Paraguay Draw Leaves Dunga's Brazil on World Cup Back Foot and in Need of Change

The pressure continues to mount on Dunga after his Brazil drew 2-2 at Paraguay on Tuesday, a result that hardly even seemed possible for the Selecao with 15 minutes left. But while a late sprint helped save Dunga's bacon, he'll know that the marathon nature of South American qualifying gives him time to right the ship.

That said, with just two wins from their opening six matches, Brazil are in obvious need of an adjustment or two.

With six rounds—or one-third—of CONMEBOL qualifiers for the 2018 FIFA World Cup in the books, Brazil currently sit outside the qualification zone. Uruguay and Ecuador are perched atop the heap with 13 points each, followed closely by Argentina and Chile on 11 and 10 points, respectively. 

CONMEBOL has just four guaranteed slots for the World Cup, so as it stands, those would be the four nations advancing to Russia for the World Cup in two years' time. Another berth is available through an inter-continental playoff for the fifth-placed finisher, but right now, that's not Brazil either. Dunga's side are sixth, having collected an unimpressive nine points from six games.

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As a disclaimer, it should be noted that CONMEBOL qualifying is terribly difficult, with matches played high in the mountains and deep in the humid tropics. In addition, the length of the campaign—18 matches over two years—means that even the best teams must remain both consistent and patient.

On the other hand, this is Brazil. The record five-time World Cup champions. We've come to expect better.

So what's the problem? Tuesday's draw brought to light some predictable issues, and the key for Dunga will be to search for solutions before qualification resumes in September.

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First, the Selecao had to play without Neymar, who was suspended. Missing their influential captain and attacker, Brazil—not surprisingly—struggled to break down Paraguay for most of Tuesday's match. Only in the final 15 minutes or so, when the hosts were fading physically, did Brazil find two precious goals to salvage a draw.

Neymar has yet to score in qualifying, but that doesn't mean his influence has lessened. Opposing teams still have to make specific plans to stop him, and as a leader, his contribution extends beyond scoring and setting up goals.

But this performance also showed that Dunga must find a way to play without him. Ricardo Oliveira, Neymar's replacement on the night, did score a goal to start the comeback, but he also missed a few chances and didn't really impress overall.

Of possibly even greater concern is the back line, which conceded twice for the second straight game and often floundered in its attempts to slow Paraguay's buoyant attack.

Again, absences were partly to blame for the performance against Paraguay. David Luiz was suspended for yellow card accumulation, though after his poor showing against Uruguay, that wasn't necessarily a bad thing. Meanwhile, Thiago Silva remains out of favor, depriving Brazil of a top-class talent.

"For me he's the best in the world," Lucas Moura, a club teammate of Silva's at PSG, told Canal Football Club (h/t ESPN FC's Mark Rodden). "I don't understand it, but you have to respect the decision of the manager. But I'm sure that we'll have our chance and that we'll make the most of it."

Whatever the reasons, defending has been an issue for Brazil over the last two games. And after recording just one clean sheet in their first six qualifiers, it's a potential long-term concern as well.

Writing for ESPN FC ahead of the Paraguay match, Fernando Duarte noted:

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[One] should remember that a tight defensive performance used to be the trademark of Dunga's style at the helm. In his first 11 games in charge after replacing Luiz Felipe Scolari in July 2014, Brazil only conceded three times. And while more cynical observers will see in the absence of David Luiz as a blessing in disguise after his woeful performance against the Uruguayans, the suspended PSG man will still leave some imbalance in the team.

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While the situation is not good, the news isn't all bad for Dunga and Brazil. Fully 12 matches remain on the qualifying schedule, meaning they have more than enough time to find some fixes.

The campaign resumes in a little more than five months as Brazil travel to Ecuador on Sept. 1 for a potentially tricky match, presumably at altitude in Quito. After that, the Selecao will play (in order) Colombia, Bolivia, Venezuela, Argentina and Peru before the end of the year. There are some tough tasks in there, but on a positive note, the games against Colombia and Argentina will both be on home soil.

At the end of that run, we should have a better idea of how Brazil's chances stand. For now, it's enough to say that unless Dunga makes a few changes, his side will be in trouble.