Is Lucas Leiva's Long-Term Liverpool Future at Centre-Back?
Lucas Leiva is set to make his return from a thigh injury to join up with Jurgen Klopp's Liverpool squad in April, ahead of what could be a decisive six weeks for the Brazilian as he looks to carve out a regular role in the German's starting lineup.
According to Goal.com's Melissa Reddy in March, Lucas "will not be afforded many minutes next season but is expected to be given the option of staying on," casting doubt over his future on Merseyside.
Emre Can and Jordan Henderson have established themselves as Klopp's first-choice options in midfield this season, while the arrival of Marko Grujic this summer, as well as the possibility of Piotr Zielinski joining from Udinese, as Reddy suggests, will continue to crowd Liverpool's ranks in the middle of the park.
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Twenty-two-year-old academy star Kevin Stewart signed a new long-term contract with the club in February, while the likes of Pedro Chirivella and Cameron Brannagan have bright futures in the midfield under Klopp—so where could Lucas find himself by pre-season?
As ex-Reds midfielder Jan Molby suggested in his column for the Liverpool Echo back in February, with Lucas utilised at centre-back in a handful of games for Klopp this season, the 29-year-old could find a home for himself in defence.
"Stranger things have happened," Molby concludes—but this is far from the outcome Klopp should find himself at this summer, as while Lucas has been a loyal servant of the club over the past nine years, Liverpool's centre-back ranks require an injection of proven quality that Lucas just cannot provide.
Molby's praise came after a strong defensive performance from Lucas in Liverpool's 2-1 FA Cup fourth-round replay defeat away to West Ham United, with the Dane referencing his own move from midfield to centre-back as he explained a possible transition ahead for the Reds' No. 21:
"I know what it's like to switch between centre midfield and centre back. I played as a sweeper in my time at Ajax, and during my first season at Liverpool too.
It changes your view on the game. Everything is front of you, and so the pace feels different.
But look, pace was never a big part of my game, and nor is it part of Lucas'. What he is good at is reading the game, being tactically aware and sweeping up dangerous situations.
"
Against the Hammers, Lucas partnered Tiago Ilori at centre-back, while in his other two appearances in this new role—against Manchester City in the Capital One Cup final and at home to FC Augsburg in the UEFA Europa League's round of 32—he lined up alongside Mamadou Sakho.
In each of these outings, Lucas provided Liverpool with a strong, rational defensive option, operating in the sweeping role, while his more front-footed partner stepped out of defence to quell attacks.
Though Liverpool eventually fell to a penalty-shootout defeat to City at Wembley Stadium, Lucas effectively shackled Sergio Aguero throughout that late-February clash, employing his defensive nous in a man-marking role up against his fellow South American and impressing both on the ground and in the air.
But these arguably remain isolated instances at this stage: Lucas' first appearance at Wembley, in a final; serving as captain among a youthful starting lineup in the FA Cup; and in a crucial knockout clash in Europe.
Lucas is yet to show week-in-week-out consistency in this role and, as Molby himself admits, "it's not a long term solution by any means"—so would he be content with a bit-part role at centre-back as his future at Liverpool?
His next opportunity to stake a claim for the future is likely to come in midfield, with his comeback from a thigh injury—suffered while taking a penalty against City—set to coincide with a two-game Premier League ban for Klopp's lieutenant, Can.
Can will miss Liverpool's clashes with Stoke City and Bournemouth in the league, and while Henderson remains to offer Klopp a constant in his two-man unit, one of Lucas, Stewart, Brannagan, Chirivella or Joe Allen are set to step in to take Can's place as the club captain's midfield partner.
With the most experience in the role, Lucas is arguably the most probable replacement, though a lack of pace—as Molby alluded to—has seen him struggle in Klopp's 4-2-3-1 so far this season.
Like at centre-back, Lucas requires a more mobile, front-footed option alongside him to thrive, with Klopp often utilising him in a 4-3-3 system, as when he was flanked by Can and James Milner in Liverpool's 1-1 draw at home to Southampton in October.
Allowed to settle, with the game playing out ahead of him, Lucas shone at Anfield that afternoon; but this worrying caveat, that Lucas requires a slow-paced game to truly showcase his talents, should be a concern for Klopp.
Lucas is Liverpool's most efficient defensive midfielder, averaging 5.4 successful tackles per 90 minutes in the league this season—more than any other Reds player—but his limitations make him a liability in Klopp's high-tempo system.
Instead, if Klopp is looking for an experienced head to operate as a back-up centre-back in the future, there remains a solution within his current squad in Kolo Toure.
The Ivorian has made 19 appearances for the Reds this season, as Klopp negotiated a number of injuries to his defensive line, and rarely failed to perform, with a particularly encouraging display coming in March's 3-0 win at home to City in the league.
Toure is, at 35 years old, at peace with a back-up role on Merseyside, but with his contract set to expire at the end of the season, he is set to leave the club for pastures new this summer. Though, speaking to Sky Sports in February, he outlined his ambition to remain in Klopp's squad beyond 2015/16:
"It doesn't matter what other people say, I'm very happy and I always give 100 percent for this club.
Sometimes you can make people change their minds by performing well and that's my challenge right now.
I can show people by my games that I'm still a top player. That's all I can do and I will fight until the end.
I've not had any offers for next season yet but if I keep playing like I am at the moment then I'm sure doors will open.
"
Klopp's move to sign Joel Matip this summer, and the return of Joe Gomez from a season-derailing ACL injury, will boost Liverpool's defensive options for the new campaign, while the blossoming partnership of Sakho and Dejan Lovren continues to push Toure down the pecking order.
This is unlikely to leave Lucas in a favourable role in Klopp's thinking at centre-back—and rightly so, as if the German is to sign another centre-back this summer, it will be one to challenge Matip, Sakho and Lovren.
If Lucas is to secure a long-term role under Klopp at Liverpool, he must harness the commitment and determination of Toure and prove his ability to shine in a two-man midfield in Can's absence; if not, he may well join his senior colleague through the Anfield exit this summer.
Statistics via WhoScored.com and Transfermarkt.co.uk.
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