NFL Draft 2016: The Worst-Case Scenario Every Team Must Avoid
Every year, the NFL draft doesn’t quite go as planned. While sometimes teams struggle because of a lack of preparation, at other times it’s just bad luck or the crazy nature of the draft that turns a potentially positive day for a franchise into a worst-case scenario.
That “worst-case scenario” can happen at any point in the draft. It can be missing on a first-round target who would have been a dream fit in the offense or defense. Or it could be failing to address a position early, which could lead to a major draft need going unfilled.
These worst-case scenarios are a bit subjective, but they’re what each team would be disappointed most with if it left the draft under these circumstances.
Arizona Cardinals: Missing on a Top Cornerback
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Despite how wildly successful their defense has been the last two years and their trade for Chandler Jones, the Cardinals shouldn’t avoid the defensive side of the ball early in the draft. Cornerback is quietly one of their biggest needs; after Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu in the slot, the team is without a viable starter for the short or long term.
Picking at the tail end of the first round, the Cardinals could have a host of options to fill the position, led by Clemson’s Mackensie Alexander and Houston’s Will Jackson. But the cornerback class weakens after the top 50 picks or so, and the Cardinals can’t afford to miss on some of the topflight corners in the draft. With the Seahawks in the division and a host of high-volume passing offenses set to lead in the NFC, the Cardinals need to find more help for the secondary.
Atlanta Falcons: Ignoring Wide Receiver in the Draft
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One of the main reasons for the Falcons' offensive struggles in 2015 was the lack of support in the receiving corps after Julio Jones. Other receivers struggled to separate and make consistent difference-making plays, which stifled offensive drives in which Jones wasn't productive.
After losing Roddy White, Atlanta added Mohamed Sanu in free agency, but that’s enough to promote a Falcons' offensive resurgence. With a talented running game, health along the offensive line and a proven quarterback, giving Jones support in the passing game could be the difference, and the first round may be the best place to find him a running mate.
Baltimore Ravens: Missing on an Inside Linebacker
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Baltimore has done a strong job over the last four years of retooling the defense, as the team is now led by former top draftees Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Williams, C.J. Mosley and Jimmy Smith. That said, Baltimore still has short- and long-term needs in the linebacking corps, especially at inside linebacker next to Mosley.
The reason this need is especially important is because of the relative lack of top-end inside linebacker prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. Myles Jack of UCLA and Darron Lee of Ohio State could be fits, but Jack may go too high and Lee may be a reach for the Ravens' pick at No. 6. After them, Reggie Ragland may be the last plug-and-play starter fit for the team in the top two rounds. The Ravens may be able to find support later in the draft, but they need to hit on a potential starter at some point in the 2016 draft.
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Buffalo Bills: Not Finding Defensive Line Help Early
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Losing Mario Williams this offseason shouldn’t have come as a surprise to Bills fans, as his play hadn’t lived up to his contract. That said, the Bills need to find a long-term answer to his departure, as that replacement may not be on the roster.
Also, defensive tackle Kyle Williams may be on the way out after next year, as his contract inflates in 2017 and the 32-year-old may not be worth the price tag. In a strong defensive line class, the Bills will have plenty of options early. And while it may be tempting to find an impact linebacker, add offensive line support or keep the receiving corps strong, addressing the defensive front four is Buffalo’s most important goal on draft weekend.
Carolina Panthers: Missing out on Cornerback Value
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A big reason for the Panthers' Super Bowl run was due to the strong defensive back play they received, despite a lack of topflight young talent there after Pro Bowler Josh Norman. While they have depth as of now, the Panthers don’t have a long-term answer opposite Norman.
And with the Saints, Falcons and Buccaneer all in the division and poised to have improved passing attacks in 2016, Carolina needs to start building its secondary to have a return trip to the NFC title game in future years. The Panthers are picking in the sweet spot of cornerback value at the end of the first round, and that could be the best spot for them to address this need. Mackensie Alexander of Clemson may be a strong fit.
Chicago Bears: Not Getting a Top-Tier Offensive Lineman
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Chicago has done a strong job of filling needs across the defense in just two years with John Fox at the helm of the team. The Bears have relied upon free agency and will need to use the draft to stock their depth.
But on offense, their line is still in a bit of disarray. Kyle Long and last year’s third-round pick Hroniss Grasu should be strong long-term starters, but the rest of the unit is a question mark. Offensive tackle could be a surprise first-round option for them, but certainly finding a way to address the need early in the draft is necessary to keep Jay Cutler upright and give this team a fighting chance to get into the playoff hunt in a strong NFC North.
Cincinnati Bengals: Not Getting a First-Round Receiver
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After losing Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones in free agency, it’s no secret that Cincinnati has a glaring need at the receiver position. After drafting really well over the last few years, Cincinnati has begun to see the fruits of its draft success depart for bigger free-agency deals.
While the Bengals could consider a pass-rusher or a strong-side linebacker at 24th overall, receiver is clearly their most pressing need. And with at least a few strong options likely to be available at that pick, led by Baylor’s Corey Coleman, Ohio State’s Michael Thomas and TCU’s Josh Doctson, they shouldn’t have too much trouble finding an adequate option.
Cleveland Browns: Waiting Too Long on Defense
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With the Browns seemingly destined for a quarterback at No. 2 overall, based on their recent draft history, they’ll hopefully fill the position once and for all. And with significant needs at receiver and offensive line, Cleveland could opt to go offense-heavy early in the 2016 draft.
But that would be unwise. The offense has a lot of holes, but the defense still isn’t devoid of talent despite the team moving on from feature players such as Tashaun Gipson and Donte Whitner. Drafting defense early could help keep the Browns' stronger side of the ball a strength and allow Hue Jackson to slowly build the offense without rushing the acquisition of talent.
Dallas Cowboys: Not Taking Advantage of Loaded DL Class
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At the fourth overall pick, the already Super Bowl-contending Cowboys could get richer by adding a top-tier talent to their offense or defense. Adding Joey Bosa or DeForest Buckner could be viable, but there’s a chance they opt for Myles Jack, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalen Ramsey or even a quarterback.
If it passes on a first-round defensive lineman, Dallas can’t afford to ignore the draft’s position of strength throughout. After Demarcus Lawrence, the Cowboys don’t have many strong long-term answers across the defensive line. It’s wise to play to the draft’s strengths year to year, and this is certainly the case for the Cowboys.
Denver Broncos: Ignoring Offense in First Three Rounds
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Signing Russell Okung was a coup for the Broncos, who had a clear need at the position in the short and long term and now won’t have to reach on a blocker early in the draft. But, assuming they do eventually trade for Colin Kaepernick, the Broncos still have important needs on the offensive line.
Denver may want to keep stockpiling the defense, particularly the defensive front seven, but protecting Mark Sanchez (and potentially Kaepernick) is important for Denver to make another deep playoff run. Cody Whitehair of Kansas State may be a good fit at No. 31.
Detroit Lions: Missing on Both Top Tiers of WRs
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Replacing Calvin Johnson is impossible for the Lions to accomplish, as this class doesn’t feature a face-of-the-franchise type receiver that Matthew Stafford can develop a quick relationship with. They added Marvin Jones in free agency, but that won’t put a dent in the team’s need for a feature receiver.
Taking a receiver in the first round should certainly be in play. Thanks to his jump-ball ability and physicality, Laquon Treadwell is the most obvious candidate to fill the void, but the Lions will have other options in the first and likely the second round. But Detroit can’t afford to leave draft weekend with at least some added depth at the position if it hopes to keep Stafford happy and productive.
Green Bay Packers: Reaching on a Defensive Lineman Early
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The Packers haven’t appeared to be averse to drafting for need early in the draft each year, and they’ve still found success in doing so. This year, they have no greater need than along the defensive line, which lost B.J. Raji to semi-retirement and has question marks at two of the three positions.
Luckily for Green Bay, this is the strongest defensive line class in recent draft history. Vernon Butler of Louisiana Tech may be an unrealistic target, as his Muhammad Wilkerson comparison may push him into the top 20, but big bodies such as Andrew Billings of Baylor and Kenny Clark of UCLA could be in the mix at No. 27.
Houston Texans: Missing on Top-Tier Safeties
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After adding Brock Osweiler and Lamar Miller to their offense this offseason, the Texans should be ecstatic about the promise of their offense heading into 2016. With a need at receiver opposite DeAndre Hopkins, Houston should be expected to fill that void early.
But currently, the Texans have no bigger need on their roster than at safety, where Eddie Pleasant and Andre Hal are set to man the starting positions. It’s not a strong safety class, and by the end of Round 2 there may not be many viable options left. Justin Simmons of Boston College may be their best bet in second round, assuming they go receiver in the first.
Indianapolis Colts: Stanley, Decker and Conklin off the Board at No. 18
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Indianapolis needs to upgrade the offensive line this year, as it’s about time it stops subjecting Andrew Luck to substantial hits and a lack of confidence in the pocket. It’s a strong offensive line class, but Indianapolis still needs a few things to go right before it picks at No. 18.
Ronnie Stanley of Notre Dame, Taylor Decker of Ohio State and Jack Conklin of Michigan State all have a chance to be available at No. 18 overall, and the Colts need one of those three to fall. Conklin fits the Colts' “safe” drafting strategy best, and if he’s available, he may be the best pick of the three.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Ramsey, Jack off the Board at No. 5
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Picking at fifth overall, the Jaguars should land one of the elite talents of the 2016 class. However, after drafting a second-round running back and investing heavily in their defensive line in free agency, the Jaguars likely won’t eye a running back or defensive lineman with their first-round pick.
If Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack are gone when the Jaguars select at No. 5, they could be forced to reach on a better need and scheme fit and pass on talents such as DeForest Buckner and Joey Bosa.
Kansas City Chiefs: Ignoring Offensive Line Early
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Kansas City’s offensive line has become an area of strength in its playoff-roster building, but the team has done it with mid-round picks, free-agent signings and suffering through the adequate, not great, play of former first overall pick Eric Fisher.
The Chiefs need as much support for Alex Smith as possible. And while Andy Reid’s teams have been historically averse to drafting receivers early, he should be open to adding front-five reinforcements, including in Round 1. If they hope to get back to the playoffs in what should be a stronger AFC West battle, the Chiefs will need to bolster the O-line.
Los Angeles Rams: Reaching for a Second-Round Quarterback
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No team may be as desperate for a quarterback in the 2016 NFL draft than the Rams. With Case Keenum and Nick Foles battling for the starting spot, the Rams conceivably have no quality starters on the roster.
Paxton Lynch of Memphis fits their offense, and there's a good chance he's available when the Rams pick at No. 15. But if he's not, they may have no choice but to reach for a quarterback early in the second round. Connor Cook may be a plug-and-play NFL player thanks to his pro-style offense experience, but he's not the answer they should be looking for long-term. Drafting for need is never wise, especially at quarterback.
Miami Dolphins: Three Buckeyes Not Being Available at No. 13
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The three Buckeyes in mind are running back Ezekiel Elliott, linebacker Darron Lee and cornerback Eli Apple. All three would fill major voids for the Dolphins, are strong scheme fits and have a realistic chance of landing there.
But with the Eagles, Buccaneers and Saints having strong needs at cornerback, the Eagles, Giants and Bears having needs at linebacker and nearly every team between No. 4 and No. 12 overall being likely to consider an impact player like Elliott, there’s no guarantee any of them will be available. If not, the Dolphins may be coveting a trade-down and, in the end, lose value in their predraft trade with the Eagles in their move down from No. 8 to No. 13.
Minnesota Vikings: Not Finding a Running Mate for Stefon Diggs
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Still led by Adrian Peterson offensively, the Vikings need to start doing a better job of providing Teddy Bridgewater with support in the passing game. If not for stumbling into Stefon Diggs late in the draft, the Vikings would have had one of the NFL’s worst units a year ago.
Diggs is a strong starter, but he can’t lead a receiving corps. With likely a handful of options available in the first round for Minnesota, the team would be wise to consider Baylor’s Corey Coleman, Ohio State’s Michael Thomas or TCU’s Josh Doctson at the 23rd overall pick.
New England Patriots: No Top EDGEs at End of Round 2
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After the Deflategate penalties took away their first-round pick, the Patriots' room for error in the 2016 NFL draft shrunk drastically. While they don’t have many needs, the Patriots need to keep their defense a strength, and it may be a difficult task to fill a need while not reaching on players early.
Finding another edge player should be at or near the top of the Patriots' wish list, and they’ll hopefully find one at the tail end of the second round. A prospect such as Kamalei Correa of Boise State would be a fit for their scheme, but with the edge class value dying off around the time the Patriots pick, they may need to buck their usual draft strategy and trade up or make the most of whichever player falls into their lap.
New Orleans Saints: Ignoring Receiver Early
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Boasting one of the worst defensive units in the entire NFL, the Saints should be targeting defense early and often in the 2016 NFL draft. With ample talent at cornerback and defensive line available early, the Saints should have great opportunity to begin retooling their defense.
That said, the Saints can’t afford to pass on receivers in this class. Brandin Cooks is a quality starter and difference-maker in the offense, but he can’t rely on Willie Snead or Brandon Coleman to open up vertical opportunities opposite him. While it’s not a strong receiver class, the Saints need to add at least one receiver to the mix to give Drew Brees another weapon in 2016.
New York Giants: Passing on an Offensive Lineman in Top 50
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With offensive line their most obvious and glaring need, the Giants are expected to add an offensive tackle or guard early in the draft, maybe even in the first round.
But if the Giants opt to add a linebacker or an offensive playmaker at 10th overall, they could be scrounging for offensive line support in the second round, and there may not be a ton of value at that point. New York needs to find offensive line upgrades, but the team has often focused on best player available rather than need. However, with a glaring need at the position, the Giants can’t afford to be too stingy with their draft board.
New York Jets: Not Finding Wilkerson/Ferguson Replacement
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Both offensive tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson and defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson have been two of the team’s best players over the last five years, but it seems the end may be near for both. Wilkerson has been on the trading block after being franchised early this offseason.
Ferguson is a 32-year-old offensive tackle whose contract is easily cutable this offseason and in 2017. The Jets can’t find replacements for both in this draft, but they need to at least address one or the other in the first few rounds. Offensive tackle may be easier to address in Round 1.
Oakland Raiders: Taking Too Many Risky Picks Early
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The Raiders have built one of the best young rosters in the NFL under general manager Reggie McKenzie. They’ve drafted relatively safely early in the draft the last few years, and it has resulted in an All-Pro pass-rusher (Khalil Mack), a feature receiver (Amari Cooper) and a franchise quarterback (Derek Carr).
That said, the Raiders could look to be more aggressive with their early-round picks to try to capitalize on their high ceiling, including considering Ole Miss' Robert Nkemdiche. While taking a risk early may not be a bad thing for the Raiders, taking too many may lead to a potentially wasted draft in an already strong rebuilding effort.
Philadelphia Eagles: Ramsey, Elliott and Hargreaves off Board at No. 8
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Moving up from No. 13 to No. 8, the Eagles appear to have their sights on at least a few top talents in the top 10. By my guess, the Eagles would love to add a top secondary talent such as Jalen Ramsey or Vernon Hargreaves III or the draft’s best running back in Ezekiel Elliott.
If all three are gone, the Eagles may be forced to add a player at a position not of need, such as Ronnie Stanley on the offensive line or Darron Lee in their linebacking corps. While it wouldn’t be a terrible worst-case scenario, the Eagles would be frustrated if they traded two starters to move up and draft a player they likely could have gotten at No. 13.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Leaving Without a Backup Quarterback
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Landry Jones can’t be trusted as a backup to Ben Roethlisberger. He didn’t play well last year when he was called into action, and the Steelers nearly missed the playoffs because of such poor play.
Given Ben Roethlisberger’s injury past and continued injury-proneness moving forward, the Steelers need to start planning for the future. Cardale Jones would be an ideal selection, as he fits the Steelers offense and his main NFL comparison is Big Ben.
San Diego Chargers: Not Grabbing a Top Tight End
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With Antonio Gates having at least another year left, the Chargers opted to let Ladarius Green go in free agency. But Gates can't be counted on as a reliable starter all year because of his age (35) and injury history. Philip Rivers has grown to appreciate having a quality tight end to rely on, and finding his next seam-stretching tight end would be wise in what should be a solid early-round class.
Tyler Higbee of Western Kentucky and Hunter Henry of Arkansas are the two best options, and both should be second-round picks who would fit nicely alongside Gates for a year and potentially take over his role moving forward. The Chargers, assuming they aren't crushed by injuries again in 2016, could be a dark-horse playoff team, but they need to keep the tight end position strong.
San Francisco 49ers: Entering 2016 Season with Blaine Gabbert as Top QB
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With Colin Kaepernick on the trading block and all signs pointing to him eventually being traded to the Denver Broncos, the 49ers' only viable NFL quarterback is Blaine Gabbert. It would be naive to think they can enter the 2016 season with Gabbert as the face of their quarterback position.
I don't believe Jared Goff is worth a top-10 pick or a great fit for Chip Kelly's offense, but they may not have a choice after trading Kaepernick. After the mess that was the 2015 49ers season, having Gabbert at the helm of the offense with no other plan in place could lead to more frustration.
Seattle Seahawks: Leaving Draft Without Viable Left Tackle
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Losing Russell Okung in free agency this year shouldn't have come as a surprise to Seahawks fans and management, but Seattle didn't do a great job of filling the void he left in the offense. The team added Bradley Sowell from the Cardinals, but he shouldn't be counted on as a quality starter.
While it's a strong offensive tackle class early on, the Seahawks may find it a struggle to add a quality left tackle prospect at No. 26. Ronnie Stanley, Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker are all likely to be gone by the time the Seahawks pick. Le'Raven Clark of Texas Tech or Germain Ifedi of Texas A&M aren't worthy of first-round picks. That said, the Seahawks may have no choice but to reach or trade up for one of them.
If Seattle can't leave the 2016 draft with one of these left tackle prospects or trade for a possible plug-and-play starter (like Denver's Ryan Clady), it could lead to a season-long struggle for Russell Wilson.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Not Adding DE and DB with First Two Picks
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The Buccaneers defense is one of the best young units in the NFL, but the team still has major needs at defensive end and in the secondary. With their first pick at ninth overall, the Bucs will have plenty of options to fill one of those needs, including Shaq Lawson, Vernon Hargreaves III and Eli Apple.
If they can secure a top edge player or cornerback in Round 1, they'll have options at the other position in Round 2. But after the second round, both position value falls off, and the Bucs may not be able to secure quality value at either position. While offensive line and defensive tackle may be intriguing options as well, the Bucs need to solidify their major defensive needs first to keep their momentum going.
Tennessee Titans: Wasting Loaded Defensive Tackle Class Value
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If the Titans take Laremy Tunsil or Jalen Ramsey at No. 1 overall, they'll likely look to fill the other positional need in the second or third round. Jurrell Casey is one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL, but his support staff in the front three of the 3-4 defense is lacking.
They have more serious needs to address, but the Titans, like other teams, shouldn't pass on the defensive tackle talent available in the 2016 class. Daquan Jones and Al Woods aren't long-term starters, and the Dick LeBeau defense needs quality nose tackles and 5-techniques to run effectively.
Washington Redskins: Not Drafting a Wide Receiver Early
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With Pierre Garcon entering the final year of his deal in 2016 and DeSean Jackson's contract easily cutable after the season, the Redskins could be without their top two receivers after this season. While bringing either back wouldn't be a bad idea, Washington needs to start looking for younger receivers to grow with Kirk Cousins.
It's not a terribly strong receiver class, and the Redskins likely won't reach at the position just to prepare for the future. But they need to start building their receiving unit before it becomes a substantial need in the 2017 offseason.
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