NCAA Tournament 2016: Analyzing Championship Odds for Remaining Teams
Can anyone trump Kansas?
The question seems more pertinent than ever going into the Sweet 16 after a chaotic opening two rounds. Las Vegas loves the Jayhawks, and how could oddsmakers ignore them? Powerhouses such as Michigan State and Kentucky have already bowed out.
Of course, such a state of affairs opens the door for other programs to make some noise. Call it a major luxury for bettors hoping to make some serious profit, as plenty of alluring options exist among the 16 teams left standing.
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Let's look at how Las Vegas feels about each team's chances and highlight a few lines worth keeping an eye on before the Sweet 16 tips.
Championship Odds Ahead of Sweet 16
| Kansas | +350 |
| North Carolina | +425 |
| Virginia | +575 |
| Oklahoma | +750 |
| Oregon | +1200 |
| Villanova | +1200 |
| Duke | +1800 |
| Indiana | +2000 |
| Texas A&M | +2000 |
| Maryland | +2800 |
| Miami | +2800 |
| Iowa State | +2800 |
| Gonzaga | +2800 |
| Wisconsin | +3300 |
| Syracuse | +3300 |
| Notre Dame | +3300 |
Odds Analysis
Virginia (+575)
When one thinks of the favorites left standing in the bracket, the mind goes right to Kansas and North Carolina.
It's an understandable order, but bettors will want to consider the Virginia Cavaliers right up there. Virginia sits third in ESPN's RPI rankings after a solid 16-7 mark against the RPI top 100. Over at KenPom.com, it ranks tops in the nation, sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Perhaps most important? The Cavaliers won't have to worry about Michigan State, the team that knocked them from the Big Dance in each of the past two seasons. In other words, Virginia has to take care of business against fourth-seeded Iowa State to then get a matchup with a 10th or 11th seed.
The Cavaliers shouldn't have any issues taking care of business, either. Malcolm Brogdon (18.6 points per game) continues to play out of his mind while leading an offense boasting a 41 percent conversion rate from deep.
The well-rounded team moved past a No. 16 seed in the first round and then dismissed No. 9 Butler in the second, 77-69 via 22 points from Brogdon and the team shooting 47 percent from deep while forcing nine turnovers.
Remember, Virginia has already bested tournament notables such as North Carolina, Villanova and Duke this year. Oddsmakers might not think so highly of the Cavaliers, but bettors in search of a solid payout should.
Oregon (+1200)
Even further down the odds list despite a No. 1 seed are the Oregon Ducks.
The Ducks don't have the benefit of having a status as a conventional basketball powerhouse, which might be great news for bettors.
Oregon ranks second in RPI after a superb 22-4 mark against the RPI top 100 despite a strength of schedule ranking second in the nation. Like other sports, the Ducks fly high thanks to offense, with this one ranking 11th in adjusted efficiency at KenPom.com.
Said offense certainly made the highlight reels over the first two rounds in a 91-point showing against No. 16 Holy Cross and a 69-point outburst against No. 8 Saint Joseph's.
Interestingly enough, oddsmakers aren't the only people who slept on the Ducks. St. Joseph's coach Phil Martelli confirmed the notion, according to Zach Helfand of the Los Angeles Times: "This is my livelihood, and I'm saying to you, until I heard on the broadcast that they had finished the season No. 5, I had no idea. If you said to our players, 'Did Oregon win the Pac-12 or did Arizona?' They would lean to Arizona. As would basketball people in Philadelphia."
Rest assured the rest of the teams in the bracket now understand how dangerous the lone Pac-12 team left standing can be.
Oregon has to deal with Duke first, though outgunning an inexperienced team isn't impossible. Texas A&M or Oklahoma awaits after, but again, the Oregon offense can run most anyone off the court.
While some of the teams in the Big Dance might have whiffed on understanding Oregon, bettors will want to take favorable odds and run with them.
Syracuse (+3300)
Remember when the general consensus seemed to suggest Syracuse should have never made the tournament? That the selection committee shouldn't have gone soft on the Orange because of coach Jim Boeheim's suspension during the regular season?
The Orange have put on a couple of statements to prove the doubters wrong.
The first round? A 70-51 shellacking of seventh-seeded Dayton in which four starters hit 10 or more points and strong defense held Dayton to 32 percent shooting from the floor. The second round? A simple 75-50 blowout of 15th-seeded Middle Tennessee, where the Orange held the Blue Raiders to less than 30 percent shooting from the floor.
As one can glean from the above, the Orange rank well in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom.com, landing 22nd. A 68th RPI and 8-10 mark against the RPI top 100 don't do the team justice, not with how much it struggled without Boeheim at the controls.
Syracuse simply leans on strengths once hitting the bracket, a point illustrated by Sal Capaccio of WGR 550:
The rest of the path isn't hard to figure out. Such a talented defense has to silence Gonzaga and then perhaps encounter the aforementioned Cavaliers in what would be one of the bracket's most interesting showdowns.
At these odds and given the surrounding circumstances, bettors simply cannot ignore the Orange.
Check out Bleacher Report's live updating bracket to track your picks along the road to the Final Four.
Stats and information courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN and KenPom.com. Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
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