
Elite 8 2016: Updated Odds and Predictions for Sunday's NCAA Tournament Games
In a year without any clear favorites, the NCAA tournament's Final Four could comprise exclusively of No. 1 and 2 seeds.
The bracket's premier contenders were scrutinized as weak top seeds who wouldn't deserve top billing most years. Such parity foreshadowed optimal madness, perhaps even with a No. 16 seed winning for the first time.
Or not. Virginia and North Carolina can join Villanova and Oklahoma in the Final Four with Elite Eight victories on Sunday night. Syracuse and Notre Dame, however, can maintain some chaos by continuing their unlikely runs.
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The Fighting Irish keep surviving epic nail-biters, and the Orange arguably shouldn't have even made the tournament in the first place—and both are significant underdogs, per Odds Shark. Yet they're each a sizable upset away from invading the closing quadrant.
NCAA Bracket
For the full updated bracket, see here.
Sunday's Schedule, Odds and Predictions
| 6:09 p.m. | No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 10 Syracuse | TBS | UVA -8 | 72-65 UVA |
| 8:49 p.m. | No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 6 Notre Dame | TBS | UNC -10 | 88-77 UNC |
Virginia vs. Syracuse
Syracuse couldn't have asked for a clearer path to the Elite Eight. After getting awarded a No. 10 seed despite a 19-13 record, the Orange encountered No. 15 Middle Tennessee and No. 11 Gonzaga rather than No. 2 Michigan State and No. 3 Utah.
After Friday night's Sweet 16 win, Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim pushed back at everyone pointing to the Orange's fortuitous circumstances, per Yahoo Sports' Bob Condor.
“I thought Dayton was pretty darned good until we beat them,” Boeheim said. “Then all of a sudden they weren't any good. I thought Middle Tennessee was pretty good until we beat them, and then they weren't any good. So I guess now Gonzaga probably won't be any good tomorrow morning.”

Despite shooting 36.1 percent (22-of-61) from the floor, Syracuse edged out Gonzaga, 63-60, in a contested showdown by causing 17 turnovers. That will prove a tough formula to repeat against Virginia, who has relinquished 9.2 turnovers per game while causing 11.7 takeaways.
The Cavaliers operate at a methodically slow pace, causing opponents to muster a minuscule 59.9 points per contest. In their ACC showdown on Jan. 24, the Orange exceeded that average in a 73-65 road loss, buoyed by 13 combined three-pointers from Malachi Richardson, Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney.
Syracuse also missed 17 of its 30 long-range attempts, but Boeheim would be wise to employ a similar plan. A slow tempo heavily favors the Cavs, so the underdogs must embrace a high-risk strategy to avoid the superior squad prevailing.
Virginia complements its stifling defense with a No. 8-rated offense. Despite a couple of substandard performances from Malcolm Brogdon, the club is averaging 80.7 points per NCAA tournament contest. If the team's leading scorer heats up alongside his jelling offense, Syracuse doesn't stand a chance.
In order to engineer a narrow upset, the Orange will need everything to keep going perfectly for them. They're somehow still standing, but they'll reach the end of the line on Sunday.
North Carolina vs. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish continue to send their fans into panic. After snatching a five-point victory away from Wisconsin, they have now played six single-digit tournament games—five victories—over the past two years.
North Carolina gave them a far different experience during the ACC tournament, clobbering them by 31 points to redeem a regular-season upset. "We could make our travel plans at halftime," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey said after the rout, per ESPN.com. "Let me put it that way."
The Tar Heels have not slowed down since, coasting through each NCAA tournament round by at least 15 points. Their Sweet 16 evisceration of Indiana should especially frighten the Fighting Irish. They stormed to a 101-86 triumph behind a resurgent Marcus Paige, who drained six three-pointers in a 21-point outing.
The senior guard matched his highest scoring tally since posting 21 in a losing effort against Notre Dame on Feb. 6. Courtesy of SportsCenter, he passed a basketball icon on the school's scoring leaderboard in the process:
North Carolina ranks No. 2 in adjusted offense despite Paige's prolonged slump. Based on Friday night's outburst, the unit knows no bounds when he's rolling.
CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein also warned the opposition of Paige's revival: "If this guy plays like he did against Indiana, there's not a single team left in the bracket that can beat North Carolina."
Notre Dame has defeated the odds before, but North Carolina's relentless offense presents major matchup problems for a team that yields 70.1 points per game with a No. 154 rating in adjusted defense.
Although the Fighting Irish have already defeated the Tar Heels this year, they're unlikely to replicate the upset in a shootout that will unravel out of their reach.
Advanced stats courtesy of KenPom.com unless otherwise noted.
Check out Bleacher Report's live updating bracket to track your picks along the road to the Final Four.



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