2016 NFL Draft Prospects: Latest Stock Up, Stock Down Update
March is pro-day month of the NFL draft process, one that can provide value to evaluators, as well as become a prime area where "over-evaluation" can occur. That said, NFL teams travel to pro days across the country in the hopes of finishing up their draft grades and finalizing their draft weekend board.
Stock report changes are subjective, as they primarily relate to those in the media hearing what NFL teams actually believe on these players. However, newer combine testing numbers and positional workouts can make a difference at this point in the process, as teams are splitting hairs between different prospects in their positional rankings.
With just a little over a month to go before boards are set and players officially join their new franchises, here are the players who are moving up or down draft boards.
Stock Up: Jared Goff, QB, California
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Finishing 61-of-69 during his pro-day throwing session, Jared Goff was subjected to ample critiques and focuses during his workout. New Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton even went so far as to spray water on the ball during his session to test Goff’s ability to handle a wet ball under the pressure of the pro day.
Where Goff lands is far from finalized, but his impressive pro-day performance is especially notable thanks to the decision-makers who were in attendance. Quarterbacks are drafted in large part thanks to the decision-makers who vouch for them in the draft process, and a strong pro-day performance can go a long way. For a slighter-built, adequate-arm-talent passer, Goff will win teams over thanks to his anticipation and reliability.
Stock Down: Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State
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After a productive college career within the Mississippi State offense, Dak Prescott earned further praise from NFL evaluators after a strong Senior Bowl performance. Despite hailing from an offense comparable to Tim Tebow’s at Florida, Prescott had seemingly begun to separate himself from the former Dan Mullen quarterback disciple and emerged as a viable quarterback of the future option.
But after a DUI arrest last week (h/t Pro Football Talk), Prescott may have lost some momentum as a top quarterback prospect. In a class that lacks top-end talent but offers six to eight viable long-term starters, teams may have dropped him in their rankings of the draftable passers. It’s unlikely that the incident pushed him totally off boards, but it couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Stock Up: Corey Coleman, WR, Baylor
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Already considered one of the 2016 NFL draft’s best receiver prospects, Corey Coleman had to make up for not participating at the 2016 NFL Scouting Combine. With all eyes on him at the Baylor pro day last week, Coleman didn’t disappoint.
He posted a 4.37 time in the 40-yard dash, which would have been among the best at the receiver position at the NFL Scouting Combine. The vertical threat posted remarkable numbers in the Baylor offense as a junior, but scouts may have question marks about his ability to separate outside of the Baylor offense and if his lingering drop issues will plague him early in the NFL. That said, they can’t argue about his vertical capabilities, and that may be enough to solidify him as a top-25 overall selection.
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Stock Down: Jayron Kearse, SAF, Clemson
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Boasting ample NFL talent after a national championship run, the Clemson Tigers saw a full house at the pro day in early March. While fellow highly projected prospects Shaq Lawson, Kevin Dodd and Mackensie Alexander impressed, Jayron Kearse did not.
The safety prospect already had warts on his scouting report due to missteps in run defense and limited coverage range. But according to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net (h/t Walter Football), Kearse struggled in coverage drills. In fact, according to Pauline’s source, "Kearse may be best off adding 20 pounds and moving to linebacker." While the transition may be best for his long-term NFL prognosis, it’s not great news for his potential draft destination.
Stock Up: Luke Rhodes, ILB, William & Mary
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While the pro-day circuit has value for every prospect in some respects, it’s especially valuable for small-school prospects who weren’t invited to the NFL Scouting Combine and need the extra attention. Luke Rhodes fits that bill, as the two-time All-CAA first-teamer ran a 4.64 time in the 40-yard dash, jumped 9'10" in the broad jump and posted a 35-inch vertical leap at his pro day, according to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net.
One of the best players in the FCS the last two seasons, Rhodes offers plus core strength in traffic, good range when scrapping laterally and activeness in pursuit in both run defense and pass rushing. The athletic testing may have exceeded expectations that evaluators had based on film, and he may be in draftable consideration for all NFL teams.
Stock Down: Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky
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As is typical in the draft season, Noah Spence’s draft value could be going in opposite directions, depending on who you ask. On one hand, as reported by Matt Miller of Bleacher Report, Spence has eight team visits scheduled over the next few weeks, which shows clear interest from NFL teams.
On the other hand, Spence’s drug use and overall character have given teams pause when considering him in Round 1. As The MMQB's Robert Klemko reported, some in the NFL may believe that first-round projections are off-base entirely. In my opinion, Spence is among the top 10 talents in this draft class and worthy of a first-round pick even when considering his character red flags. But based on the severity of his drug past and current climate in the NFL, there may be a growing sense that teams will consider passing on the pass-rusher early in the draft.
Stock Up: Tavon Young, CB, Temple
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One of my favorite prospects in the entire 2016 NFL draft, Tavon Young utilized his heavily attended pro day to further boost his draft stock. In a pro day I personally attended, Young stood on most of his NFL Scouting Combine numbers except for his broad jump, where he finished with a 10"1', better than his combine number.
More importantly, Young looked remarkably smooth in hip turn and ball skill drills, showcasing the same fluidity, balance and vertical explosion that he displayed in his matchup against Will Fuller early in the season. While Young’s size (5'9", 183 lbs) may push him down boards for some teams, his pro-day workout and on-film tenacity still make him one of the top cornerbacks in the 2016 class.
Stock Down: Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
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It’s unfair to consider a prospect falling on draft boards because of an injury, but Kendall Fuller’s meniscus injury has prevented him from working out for teams throughout the process. As other cornerbacks rise through the process, Fuller is forced to remain on the backburner for teams.
The one-time first-round prospect was unable to work out at Virginia Tech’s pro day last week, and according to Tony Pauline of DraftInsider.net, there’s “no definitive decision” on whether Fuller will be able to work out for teams before the draft. With the severity of his injury coupled with a strong cornerback class in the first two rounds, Fuller’s draft value may suffer, because teams won't be able to assess his abilities after the injury.
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