2016 NBA Draft: Ranking the Best Prospects in the Final Four
The 2016 Final Four is set, and NBA scouts should have plenty to monitor in Houston.
Lottery teams expecting to pick high will likely be locked onto Oklahoma's Buddy Hield, who's averaging 29.2 points in the NCAA tournament and bound to draw top-five looks in June.
Villanova doesn't offer much star power, but it does have a couple of guards scouts will be tracking, whether it's for this summer or the next. Syracuse also has a pair of rising freshmen who've generated some draft buzz during the team's unexpected run.
Meanwhile, NBA teams looking for a frontcourt energizer will be watching North Carolina. During his senior year, Brice Johnson has surprisingly emerged as the team's most coveted 2016 prospect.
These rankings are based on long-term NBA potential. It's possible a few of the following prospects return to school and declare next summer. Either way, the rankings reflect how I expect the prospects to stack up in the pros five years from now.
10. Jalen Brunson (Villanova, PG, Freshman)
1 of 10
Forced to share the ball with senior Ryan Arcidiacono, Jalen Brunson never had much of a chance to put up big freshman numbers.
Nonetheless, he's been efficient for the most part, shooting 45.2 percent and 38.7 percent from three.
At 6'3", 199 pounds, Brunson has good size for a point guard, though he lacks breakdown quickness and explosiveness around the basket. Still, he's crafty with the ball and capable of stopping-and-popping off the dribble (40 percent two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com). Between his form and the early percentages, it looks like his jumper will be his biggest weapon.
With more freedom to run the Villanova offense in 2016-17, he'll have a better platform to showcase some playmaking and passing. Brunson's ceiling may be backup NBA point guard, but that could be enough to draw late-first- or second-round interest in 2017.
9. Marcus Paige (North Carolina, PG/SG, Senior)
2 of 10
Marcus Paige didn't have the year an NBA draft-stock spike would have required.
He's still a dangerous shot-maker, capable of scoring in bunches. Paige's 21 points just helped the Tar Heels bury Indiana in the Sweet 16. And he's averaging over two three-point makes per game for the third consecutive season.
Unfortunately, Paige has also struggled with shooting consistency as a senior (34.5 percent from deep), while his 3.7 assists are a career low. On the bright side, despite a glaring lack of athleticism, he's finishing at a respectable 47 percent clip inside the arc and makes an impressive 46.2 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com.
His skill level and character are undeniably high. But how much will his limited size (6'1", 175 lbs), speed and explosiveness hold him back?
Paige should get looks in the 2017 second round and hope to carve out a career as an offensive bench spark.
8. Isaiah Cousins (Oklahoma, PG/ SG, Senior)
3 of 10
Buddy Hield overshadows him, but Isaiah Cousins' senior year deserves some recognition.
Cousins totaled 15 assists during Oklahoma's last two wins against Oregon and Texas A&M. He more than doubled his assist total from a year ago (77 to 167) despite sharing ball-handling duties with Jordan Woodard.
Though undersized for an NBA 2-guard, the Cousins' growth as a passer may allow teams to view him as more of a combo. He's also shooting at least 40 percent from three for the third consecutive season.
At 6'4", 200 pounds, Cousins has the build to play guard in the pros. Teams will have to decide whether he offers enough offensively.
Cousins may have ultimately put himself on the second-round radar during the season. A pair of big performances in the Final Four wouldn't hurt his chances of getting drafted.
7. Josh Hart (Villanova, SG, Junior)
4 of 10
Josh Hart took another step during his third year with Villanova, having emerged as the team's top scoring weapon (15.3 points per game) while maintaining his reputation as a strong defender.
He wasn't at his best against Kansas in the Elite Eight, but Hart looked sharp in the Wildcats' previous two wins over Miami and Iowa, combining to shoot 12-of-20 (34 total points) from the floor.
Under the NBA lens, he sports average physical tools (6'5", 6'7 ½" wingspan) and athleticism for a 2-guard. He'd have received a lot more NBA love this year if his three-point percentage didn't dip to 35.3 percent from 46.4.
Still, his jumper looks fairly smooth, and he does a number of things that highlight intriguing role-player potential, such as playing efficiently within the Villanova offense (50.6 percent field-goal mark), rebounding (6.7 rebounds per game) and guarding multiple positions.
Hart doesn't have one core strength, which will make it difficult for him to crack the 2016 first round. But coming back and improving his three-point percentage and playmaking ability could lead to legitimate NBA interest in 2017.
6. Michael Gbinije (Syracuse, SG, Senior)
5 of 10
Michael Gbinije has emerged as Syracuse's primary playmaker in 2015-16, leading the Orange in both scoring (17. points) and assists (4.4).
And considering he's 6'7", athletic and shoots 39.9 percent from three, it's become impossible to ignore him as an NBA prospect—even though he'll be turning 24 years old early in June.
He's shown the ability to create for teammates and set the table, as well as score one-on-one or spot up off the ball. Between his size and versatility, Gbinije might remind some of Evan Turner.
Gbinije hasn't been at his best during Syracuse's Final Four run, but he still managed to drop 23 points against Middle Tennessee and 20 on Gonzaga. At his age, the first round may be off limits. But guards with wing size who can pass and shoot are just too rare.
5. Malachi Richardson (Syracuse, SG, Freshman)
6 of 10
Inconsistency kept Malachi Richardson from generating much draft buzz in 2015-16. But the good days have highlighted some NBA-caliber upside. And his best may have just come in the second half against Virginia, when he scored 21 points and helped propel Syracuse to the Final Four.
Though he's a relatively average athlete, Richardson has textbook 6'6" size for an NBA 2-guard. He's a decent ball-handler who can beat defenders in space and get to the basket, where we'll occasionally see him take contact and finish.
Still, the main attraction is Richardson's shooting and perimeter scoring. Despite a 35.2 percent clip from downtown, he makes 2.1 threes per game while demonstrating confidence and smooth mechanics. And he can let it fly off a couple of dribbles.
Returning as a sophomore will ultimately be the best move, as Richardson's struggled mightily inside the arc, particularly in the mid-range (22.2 percent two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com).
But he clearly possesses pro potential with strong physical tools and a promising stroke.
4. Justin Jackson (North Carolina, SF, Sophomore)
7 of 10
Justin Jackson didn't have the breakout season scouts were likely hoping for. His numbers look relatively similar to last year's.
But he plays a high-percentage brand of ball (46.7 percent field-goal mark, one turnover per game) and takes good shots within the North Carolina offense. The hope is that more of them will start to fall one day. Just based on his mechanics and capability, Jackson looks like a better shooter than his 28.1 percent three-point clip suggests.
Otherwise, he's North Carolina's biggest transition weapon, having finished with a team-leading 72 field goals during the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, per Hoop-Math.com. And though not a creative one-on-one scorer, he does a nice job of capitalizing on what the defense gives him by getting to the rack in line drives and converting runners and floaters off one foot.
He's also an above-average passer (2.9 assists) and high-IQ player, traits that speak to his role-player potential.
Jackson probably needs another year in school to raise his three-point percentage, but with a natural stroke, it seems like only a matter of time. He'd be a sneaky buy-low candidate if he did choose to declare in 2016.
3. Brice Johnson (North Carolina, PF, Senior)
8 of 10
Brice Johnson is capping off a breakout senior year with a terrific NCAA tournament, having gone for at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in each of North Carolina's last three games.
His activity level is phenomenal. Johnson puts heavy pressure on the rim and glass, consistently positioning himself for finishes, putbacks and boards.
The NBA folks will no doubt covet his motor and bounce around the basket. But against Notre Dame in the Elite Eight, they also got to see his developing mid-range shooting stroke. He's clearly improved his touch, which has shown up mostly at the stripe; he's raised his free-throw percentage to 78.9 percent from 67.8.
He's not a big rim protector and doesn't stretch the floor, weaknesses that hold his ceiling in check. Still, Johnson ultimately projects as an interior energizer whose responsibilities will revolve around running, jumping and cleaning up inside. He'll draw looks in the 15-30 range.
2. Tyler Lydon (Syracuse, PF, Freshman)
9 of 10
Though merely a role player for Syracuse, Tyler Lydon's game seems tailor-made for today's NBA.
With size, length (6'11 ¾" wingspan), athleticism and a 40.9 percent three-point stroke, he fits the mold of your prototypical stretch 4. And given the shortage of bigs who can stretch the floor and protect the rim, his 1.8 blocks per game are that more appealing.
He just hit three triples and racked up five blocks in Syracuse's comeback win over Virginia in the Elite Eight.
Though not a shot-creator, he has a strong feel for making plays without needing any drawn up for him. Lydon may want to think about returning to have some production and consistency on the resume. Coming back and building on this year's 10.2 points and 6.3 rebounds could potentially lead to 2017 lottery buzz.
"He's a lottery pick in time,'' Middle Tennessee coach Kermit Davis told Syracuse.com's Mike Waters. "He's something. He's something.''
Either way, Lydon looks like a first-round talent and a fit at the NBA's power forward position.
1. Buddy Hield (Oklahoma, SG, Senior)
10 of 10
Buddy Hield's 37-point outburst against Oregon in the Elite Eight marked the third time this year he'd hit eight three-pointers during a game. On the season, he's making a ridiculous 4.1 threes per contest and connecting at a staggering 46.5 percent clip.
Despite defenses knowing what to expect, not one has had an answer. While Hield's range and accuracy are off the charts, it's his ability to shoot off screens, pump fakes and escape dribbles that's so convincing.
He's also improved his shot creativity, as we've recently seen him separate with step-back jumpers, converting off balance and under pressure.
Earlier in the year, I made comparisons to J.J Redick, but at this stage, it's time to raise the bar.
Hield is starting to looking more like Bradley Beal or even Ray Allen on days such as Saturday. Regardless of what he does against Villanova, it's becoming tougher to imagine him falling outside the top five in the 2016 draft.
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