be drafted with a positive diagnosis, I found the third round is the most likely landing spot for the middle linebacker. As seen with Oregon star cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who was released last week by the Cleveland Browns (and claimed off of waivers by the Miami Dolphins), there’s no guarantee that everyone can overcome a knee injury.
The third round makes the most sense, as compensatory picks give extra ammunition for certain teams to take fliers on players. Those picks cannot be traded, so taking a high-upside player like Smith could turn out to be a franchise-changing decision. And if he never fully recovers, it’s not as if team invested a first-round pick.
Braxton Miller Will Be Drafted in Round 2
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The most explosive playmaker with the ball in his hands this year is Ohio State’s Braxton Miller. The electric former quarterback seamlessly transitioned into a hybrid running back and receiver as a senior after a second shoulder surgery. Now, the 6’1”, 201-pound receiver will be drafted among the top 63 picks in the draft.
Miller only caught 25 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns, but he made jaw-dropping receptions at times. He saved the most special moments for after the catch as well, proving to be a human joystick in the open field. He’s a rare player who creates space out of thin air.
Sports Illustrated’s Doug Farrar ranked Miller as a top-50 player in his annual list. It’s easy to see why Miller would end up so high despite his limited experience at receiver. He’s a standout athlete with a natural feel for the game.
No Interior Offensive Linemen Go in Round 1
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The 2016 draft class appears to be deep with quality Day 2 and mid-round offensive guards and centers. Since interior linemen are rarely drafted before the late first round, only the most exceptional usually sneak into the first night of the draft. This isn’t to say quality guards and centers aren’t readily available later, but teams tend to devalue the positions.
It’s hard to nail down where a guard or center could go in the first round this year. The best candidates are the Arizona Cardinals, who need a center, and the Kansas City Chiefs, who need a guard. But those teams also have other roster deficiencies to consider before investing in those positions.
Alabama center Ryan Kelly is the highest-rated center in the draft and the only interior lineman ranked in CBS Sports’ top 32. Teams must decide if the drop-off from Kelly to second- or third-round options such Notre Dame’s Nick Martin and Michigan State’s Jack Allen is small enough to pass on Kelly.
Four FCS Prospects Are Taken on Day 2
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The biggest name from the FCS is obviously North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz. He’s a safe bet to be picked in the top 10 overall. He’s not our concern for this prediction as we move to Day 2.
Over the course of 68 Day 2 picks, four players will come out of the FCS. No more, no less. The first will be South Carolina State defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. The 6’1”, 309-pound 3-technique has been a star of the all-star circuit and combine.
Next, in order, will be North Dakota State offensive tackle Joe Haeg, Grand Valley State defensive end Matt Judon and Southern Utah safety Miles Killebrew. Despite the narrative around some small-school prospects, many fine NFL players have come from lesser-known programs. Watch for these FCS stars to become solid NFL players early in their careers.
Mackensie Alexander Slides out of First Round
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Even with the rising value of quality cornerbacks, NFL franchises will not be kind to players who lack length or playmaking ability. Like Florida’s Vernon Hargreaves III, Clemson star cornerback Mackensie Alexander will suffer because of his 5’10” frame and 31 ⅛” arms. I’ve predicted Hargreaves to drop out of the top 10 already, but Alexander will slip out of the first round entirely.
It’s not that Alexander is a bad player. But the third-year sophomore is still quite raw, and his average athletic tests failed to get the momentum spinning upward. With his lack of interceptions, what is Alexander’s trump card to find success in the NFL?
He is a sticky man-coverage cornerback, and his youth means there’s plenty of time to improve upon his sometimes shaky technique. He needs time to refine his footwork and play strength, which means he’ll be a non-factor in his first year. That will cause him to be a Day 2 selection.
The Cleveland Browns Draft Cardale Jones
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The Cleveland Browns went best player available with their first-round pick with our second prediction, and now it’s time to circle around for their quarterback. At the top of the second round, the Browns will take Ohio State’s Cardale Jones.
This move is about more than just picking the local kid, though.
The 6’5”, 253-pound playmaker enjoyed a breakout 2014 run before the Buckeyes lost offensive coordinator Tom Herman to the University of Houston. He thrived going vertical and working off a strong run game. As Ohio State transitioned to a less aggressive passing attack in 2015, Jones and J.T. Barrett both struggled to adjust.
Browns head coach Hue Jackson has experience working with big-armed quarterbacks who can extend plays, which should draw him to Jones. Although he’s raw and inexperienced, he has major natural talent and confidence. He’d be in line to start in 2017 if Robert Griffin III cannot lock down the job.
There Will Be Four First-Round Trades
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To this point I have predicted two specific trades. First, the Philadelphia Eagles will move up from the No. 8 overall pick to draft a quarterback, and then the Kansas City Chiefs will drop out of the first round. But there will be two more deals somewhere in between.
The team with the most picks this year is the San Francisco 49ers. They own 12 total picks. Although they may stay at seventh overall, don’t be surprised if general manager Trent Baalke gets aggressive and jumps back into the first round. This team has major needs on both sides of the ball, so adding high-impact talents should precede adding depth right now.
Another candidate to trade in the first round is the Oakland Raiders. General manager Reggie McKenzie has produced a fantastic offseason and can now maneuver to maximize future assets. He could drop into the mid-20s or jump the Miami Dolphins if Ezekiel Elliott is on the board.
The Safety Run Will Begin at Pick No. 43 Overall
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The 2016 class is deep with quality safety prospects, especially if one is looking for versatility. One-dimensional safeties are a thing of the past as defenses lose positional rigidness. Moving a safety to corner or linebacker for a handful of snaps and then back is not uncommon anymore.
The value for the position grows in the mid-second round comes, as there’s a lot of need for talent in that range. Florida’s Keanu Neal, Ohio State’s Von Bell and Tyvis Powell, Maryland’s Sean Davis, Boise State’s Darian Thompson and LSU's Jalen Mills all belong in this area. The run will start at No. 43 overall with the Los Angeles Rams.
After the Rams, the Oakland Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers have need at the position. This makes the sweet spot run from 43rd to 58th overall. We could see as many as seven safeties come off the board.
Seven Quarterbacks Will Be Drafted in the Top 100 Picks
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There may not be a clear superstar prospect at the top of this quarterback class, but there is impressive depth of roster-worthy players. Whether a team is looking for a developmental type with upside to improve or a reliable backup on a cheap contract, the top 100 picks will see seven quarterbacks hear their names called. It’s not often that this many quality signal-callers are in the same class.
The well-known names are Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook. They’ve been predicted to be first-round picks already in this article. But don’t forget about the Day 2 candidates.
Other options who could become starters in the next few years include Cardale Jones, Dak Prescott and Christian Hackenberg. All of these names will be gone by the start of the fourth round. This year offers too good of an opportunity for teams to stash gifted passers and see if they can mold them into starters.
The Dallas Cowboys Will Draft Devontae Booker in Round 3
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Since the Dallas Cowboys signed Alfred Morris to a multiyear deal in free agency, it’s unlikely they add another running back until a great value presents itself. Finding the running back of the future may not happen in this class, but the Cowboys would be wise to draft a well-rounded back who can play right now.
Utah running back Devontae Booker would be a terrific third-round selection for the Cowboys. The 5’11”, 219-pound back is a legitimate receiver who could earn third-down snaps early in his career. He also proved to be efficient with his touches at Utah, producing five yards per carry.
Booker does have concerns about his usage in college. He averaged almost 30 touches per game as a runner and receiver in two seasons. Moving to a part-time role in tandem with Morris and Darren McFadden should keep his body fresh.
Safety Kevin Byard Will Be First Combine Snub Drafted
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Safeties who can drop into single-high coverage and make up ground quickly to close on the ball are rare and valuable. Entire secondary schemes can revolve around these game-changers. While Middle Tennessee State safety Kevin Byard may not be the next Earl Thomas, his resume should have earned him a place on the NFL Scouting Combine roster.
In 48 career games, Byard amassed 318 total tackles and 19 interceptions. His comfort in a variety of roles should be appealing as well. He’s more of a coverage player who can improve his angles on tackle attempts, but there’s a place in the league for ball-hawking safeties.
Byard lit up his pro day with a 4.49 40-yard dash, 22 bench-press reps, 38-inch vertical and 10-foot broad jump, per Aldo Giovanni Amato of the Tennessean. He should hear his name called early on Day 3.
Roberto Aguayo Will Be a Top-100 Selection
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Sometimes, there’s a perfect storm for a special team ace to find his way into the first 100 picks of the draft. Nate Kaeding was a third-round pick by the San Diego Chargers in 2004. The New York Jets selected Mike Nugent 47th overall from Ohio State one year later in 2005.
With the NFL rules pushing extra points back to 33 yards, the next great kicker prospect will benefit. Florida State's Roberto Aguayo made all 198 extra-point attempts in three seasons and hit 88.5 percent of his field goals. He’s become nearly automatic at this point in his early career.
NFL Network Draft Expert Daniel Jeremiah predicts Aguayo will be off the board by the end of the third round as well. “I think we could see a kicker kind of challenge right on the edge there, second round (to) third round," he wrote. "I don't think (Florida State's) Roberto Aguayo gets out of the third round." A playoff contender that must get more production from the position could consider him, such as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Oakland Raiders.
Tom Hackett Will Be a Top-100 Selection
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The last time a punter was selected in the top 100 picks, the Jacksonville Jaguars infamously drafted Bryan Anger over quarterback Russell Wilson in 2012. The best punter prospect in years will accomplish the same feat this year. He is Utah’s two-time All American Tom Hackett.
Hackett blasted a career-high and NCAA-best average of 48 yards per punt in 2015. The year prior he led the country in total punt yards with 3,736. From 2014 to 2015 he averaged 47.2 yards per punt.
That mark would have been the fifth-best in the NFL last season. This would be a considerable upgrade for teams such as the Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals, who were among the bottom four teams in punting. Investing a top-100 selection may seem steep, but it would ensure a premium punter is on the roster for cheap over the next four seasons.
The New England Patriots Will Complete Two Trades
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The New England Patriots are always among the most active teams during the NFL draft. This year will be no different, as the Patriots have already began their frenzy with less than one month to go. Recent trades involving draft picks include their acquisition of tight end Martellus Bennett from the Chicago Bears and sending defensive end Chandler Jones to Arizona for a second-round pick.
Two more trades will happen for the Patriots throughout the three-day event. Armed with 11 picks, there is no chance that many rookies make it to the roster this season. Don’t be surprised if Bill Belichick moves up in the second round to get a better player or even moves this year’s picks for 2017 selections.
This team can afford to take big swings on talent because of its excellent culture and player development. It’s no coincidence the Patriots never have character issues. This is a unified franchise that is always working toward one goal: the Super Bowl.
Scooby Wright III Will Be a Day 3 Pick
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Production is a great thing, but it always needs context as to how and where the numbers came from. A wrap-up tackle is not the same as a diving stop, either, especially when projecting to the NFL. Spacing changes as the hash marks are closer together and athletes are much bigger and faster.
This will undoubtedly harm former Arizona star Scooby Wright III. Despite his jaw-dropping statistics in 2014, he struggled to do anything but shoot downhill gaps. There’s value in that role as a weak-side linebacker, but he also tested horribly at the combine.
Athleticism isn’t everything, but it’s difficult to overcome athletic comparisons like Shawn Loiseau, Orie Lemon and Blair Phillips. According to Mock Draftable, that’s the company Wright’s combine put him in. Spending anything more than a late-round pick on him would be risky.
Vernon Adams Will Be a Fifth-Round Pick
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Sometimes, there’s a major disconnect between media evaluators and NFL opinions, and that’s not always a battle tilted in favor of the scouts. The NFL has harsh size requirements that sometimes lead to great players being undervalued. This especially could affect Oregon quarterback Vernon Adams Jr.
Some top analysts such as Rotoworld’s Josh Norris believe the 5’11”, 190-pound Adams is one of those players. According to Matt Lombardo of 97.5 The Fan in Philadelphia, Norris thinks that Adams has more translatable skills than Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch. This is certainly a hot take, considering the difference in where each is expected to be drafted.
CBS Sports projects Adams as a seventh-round pick. NFL Media Senior Analyst Gil Brandt believes Adams has a CFL skill set. I believe he is somewhere in between those opinions and will end up as a quality backup in the fifth round.
The Denver Broncos Select Keith Marshall
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The star of the NFL Scouting Combine was Georgia Bulldogs running back Keith Marshall. The 5’11”, 212-pound back was a 5-star recruit by 247Sports before suffering an unfortunate torn ACL in 2013. The subsequent two seasons after the injury were marred by more missed time.
Marshall reaffirmed his athleticism at the combine by blazing a 4.31 40-yard dash. His best-in-class time boosted his stock, as evaluators will want to see if he’s ready to deliver on his once-promising outlook. The perfect landing spot for him to succeed would be in Denver with head coach Gary Kubiak and the infamous zone-blocking scheme.
With only 1,379 yards on his resume, Marshall shouldn’t cost more than a late-round pick. But the Broncos could use a cheap back to complement C.J. Anderson since Ronnie Hillman is still a free agent. There’s not a better low-risk, high-reward option at the position in the class.
D’haquille Williams and De’Runnya Wilson Will Not Be Drafted
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The NFL Scouting Combine was not kind to SEC wide receivers who have names starting with the letter "D." Both De’Runnya Wilson and D’haquille Williams utterly failed to impress at the event. Their performances were so bad that neither will be drafted at all.
Williams was kicked off the Auburn Tigers after he allegedly punched four people at a bar in October, per Wesley Sinor of AL.com. He went on to admit he’s a “seventh-round pick” at the combine, according to NFL.com’s Andy Fenelon. Then he scored in the bottom-five percentile or worse in every drill but the bench press and broad jump during the key testing drills.
Wilson doesn’t share the same character concerns, but he is a similarly horrible athlete. Per Mock Draftable, Wilson’s 4.85 was the worst 40-yard dash in combine history for a receiver, and his broad and vertical jumps were among the worst marks since 1999. Even his 6’5”, 224-pound frame can’t justify those scores.
Moritz Boehringer Will Be Mr. Irrelevant
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The best overall athlete in the 2016 NFL draft class may be someone who has never played even Division III college football. German wide receiver Moritz Boehringer put himself firmly on the NFL’s radar with a shocking pro-day performance. The 6’4”, 227-pound receiver did more than just blaze a 4.43 40.
According to Mock Draftable, Boehringer ranked in the 81st percentile or better in every drill except the bench press. His spider chart compared to every receiver with pro day or combine data since 1999 is incredible for someone with his mass. The question is whether he can play football at a reasonably high level.
Like Jeff Janis, Boehringer will face a steep learning curve. Just being a terrific athlete means little in the grand scheme of NFL success. But the Denver Broncos, owners of the 253rd overall pick, will make Boehringer their own project. He will be the final pick in the draft, which is also known as Mr. Irrelevant.
Many Predictions Will Be Wrong
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The easiest prediction for me to make is to say that many of these predictions will be wrong. Maybe woefully off-base, even. The NFL draft is the most unpredictable event of the entire league calendar, which is also why it draws so many fans to the drama.
Even the best insiders will be shocked at what unfolds during the three days of picks, trades and rumors. No one can expect the amount of curveballs and head-scratching decisions that will occur.
While I used my own evaluations with the information readily available through reports, these are just fun guesses that make sense. It’s impossible to know what all 32 teams are thinking about each eligible player.
If you’ve made it this far, then you’re an avid follower of the draft. Make sure you leave your predictions in the comments section below so we can compare at a later time.
All NFL Scouting Combine measurables courtesy of NFL.com. All stats used are from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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