Pacquiao vs. Bradley Undercard: Preview and Prediction for Valdez vs. Gradovich
In a clash between a former champion and a rising contender, Mexico's Oscar Valdez meets the "Mexican Russian" Evgeny Gradovich in a 10-round featherweight bout on the Manny Pacquiao-Timothy Bradley undercard Saturday night.
Gradovich held the IBF strap at 126 pounds for more than two years, from March 2013 until May of last year. Valdez is unbeaten as a pro, with a high knockout percentage.
This one has the ingredients to be a great fight.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Oscar Valdez | Evgeny Gradovich |
| Record: | 18-0, 16 KOs | 22-1-1, 9 KOs |
| Height: | 5'5 ½" | 5'8" |
| Reach: | 66" | 67" |
| Weight: | 126 lbs | 126 lbs |
| Age: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Stance: | 25 | 29 |
| Hometown: | Nogales, Sonora | Oxnard, California |
| Rounds: | 74 | 166 |
Gradovich has more high-level experience as a professional, but Valdez had an extensive amateur career, representing Mexico twice in the Olympics. Although he is the taller fighter, Gradovich's reach advantage is not significant, and this fight will probably be fought largely at close range, anyway.
Gradovich is a good offensive fighter, but the edge in power here heavily favors Valdez.
While he now lives in California, Gradovich is a native of Russia.
Main Storylines
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Valdez has the look of a potential superstar. He represented Mexico twice in the Olympics and has been stellar so far in his professional career, winning his first 18 fights, knocking out 16.
He's stopped second-tier contenders such as Chris Avalos and Jose Ramirez and nearly shut out Ruben Tamayo over 10 rounds. But Evgeny Gradovich is unquestionably a step up for him.
Gradovich is a Russian native who trains with Robert Garcia in Oxnard, California. His training partners at the gym have affectionately dubbed him "The Mexican Russian" as a tribute to his busy, come-forward style.
Gradovich became the IBF world champion in March 2013, when he defeated Billy Dib by split decision after taking the fight on less than a month's notice. He stopped Dib in the rematch.
Gradovich dropped his title last May to England's Lee Selby. He's won two fights since, by split decision and majority decision over a pair of journeymen—Aldimar Silva Santos and Jesus Galicia.
That strikes me as a noteworthy, because I wouldn't expect either of them to win many rounds against a fighter of Gradovich's caliber.
This could be an opportunity for Valdez to look very good against a former world champion. Or, it could be a chance for Gradovich to reassert himself as one of the division's top names.
But above all, I expect this to be a terrific fight. Both of these guys come forward, looking to sling leather.
Strengths
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Oscar Valdez is a very good offensive fighter. He throws quick, thudding combinations, hammering away at both the body and head.
His punches come from a lot of different angles, and he does a great job at staying in range and using head movement and level changes to make his opponents miss with their own shots.
Evgeny Gradovich is a rugged, high-volume puncher. He swarms opponents and forces them to match his own relentless pace or end up getting outworked.
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Weaknesses
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Oscar Valdez is a well-rounded fighter, but he's still very inexperienced. Evgeny Gradovich represents a big step up in competition, on a very big stage.
Evgeny Gradovich is a high-volume puncher, but many of his shots are basically arm punches, lacking power. He comes forward in a fairly predictable manner and can be timed as he moves into range, as Lee Selby demonstrated against him last May.
Oscar Valdez Will Win If...
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Gradovich is the sort of opponent who could give Valdez the opportunity to look very good. The Russian is a come-forward, pressure fighter, and Valdez has looked very formidable fighting in close range.
Valdez's biggest challenge will be to time Gradovich's flurries, in order to counter him. Gradovich is a very busy, high-volume puncher.
When Gradovich moves forward, Valdez should slip backward, lower his level and then find the space between Gradovich's punches and punish him.
If Valdez can manage to consistently hit Gradovich on the way in, he should win this fight. He's got the better power and defense, so he should score more frequently and with heavier blows.
Evgeny Gradovich Will Win If...
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To win this fight, Gradovich is going to need to fight as well as he has since stopping Billy Dib in their November 2013 rematch. He's going to have to push a relentless pace throughout the fight and swarm the younger man.
Gradovich needs to be the better ring general and dictate the fight's pace while controlling the distance. He has to make his tempo difficult for Valdez to adjust to.
It will be essential for Gradovich to make smart use of the clinch. When Valdez is in range to land a big punch, Gradovich better be ready to grab a quick clinch and smother him. Gradovich is a strong fighter, so he should be able to make those clinches uncomfortable and draining for Valdez.
Gradovich is the underdog in this bout, but it's a winnable fight for him. He's a tough-nosed competitor with experience.
Prediction
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Gradovich is a very good boxer. But he's had four straight fights where he looked less than stellar. And Valdez is a rising star.
I also think Gradovich fights with the kind of style Valdez should excel against. This will be a dogfight to be sure, but Valdez will inflict more damage as the bout progresses. By the final bell, he'll have recorded a convincing decision.
This is a win that will considerably raise Valdez's stature. However, I don't think he's ready for the class of the division, Vasyl Lomachenko, just yet.
But I'd like to see him face the man who took Gradovich's crown, Lee Selby, who also fights this weekend in England.
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