Matching Top 2016 NBA Draft Prospects with Their Best NBA Team Fits
Throw the NBA's 2016 draft lottery odds out the window. Sussing out the perfect matches for this year's best college prospects and teams, almost regardless of lottery positioning, is the focus here.
Our top seven prospects, listed alphabetically, will be based off Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman's mock draft. Their destinations, however, are up for grabs.
Eligible teams must be projected lottery squads, to be sure. But that's all they have to be. The only other rule: Each team can be selected only once.
Proposed fits are mostly about the player and where his skill set would be best utilized as a rookie if he had his pick of the lottery litter.
Dragan Bender, Croatia, PF/C: New Orleans Pelicans
While the New Orleans Pelicans have a pressing need for another wing, they're due for upgrades at just about every position.
Ryan Anderson is slated for unrestricted free agency and bound to price himself out of The Big Easy, while neither Alexis Ajinca nor Omer Asik provides the spacing necessary to maximize the Pelicans' offensive potential with Anthony Davis.
Dragan Bender, 18, is a risk and, most likely, a project. He doesn't even average 15 minutes per game overseas and won't put up huge numbers as a scorer. But he stands taller than 7'0" in shoes, per Draft Express and has the ability to shoot threes; he's putting down nearly 38 percent of his deep balls with Maccabi FOX Tel Aviv, according to RealGM.
It's not hard to imagine him one day parlaying that range into a full-time role beside Davis. The two can vacillate between the power forward and center positions, headlining five-out lineups that spread opposing defenses into submission.
Bender, unlike Anderson, can protect the rim, while Davis chases around ball-handlers and jumps passing lanes. He is blocking nearly 6.5 percent of all shots he contests—a mark that would rank second in the NBA.
And unlike Ajinca or Asik, Bender can impact the offense as more than a pick-and-roll diver. The threat of his jumper forces defenses outside the paint, and he has above-average vision from the foul line extended:
A healthy version of Tyreke Evans will help the Pelicans get their perimeter fix next season. And there are plenty of should-be affordable wings hitting free agency, including Kent Bazemore (unrestricted), Allen Crabbe (restricted) and Evan Fournier (restricted).
Signing a stretchy big with shot-blocking chops who decreases the team's dependence on Asik is trickier. Those breed of towers are scarce overall and nearly nonexistent in free agency. Bender injects that versatility into New Orleans' frontcourt at wholesale cost.
Jaylen Brown, California, SF: Minnesota Timberwolves
Jaylen Brown brings the Minnesota Timberwolves closer to establishing an identity on both ends of the floor.
Minnesota, the second-worst defensive team in the league, is ill-equipped to guard rangy, modern-day frontcourts. Throwing Brown alongside Andrew Wiggins gives the Timberwolves a long-limbed duo of their own.
Interim head coach Sam Mitchell has finally ditched the "Andrew Wiggins is a shooting guard" farce—for the most part. Most of his minutes are now coming at small forward, and slotting Brown at the 3 opens up the opportunity for the 6'8" Wiggins to spend more time as a small-ball 4.
Brown, in those scenarios, has the 225-pound frame to defend shooting guards, small forwards and perimeter-oriented power forwards. He blocks a decent number of shots for a 6'7" wing (one per 40 minutes), and his rotations around the rim are better than everyone already on the Timberwolves, other than Karl-Anthony Towns:
Incorporating Brown on offense shouldn't be a problem for Minnesota. He enjoys a usage rate north of 30 at California and boasts an unimpressive 30 percent success rate from deep. But he showed potential as a spot-up shooter, and his fearless drives, which earn him more than nine free-throw attempts per 40 minutes, help a Minnesota team that lacks dribble penetration outside Ricky Rubio and Wiggins.
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma, SG: Denver Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets already have their core in place with Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari (injured), Nikiola Jokic and Emmanuel Mudiay leading the charge. All they need to do now, aside from break up that Kenneth Faried-Joffrey Lauvergne-Jusuf Nurkic tricycle, is round out the roster with complementary pieces.
Buddy Hield's 25 points per game won't translate to the NBA, at least not right away. But his 46-plus percent conversion rate from downtown is of immense value to the Nuggets.
Denver has three players (Barton, Gallinari, Mudiay) who rank in the top 50 of drives per game. Hield can make defenses pay for collapsing on that penetration as a dangerous catch-and-shoot marksman.
Fitting him into a rotation that already includes Barton and Gary Harris (and will eventually need to account for Wilson Chandler) poses logistical issues. But the Nuggets rank second-to-last in spot-up efficiency, and Hield now blends his touch with a consistent attack mode. Nearly one-third of his shots this season have come at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com, where he's shooting around 63 percent.
If the Nuggets can get Hield to toss more kick-outs on his drives, they have the option of using him at point guard whenever Mudiay takes a seat. They've tried something similar with Harris from time to time, but to no avail. Harris is also around the same height and build as Hield, and head coach Mike Malone hasn't been afraid to use him at the 3.
Adding Hield, then, doesn't overwhelm the Nuggets' swingman corps. To the contrary, his shoot-and-drive style is just what their offense needs.
Brandon Ingram, Duke, SF: Los Angeles Lakers
The Los Angeles Lakers have to get a dynamic wing to start off the post-Kobe Bryant rebuilding era (sorry, Nick Young), and there is no better option than Duke's Brandon Ingram.
Grabbing the oversized swingman (6'9") gives the Lakers an NBA-ready defender to pair with Jordan Clarkson (restricted free agent) and D'Angelo Russell, two guards who, as Wasserman wrote, are perfect running mates for the soon-to-be 19-year-old Ingram:
"Ingram would ultimately seem like an ideal fit between the Lakers' up-and-coming backcourt and Julius Randle. A 6'9" wing with extraordinary length, Ingram shoots 41.3 percent from three and can create his own shot with pull-ups and fallaways in the mid-range.
And we've seen flashes of ball-handling and passing that suggest he can be more than just a scorer and shot-maker.
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Ingram is just the eighth freshman since 1994-95 to average at least 16 points, six rebounds, two assists and one block per game. He will be able to soak up time at the 4 once he adds some bulk and can already dot the arc around Clarkson- or Russell-initiated pick-and-rolls—you know, once the Lakers actually start running pick-and-rolls again.
Any flexible head coach (shout-out, someone who isn't Byron Scott) would let Ingram jump-start pick-and-roll sets of his own. He has evolved as a playmaker from inside the post and knows how to pass out of double-teams while on the move (even if his teammates can't always finish):
After falling behind the NBA's trend of developing multiposition dynamos, the Lakers need Ingram to punch their ticket into the modern era. And, for their part, they can offer Ingram the high-usage role he deserves coming out of college.
Jamal Murray, Kentucky, SG: Philadelphia 76ers
Jamal Murray won't be the Philadelphia 76ers' first-choice addition after likely maintaining the Association's worst regular-season record, but he fits the bill of what they so badly need: a wing who can shoot.
Kentucky's spacing has improved a great deal compared to last season, when it didn't even rank in the top 200 of three-point attempts, and Murray is at the forefront of that progress. He has made and attempted more three-balls than any other freshman and is finding nylon on almost 42 percent of his long-distance attempts.
There won't be as many open looks available to Murray in Philadelphia, where the Sixers, barring a trade, will be hampered by too many shooting-challenged bigs in Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor. But head coach Brett Brown has his troops attacking the basket more than any other team, and Philly's passing percentage out of those drives is second only to the San Antonio Spurs.
Partnering that style with someone like Murray who, contrary to Nik Stauskas, can actually shoot would be a significant boon for the Sixers' league-worst offense. Noel and, at times, Okafor, even set sturdy enough screens that should allot Murray ample looks off curls:
Kentucky, meanwhile, has tried out Murray as its primary ball-carrier on occasion. His 2.4 dimes per 40 minutes won't be winning him any assist titles, but he forces enough defensive breakdowns on the dribble to justify such duty.
And no NBA team is better positioned to roll the dice on part-time point guard experiments than the Isaiah Canaan-, Kendall Marshall-, T.J. McConnell- and Ish Smith-piloted Sixers.
Jakob Poeltl, Utah, C: Toronto Raptors (via New York Knicks)
Bismack Biyombo joins Hassan Whiteside as the only two NBA players clearing 13 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per 36 minutes this season. And Biyombo, like Whiteside, will be a free agent this summer.
Translation? Biyombo is going to get handsomely paid for his services. With almost $14.3 million committed to Jonas Valanciunas in 2016-17, the Toronto Raptors cannot justify shelling out between $8 million and $12 million annually for a backup big—not even with the salary cap set to explode.
Luckily for Raptors general manager Masai Ujiri, he has a lottery pick coming his way from either Denver or the New York Knicks, courtesy of the latter. Utah's Jakob Poeltl, who is all over the place in mock drafts, would fit in quite nicely.
Similar to Biyombo, Poeltl can be used as a spot rim protector and pick-and-roll slasher. He blocked more than 1.5 shots per game in each of his two seasons at Utah and lives to set screens from anywhere on the floor. Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph and, provided he doesn't leave in free agency, DeMar DeRozan would have a field day with all the separation the 7-footer creates:
Poeltl isn't the most explosive tower, but he can play above the rim, and his footwork in the post is more refined than ever—though he does tend to rely too much on generating contact during contested shots.
His increasing range is ideal for the Raptors' spacey offensive model. He shot under 40 percent on two-point jumpers but brought up his free-throw accuracy while making more trips to the charity stripe by nearly 25 percentage points between his freshman and sophomore campaigns.
That the Raptors can develop him behind Valanciunas is even better for Poeltl. He gets to come along slowly on a half-court-rich playoff team, and Toronto has the option down the line of using Valanciunas' cap-friendly deal to anchor a blockbuster trade for a starry wing, knowing full well they might have his replacement on the roster.
Ben Simmons, LSU, PF: Boston Celtics (via Brooklyn Nets)
Is there any team better built to accommodate the vast, albeit unpolished, skill set of the 6'10" Ben Simmons than the Boston Celtics?
"Every time I see Simmons, I think he could be another Giannis [Antetokounmpo]," one NBA general manager told ESPN.com's Chad Ford. "I think they bring a very similar skill set to the game."
Allow me to rephrase: Is there any NBA team that could serve as a more successful springboard for the next Giannis Antetokounmpo than the Celtics?
Head coach Brad Stevens has crafted a fringe Eastern Conference contender around tweeners like Jae Crowder, Jared Sullinger and Evan Turner. Simmons presents the same problematic upside. He is tall enough to play the 4 and can distribute the ball like a point guard, but he hasn't showcased a dependable outside touch. He attempted just three triples all season at LSU, making one, and shot under 33 percent on two-point jumpers.
The Celtics get enough spacing up front from Kelly Olynyk and Sullinger (restricted free agent) to use Simmons at the 4 without bogging down the offense. Their success-by-committee attack, which features Marcus Smart and Isaiah Thomas while giving ball-handling freedom to Avery Bradley and Turner, will allow them to tinker with Simmons as a point forward.
Though a more accurate jumper cannot be assumed, Simmons can carve out a positional path similar to Sullinger. The Celtics use him at center and bank on their perimeter pests anchoring the defense during that time. Simmons, who is one inch taller than Sullinger, could be used in the same way—in Boston, only—as his jumper develops.
Yes, in many ways, Simmons is a mess of talent. But no other player over the last two decades has posted his benchmarks of 19 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two steals per game. He is best served playing for a team that will know how to properly use, and then capitalize on, his mixed bag of tricks.
Boston is that team.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, Sports-Reference.com/cbb/ and NBA.com and accurate leading into games on March 18. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
