Final Four 2016: Odds and Predictions for Teams Seeking NCAA Title Game Berth
March is coming to a close, but the madness will continue.
The NCAA tournament is down to its Final Four after two weeks of play. The semifinals will be played in a doubleheader on Saturday, April 2, at NRG Stadium in Houston.
Three of the teams—Oklahoma, North Carolina and Villanova—are wholly unsurprising as Final Four participants. They're top seeds, won at least 25 games entering the tourney and feature NBA-caliber players.
TOP NEWS
NCAA Tournament Expansion Official 🚨
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
UConn's STACKED Schedule ☠️
Report: Biggest Spenders in Men's CBB 🤑
Syracuse, for once in its program's history, is the outsider, the wild card, the almost-Cinderella (hard to fit a glass slipper on an ACC team with a history of tournament success and a Hall of Fame coach). As a No. 10 seed that some saw unfit to participate in the NCAA tournament, Syracuse's appearance in Houston makes for a compelling storyline.
Here's the schedule, latest odds and predictions for the doubleheader. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Tuesday, March 29 at 7 a.m. ET.
| Time (ET) | Matchup (w/ spread) | Over/Under | TV | Prediction |
| 6:09 p.m. | No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 2 Villanova (-2) | 145.5 | TBS | Villanova 72-69 Oklahoma |
| 8:49 p.m. | No. 1 North Carolina (-9) vs. No. 10 Syracuse | 144.5 | TBS | UNC 70-60 Syracuse |
"Check out Bleacher Report's live updating bracket to track your picks along the road to the Final Four.
"
Game Previews
No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 2 Villanova
Saturday will be the second meeting between Oklahoma and Villanova this season. The Sooners won the first contest 78-55 on Dec. 7. Player of the Year candidate Buddy Hield has been the driving force behind Oklahoma's tournament run, but it was actually senior guard Isaiah Cousins who led the way in that December matchup, scoring 19 points and dishing 10 assists (Hield scored 18 points on 17 shots).
While that victory and the well-rounded effort that led to it should give Sooners fans some confidence heading into the Final Four, one can't discount how poorly Villanova shot the ball in that contest and how well they have been shooting the ball in this tournament.
In four NCAA tournament games, the Wildcats are shooting 55 percent from the field and 46 percent from three-point range. Against Miami (Florida) in the Sweet 16, Villanova scored 92 points and managed a staggering 1.58 points per possession, per SportsCenter. This game should be much closer than their previous meeting.
The Wildcats don't boast any singular talent like Hield, instead relying on a constellation of shooters in Ryan Arcidiacono, Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart on the outside, while center Daniel Ochefu pounds away at opponents in the post.
The mighty Kansas Jayhawks, who rank fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, managed to bring Villanova back to earth in the Elite Eight, but the Jayhawks still lost the game 64-59 thanks to a valiant defensive effort from Villanova.
The Wildcats shot just 4-of-18 from beyond the arc, dispelling the notion (at least for one night) that they have to hit threes to win games. Villanova made a dogged zone defense its calling card.
"We're not just an offensive team," Arcidiacono said after beating Kansas, per the Houston Chronicle's Gentry Estes. "We can grind games out and win on the defensive end. I think we did that tonight. We ended up shooting the lights out of the ball the first three games in the tournament.
"We knew it would come to an end at some point."
The obvious route for Villanova to win this game is to slow down Hield, who scored 37 points in an Elite Eight win over Oregon, but USA Today's George Schroeder notes Oklahoma is more than its talismanic star:
"Credit a lot of Sooners for Oklahoma’s first trip to the Final Four since 2002, and coach Lon Kruger’s second trip (he took Florida in 1994). Oklahoma has a veteran core — four starters with an unheard of, maybe unprecedented 104 consecutive starts now, and counting. Those guys can play, too. Hield got things started, hitting his first three from three-point range and scoring 11 points in the first five minutes. But guards Jordan Woodard and Isaiah Cousins had personal scoring streaks of nine and eight points, respectively.
"
As mentioned above, Oklahoma already proved it can score on Villanova without Hield having a massive game.
The Sooners do need to be wary of turnovers in this contest. Oklahoma coughed up the ball 15 times against Oregon despite the comfortable win, and Villanova ranks 25th in the nation in turnover margin, per NCAA.com. Giving up too many extra buckets to the Wildcats could prove fatal, especially if the shots are falling early and Oklahoma looks increasingly to Hield to get it back in the game.
Oklahoma's defense isn't quite as good as that of Kansas, but it's still good enough to rank 13th in the nation in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com. The Sooners should be able to prevent Villanova from going supernova again like it did against Miami, but even that might not be enough.
These Wildcats have come a long way since that Dec. 7 meeting in Hawaii. They won't have quite as much success defensively as they did against Kansas due to Hield's brilliance, but enough shots will fall for them to edge out a win.
Prediction: Villanova 72-69 Oklahoma
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 10 Syracuse
Syracuse's second-half switch from sitting back in the 2-3 zone to a full-court press against Virginia in the Elite Eight earned the program one of the more remarkable wins in NCAA tournament history.
The Orange were down by 14 at the half to Virginia, but coach Jim Boeheim's switch to a press defense with just under 10 minutes left in the game flummoxed the Cavs, who like to slow games down to a crawl and wait for the best possible shot. Virginia coach Tony Bennett credited the zone defense with helping Syracuse make plays in the full-court press.
"They're such good anticipators because of all the work they do in the zone,'' Bennett said, per Syracuse.com's Mike Waters. "A couple of those turnovers at just the wrong time were enough. And then they came down and converted.''
Part of Syracuse's success in this tournament is due to the fact that it can be difficult for teams to prepare for the 2-3 zone on short notice, to say nothing of a relentless press defense. Virginia had just two days to get ready for Syracuse, and the Cavaliers couldn't hit shots once they were thrown out of their comfort, ahem, zone.
North Carolina has the luxury of a week of preparation, and the team has experience busting the 2-3 zone from its two meetings with Syracuse earlier this season. It will also have seen Syracuse's press a couple of times in the tournament.
Considering the Tar Heels boast the most efficient offense in the nation, per KenPom.com, they should be able to end Syracuse's unexpected tournament run.
The Tar Heels have scored at least 83 points in each of their four NCAA tournament games and really lit up Indiana with a 101-86 win in the Sweet 16. At least four members of the starting lineup have scored in double figures in every tournament game. Brice Johnson is leading the way with 21 points per contest and has notched a school-record 23 double-doubles this season, per Sportscenter.
His efficacy in the high post will be key to breaking Syracuse's zone defense. If the Orange collapse to him, he can kick it outside to Marcus Paige, who is shooting 48 percent from three-point range in the tournament. If Syracuse takes away the perimeter, then North Carolina can rely on its distinct size advantage, per Sports Illustrated's Ted Keith:
"North Carolina's imposing frontline is the best in college basketball, featuring 6'10" All-America Brice Johnson, 6'10" Kennedy Meeks and 6'8" Justin Jackson in the starting lineup and backups Isaiah Hicks, a 6'9" jumping jack who was the ACC sixth man of the year, and 6'11" Joel James. The Orange, meanwhile, have only one player, junior DaJuan Coleman, who goes even 6'9", and he plays just 17.5 minutes per game and averages only 4.7 rebounds per contest. The Tar Heels shredded Syracuse's zone with their big-to-big passing in the Jan. 9 game, as Johnson racked up eight assists, mostly to Hicks, who finished with 21 points. Carolina boasts a +8.4 rebounding margin this season while Syracuse has been outrebounded by its opponents.
"
The Orangemen will need huge efforts from Malachi Richardson, who scored 21 second-half points against Virginia, and the reliable Michael Gbinije if they are to pull out a win in this one. However, North Carolina has the size, skill and talent to overwhelm Syracuse and head to the championship game.
Prediction: North Carolina 70-60 Syracuse
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
