Can Manuel Pellegrini Leave Manchester City as European Champions?

While it can be hard keeping good news a secret, if Manchester City’s board of directors wanted to know how their season would unravel after they announced in February that Pep Guardiola would replace Manuel Pellegrini, they only needed to look at the experience of Sir Alex Ferguson 14 years ago.

Before the start of the 2001-02 season, with United pursuing a fourth consecutive Premier League title, Ferguson announced that it would be his final campaign.

“The biggest mistake I made was announcing it … I think a lot of [the players] had put their tools away,” he told ESPN. “They thought, ‘Oh the manager is leaving.'”

For the first time in 11 years, Manchester United finished outside the top two in the table, and 10 points behind eventual champions Arsenal in third place.

The United squad lost their focus, and crucially lost the edge that had separated them from the rest as they started to see Ferguson as already retired.

If it could happen to the best in Ferguson, it was always likely to be repeated with the more malleable Pellegrini, and since his departure was made public City's season has imploded.

Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images

When the club announced the appointment of Guardiola, City were a mere three points behind Leicester City in the table, but two months on that gap has widened to 15 after City’s run of four defeats from their next eight league games. 

Now City face a battle to finish in the top four and even qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League. This was not in the glossy brochure sold to Guardiola.

But despite City’s steep decline, Pellegrini still has the chance to walk away from the Etihad Stadium with the best leaving gift of all: the Champions League.

The Chilean has already taken them further than before—to this week’s quarter-final where they face Paris Saint-Germain, but can they now make the last four? 

MARCO BERTORELLO/Getty Images

While City might be a spent force on the home front, Pellegrini will retain hope his side can turn it on over 180 minutes against the French champions.

An era is coming to a close at the Etihad, but City still have big players who can rouse themselves for a final push at the Champions League.

The triumvirate of Yaya Toure, David Silva and Sergio Aguero represent a potent attacking threat to any side left in the competition.

Last season City proved they could overcome the best when they defeated Guardiola’s Bayern Munich 3-2 in the group stages on a memorable night at the Etihad. 

Nine of the 11 players who started the win over the German champions are still at the Etihad, and they are capable of engineering a repeat performance.

Aguero scored a hat-trick that night against Munich, and has 16 goals in his last 18 starts in the Champions League. If he can be provided with enough of the chances he craves, City will remain a threat.

Laurence Griffiths/Getty Images

The return of Kevin De Bruyne will also bolster City in Europe, for it can be no coincidence that their slump has coincided with his absence through injury.

The Belgian has looked worth the exorbitant fee City paid last summer, already contributing 13 goals in 32 games from midfield this season, including one on his return to the side in the 4-0 win over Bournemouth on Saturday.

The problem for City is this attacking threat is undermined by an increasingly vulnerable defence.

Since Pellegrini confirmed his departure, his defence has also gone into a premature retirement, and conceded three goals to Leicester City and Liverpool, two to Tottenham Hotspur, and five to Chelsea in the FA Cup.

There is a very obvious problem at the heart of the City defence, especially when you remove the increasingly brittle Vincent Kompany, who is set to miss most of City’s remaining fixtures this season.

In his absence, City are left with a choice of Martin Demichelis—who was substituted after 53 minutes in the recent 1-0 defeat to Manchester United—and the expensive pair of Nicolas Otamendi and Eliaquim Mangala, neither of whom have so far come close to living up to their price tags.

Catherine Ivill - AMA/Getty Images

Paris Saint-Germain will have watched with interest, and a sense of excitement, at how the inexperienced pair of Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial were able to expose the City defence with their pace only two weeks ago.

It is difficult not to see the powers of Angel Di Maria, Edinson Cavani, and Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who scored a hat-trick in the 4-1 win over Nice on Saturday, breaching this City defence several times over two legs.

City will cling to the hope that while they might have recently slumped in the Premier League, these big European games under lights will now inspire them to greater deeds.

The truth is a disengaged manager and a disjointed defence are now likely to bring an end to their involvement in the Champions League over the next week.