Why a Colin Kaepernick Trade to Denver Broncos Makes Sense for Both Parties

The first few waves of free agency have come and gone, as the most talented players quickly signed new deals. Veteran leftovers at this point are uninspiring, either due to age or injury concerns. That leaves the trade route as the most viable option to acquire a quality player, especially at the quarterback position.

The most talented signal-caller available is San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick. According to Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Denver Broncos and 49ers have agreed on the framework of a trade, but they need Kaepernick to sacrifice salary in the deal. 

Finding an average quarterback is difficult and expensive. Such players receive massive contracts as soon as they show even the slightest competence in a limited sample size. We saw former Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler join that club this offseason.

Kaepernick enjoyed an electric start to his career with former head coach John Harbaugh. It was the perfect situation for him, as that iteration of the 49ers was stacked with elite players to help lessen the burden on a young quarterback. The team ponied up a six-year, $114 million contract extension in June 2014 because it came within a few yards of winning Super Bowl XLVII. At the time, Kaepernick was thriving.

Alas, his best move over the long term is to relocate. Staying in San Francisco is unlikely to resuscitate his career, but Denver’s comfortable confines could spark a revival. 

The 49ers must trade Kaepernick

2013 seems like forever ago, as that version of the 49ers is now long gone. Kaepernick statistically plateaued in 2014 and 2015, but the weight of his contract put expectations on him that he hasn’t fulfilled. It doesn’t help that Chip Kelly is the franchise's third head coach in three seasons and has no loyalty to him.

Regardless of Kelly’s personal stake in who plays under center, there’s reason to believe Kaepernick isn’t a great fit for his offense.

Kelly was able to adjust his scheme to his personnel from Dennis Dixon to Marcus Mariota at Oregon and then from Nick Foles to Sam Bradford with the Philadelphia Eagles. Mariota and Bradford were more precise than Kaepernick in terms of accuracy, and their skill sets allowed Kelly to run a more complex passing attack.

Credit: NFL Game Pass

Despite Kaepernick’s ability to run like a gazelle, he can only handle the most basic offensive concepts. This has been the case since his time at Nevada and during stints with two different NFL offensive coordinators.

While Kelly can simplify his offense to read-option and rollouts, adding a rookie quarterback such as Cal’s Jared Goff might appeal to the head coach because Goff is more mentally advanced than Kaepernick based on his collegiate responsibilities and film.

I went back to Kaepernick’s 2015 tape to see what the 49ers asked him to do and how he fared. By charting his passing attempts and logging which passes were catchable, we get a snapshot of his strengths and weaknesses.

If I deemed a pass reasonably catchable, I marked it as accurate. I also filtered out all throwaways. Here are the results:

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Colin Kaepernick's accuracy chart for 2015. Measures how many catchable passes the attempted. #49ers pic.twitter.com/JfIXxDZexS

— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) April 2, 2016"

This chart encapsulates his overall ineffectiveness, as a 66 percent accuracy rate is well below average. For comparison’s sake, Miami's Ryan Tannehill threw a catchable pass on 76 percent of attempts, Washington's Kirk Cousins was at 72 percent and Ryan Fitzpatrick of the New York Jets finished with 63 percent.

2015 was not an ideal situation for the 49ers due to the coaching change and personnel departures, but Kaepernick’s numbers were on pace to be similar to those of his previous seasons. His touchdowns were slightly down, but he’s largely been the same player for the last four years. The 49ers know what they’re getting with him.

Credit: NFL Game Pass

His lack of accuracy to every level of the field except the deep right is startling. He often misses on simple checkdown passes such as the one above. And despite his cannon of an arm, he tends to stop his follow-through, which causes his pass to die right as it arrives to the receiver. This exact instance led to four dropped passes by running backs in just eight games.

On top of basic accuracy issues, Kaepernick’s inability to read past his first target led to 12 interception-worthy plays. Defenders only caught five of those, but he was fortunate his interceptions were so low. He also put his receivers into the danger zone with decisions like the one below.

Credit: NFL Game Pass

Additionally, there's the financial impact of keeping Kaepernick. His 2016 bonus vested on April 1, bumping his guaranteed salary to $14.3 million, according to Albert Breer of NFL Network. San Francisco has the most cap space in the NFL with nearly $57 million, per Spotrac, but paying a backup quarterback that type of money is unnecessary.

Finally, it would be a coup for the 49ers to get any draft assets for Kaepernick. Schefter reported the compensation will be a mid-round pick, which could be a third- or fourth-rounder. Even an extra Day 3 pick could hasten this rebuild more than Kaepernick can.

Why Kaepernick makes sense for Denver

Even with as many shortcomings as Kaepernick has at this point in his career, he’s still one of the NFL's best 32 quarterbacks. It’s not a coincidence that the team with arguably the weakest quarterback depth chart is interested in him. The Broncos may need to ask Peyton Manning to come back in 2016 if they are unable to acquire Kaepernick, and that’s not a joke.

The Broncos defense carried a similarly limited player in Manning last year en route to a Super Bowl victory. Can Kaepernick execute enough within an offense that features running back C.J. Anderson and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas? At least he’s a functional starter, unlike current Broncos quarterbacks Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian.

Denver is also an attractive situation for Kaepernick because of head coach Gary Kubiak. He has experience working with different types of quarterbacks, especially ones who can move outside of the pocket. Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub and Osweiler each had success when Kubiak was calling plays. He should be able to replicate what Greg Roman did with Kaepernick from 2012 to 2014.

Getting moderate production from Kaepernick would at least give the Broncos some peace of mind as they groom their quarterback of the future while still playing for another Super Bowl. Tossing a rookie quarterback or Sanchez into this situation would be asking for disaster. At the very least, Kaepernick offers upside on plays like the one below.

Credit: NFL Game Pass

While the positives in Kaepernick's play aren’t extensive, he shows enough flashes for coaches to deal with the negatives. Denver’s elite defense especially makes this easier to swallow so long as he cuts down his turnover-worthy plays. Being surrounded by a better receiving corps and offensive line than what the 49ers had in 2015 should only help.

In terms of cost, a fourth-round pick is fair. Kaepernick is an immediate upgrade for a team that is looking to win right now. Giving up anything more than that is less enticing, because the Broncos should consider investing in a rookie signal-caller before Day 2 is over to give them a long-term option as well.

Credit: NFL Game Pass

The financials of the trade may not be all that harmful either. According to Bleacher Report NFL Insider Jason Cole, the Broncos have asked Kaepernick to reduce his salary to $7 million if they acquire him. Doing so would put him well below most franchise quarterbacks across the league and in the range of possible starters such as Chase Daniel and Robert Griffin III, per Spotrac.

This potential trade simply makes too much sense for both sides. The 49ers need to turn the page to a new era and start fresh at quarterback. Denver general manager John Elway must come away with a playable veteran signal-caller before training camp begins to give his team a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

Kaepernick is tantalizing as a player because of his massive swings from jaw-droppingly good to pull-your-hair-out bad. He’s the NFL’s version of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. But in the right situation, his chaotic nature can be controlled and channeled positively. That situation may be with the Denver Broncos.

All stats used are from Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

Ian Wharton is an NFL Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @NFLFilmStudy