Faces of the NBA's 2015-16 MVP Race: Picking the Runner-Up Isn't Easy
When did the 2015-16 NBA MVP chase become a one-horse race?
Was it when Stephen Curry's Golden State Warriors sprinted out to a record-setting 24-0 start? Or when the baby-faced sharpshooter rewrote the book (again) on perimeter sniping? Did it happen during any of his league-best dozen eruptions of 40-plus points?
Regardless of the trigger, the hoop gods clearly pulled it well before the stretch run started. Culling advanced data from Basketball-Reference.com and ESPN.com, one thing is clear: If an all-encompassing stat category exists, there's a good chance Curry's name is plastered on top.
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"When it's all said and done, the fact remains: Curry will be crowned the NBA MVP for the second consecutive season, and it won't even be close," AJ Neuharth-Keusch wrote for USA Today. "That's not to fault the rest of the league's superstars, but the Golden State Warriors' assassin has just been that good."
Curry's campaign has been remarkable, deserving all of the dropped jaws it's produced and accolades it will garner. But those posturing for a silver medal have been every bit as compelling and, even this late in the game, second place still lacks a clear-cut recipient.
Curry's Insurmountable Lead
Traditional designations that have fueled past MVP winners almost unanimously belong to Curry.
The "best player overall" tag is one of many he wears with ease. His 31.4 PER not only leads the league, but is on pace to be the eighth-highest ever recorded. And if his current shooting percentages hold, he'd be the first 30-points-per-game scorer to hit at least 50 percent from the field, 40 from outside and 90 at the charity stripe.
"He's doing things that nobody in the history of the game has ever done," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said of Curry in December, per Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News. "I told Steve Nash a few weeks ago, he's like Nash on steroids."
Shifting the discussion to team success and impact—the proverbial "best player on the best team" argument—only further solidifies Curry's position on top.
Even after Friday's loss to the Boston Celtics, the Dubs are still on track for a record-setting 73 victories. And Curry's fingerprints are littered across that success. The Warriors have outscored opponents by 18.6 points per 100 possessions when he plays and been outscored by 3.7 points per 100 possessions when he doesn't.
Those are among the many reasons this MVP "race" has become nothing more than a victory lap for Curry. That, considering the competition put forth by the rest of this field, is simply astounding.
"Closest" Competitors Are Compelling
When's the last time anyone made mention of the constant foot problems Kevin Durant encountered last season? Chances are it's been a while, since the 2013-14 MVP winner seemingly hasn't missed a beat.
During his award-winning campaign, he averaged 32.0 points on 50.3 percent shooting (39.1 from three), 7.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists. This time around, he's putting up 28.0, hitting at a 50.7 percent clip, corralling a career-best 8.3 boards and dishing out 5.0 assists. He's also holding opponents 6.1 percentage points below their field-goal average—best among qualified players facing at least 10 shots per game.
"He's proven to be one of the great scorers of right now, but maybe the history of the game with his efficiency," Thunder coach Billy Donovan said, per Cliff Brunt of the Associated Press. "I think the one thing I admire with Kevin is his willingness to pass and make people better and be a playmaker. I think there's so much more to his game than scoring."
Durant's Oklahoma City Thunder partner in crime, Russell Westbrook, has also compiled a compelling MVP argument of his own in the Sooner State.
The hyper-explosive lead guard makes nightly assaults on the rim and the stat sheet. He's easily the clubhouse leader with 16 triple-doubles—Draymond Green (12) is the only other player with more than five—a mark that hasn't been cleared in more than 25 years, per the Elias Sports Bureau (via Mike and Mike).
Fittingly, Westbrook's season-long numbers have reached heights unseen since "Mr. Triple-Double" himself, Oscar Robertson, was rewriting the history books. Should Westbrook's current numbers hold, he'll join Robertson as the only players to average at least 23 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds.
"He's a force of nature, an absolute Tasmanian devil on the floor at all times," one Eastern Conference executive told NBA.com's Sekou Smith. "For his size, playing the position he does, the way he does, I've never seen anything like him."
Speaking of once-in-a-generation talents, no MVP talk would be complete without mention of four-time winner LeBron James.
At 31 years old, he might be a half-step (or less) below his previous level, but the numbers still speak for themselves: 25.1 points on 51.0 percent shooting, 7.5 rebounds and 6.7 assists. The Cleveland Cavaliers have fared 16.1 points better per 100 possessions with him than without, and even that figure may undersell his actual value.
"He's quite clearly the most impactful Cleveland rotation member," wrote Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal. "If MVP actually meant 'most valuable player' in its literal sense, James would indeed have a convincing argument."
And if elite defense resonates with voters, two more names should appear on this list: Kawhi Leonard and Draymond Green, respectively the first and second finishers in last season's Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Green leads all non-centers in defensive real plus-minus (4.95, third overall), and Leonard ranks best among perimeter players (4.64, fifth), per ESPN.com. Each player also exerts his influence on both sides of the court.
Leonard is simultaneously having his best season in scoring (20.9 points per game) and three-point shooting (45.8 percent), while threatening to join the exclusive 50/40/90 club (50.8 from the field, 88.3 at the line).
Green, who's actually had a higher on/off impact on the Warriors than Curry (plus-18.8 with him, minus-6.5 without), is having a season for the ages, as SportsCenter noted:
The MVP Runner-Up Is...
...too close to call? In the eyes of many, that's probably how it's perceived.
But an assessment of that group reveals tiers within its ranks. Green isn't the best player on his team, so it's impossible to picture him having the league's most value. Leonard is having a really good offensive season, but not a great one, and that distinction is fatal with the margin for error being so narrow.
If Durant, James and Westbrook sit alone on the non-Curry ballot, Durant would edge past the others. He's a lethal offensive force in any situation, and his freakish physical gifts are paying major dividends at the defensive end.
It's possible OKC's costars could cancel each other out to some, but that shouldn't be the case. Those two are the reasons the Thunder sit in the championship race, and individually, each is clearly a top-five talent.
There may not be a wrong answer to the silver medal debate, since the aforementioned trio have all produced MVP-caliber seasons. Based on what they're doing, the actual award race should be too close to call.
But this is just the latest example of Curry altering what should—or even can—happen in the NBA. This league is evolving, and the soon-to-be-two-time MVP is the game's biggest agent of change.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games played April 1.
