UFC Fight Night 85 Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
The UFC is back! After two long weeks, the page has officially been turned on Conor McGregor's loss to Nate Diaz, and a new chapter focuses on a former UFC heavyweight champ and one of the biggest fan favorites in recent years.
UFC Fight Night 85 features Frank Mir facing off with the Super Samoan, Mark Hunt. Both men have endured massive amounts of damage over the years but have somehow remained relevant, high-level fighters even at a combined age of 77.
Past that main event, the card features a number of Australian talents for the Brisbane crowd to rally behind. Some are interesting, such as Jake Matthews and Hector Lombard. Others...not so much.
As per usual, the Bleacher Report MMA predictions team is here to bring you its picks for the main card. Read on to check them over and feel free to make your own predictions in the comments.
2016 Standings
1 of 7
UFC 196 wasn't a great event for Conor McGregor, and it wasn't great for our staff either. While yours truly went 3-2 on picks (decent but not great), Scott Harris went 1-4, and everyone else went 2-3. Fight Night 85 could be the same with the staff unanimous, or close to unanimous, on many of the fights.
Either way, things are much more competitive this year than last, when I simply demolished the opposition. The full standings are as follows:
- Sydnie Jones (22-12)
- Craig Amos (20-14)
- Nathan McCarter (20-14)
- Steven Rondina (20-14)
- Scott Harris (17-17)
Bec Rawlings vs. Seohee Ham
2 of 7
Amos
Bec Rawlings (5'6", 115 lbs) is the larger fighter and carries a two-inch reach advantage. If she uses those attributes to her advantage, she can pull off the upset. If Seohee Ham (5'2", 115 lbs) can negate the difference with superior speed and technique, which is the belief here, she'll get the W.
Ham, unanimous decision
McCarter
If Rawlings is going to win this fight, she has to make it ugly and boring. She will have to put Ham's back on the fence and canvas while grinding out a decision. I don't think she's good enough, period.
Ham is undersized for the division, but her incredible hand speed and movement will create a lot of problems for Rawlings. A similar matchup in Invicta FC with Mizuki Inoue showed Rawlings' shortcomings. I'm expecting a similar result.
Ham, unanimous decision
Harris
Rawlings is not unlike Paige VanZant: more aggression and toughness than technical skill. Ham will expose that and show that she and her kickboxing are a force to be reckoned with.
Ham, TKO, Rd. 2
Jones
Ham's superior range control will keep her out of reach of Rawlings' clunky, frenzied pace. Rawlings does have a height advantage on Ham, who's already short for a strawweight, but she also has a lot more experience under her belt and a higher fight IQ. Staying away from Rawlings means...
Ham, unanimous decision
Rondina
There's absolutely no question about who the better fighter is here. Ham is the smarter, craftier, more technical fighter. No doubt about it. The only way Rawlings can overcome that is with her superior size and athleticism, but I doubt that will be enough.
Ham, unanimous decision
James Te Huna vs. Steve Bosse
3 of 7
Amos
James Te Huna has posted atrocious results lately, but a slugfest with Steve Bosse might bring out the best in him. He's rarely the more well-rounded fighter, but he has options in this bout, so I like his odds. I foresee his taking Bosse to the mat and beating him up there.
Te Huna, TKO, Rd. 2
McCarter
Originally, I looked at this fight and scoffed. I was prepared to just go with Te Huna because Bosse is a former hockey player who lacks complete MMA skills. That is why Thiago Santos flattened him in under a minute.
But Te Huna has taken quite a bit of punishment as of late, and he doesn't hold up to the damage he once could. Bosse has the power to shut off his lights. I'm conflicted, but I'll stick with Te Huna. He has more experience and tools to win this fight.
Te Huna, submission, Rd. 1
Harris
Bosse is going to lure himself right into the lion's mouth if he wants to bang with James Te Huna. Three losses and two years away with injuries have taken a lot of heat out of Te Huna's career, but he'll have enough to get right against Bosse.
Te Huna, TKO, Rd. 1
Jones
Te Huna is coming in off a 21-month hiatus on a three-fight losing streak, while Bosse lost his UFC debut in June 2015 by head-kick knockout in 29 seconds. Not promising for either, but Te Huna's far greater experience will lead him to an easy win over Bosse—even if Bosse has been training with Tristar.
Te Huna, KO, Rd. 1
Rondina
My gut says Bosse, but my head is saying Te Huna's savvy enough to big-brother the Canadian. I'll go with Te Huna now and get ready to kick myself about it later.
Te Huna, submission, Rd. 2
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Dan Kelly vs. Antonio Carlos Junior
4 of 7
Amos
This is a bad matchup for Dan Kelly, who is going to run into some serious issues on the mat. He might be able to avoid the submission, but he isn't winning the fight.
Antonio Carlos Junior, submission, Rd. 3
McCarter
Kelly has exceeded all expectations in his UFC career. The fact he is still going is really a testament to that fact. This is just not a good matchup for him.
At 38, Kelly's body is shot from years upon years of judo. He doesn't have the explosiveness or athleticism he once did, and against Carlos Junior, that will result in his getting pummeled. Carlos Junior will pick up his first TKO victory after battering Kelly for far too long.
Carlos Junior, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris
The Australian is a solid grinder, but Carlos Junior is too dynamic to keep under wraps, particularly on the feet. Just spare me your hamburger jokes, and I'll do the same.
Carlos Junior, unanimous decision
Jones
This fight has the potential to be fun. Maybe. Kelly and Carlos Junior are both great grapplers. There's also a 12-year age difference, and Kelly's recent wins have been against some fairly underwhelming competition. We haven't seen much from Carlos Junior, but I've seen enough to pick him over Kelly.
Carlos Junior, submission, Rd. 3
Rondina
Not much else to say. Carlos Junior has this unless he gets tired and clinched for 10 minutes.
Carlos Junior, unanimous decision
Jake Matthews vs. Johnny Case
5 of 7
Amos
This pair of talented young fighters should put on a good show. The betting odds I've seen suggest it is a tough one to call, and I share that sentiment. I'm going with Matthews partly because I've always been leaning that way and partly because of the potential for home-field judging.
Matthews, unanimous decision
McCarter
This is a dramatically underappreciated fight in the lightweight division. Two young bucks with good upside. Johnny Case has been more consistent, but I see more overall potential in Matthews. And I'll take his potential in front of a home crowd.
Matthews will be able to stymie the wrestling of Case, score points and pull away late for a unanimous decision.
Matthews, unanimous decision
Harris
The UFC certainly stacked the card with Australian fighters but didn't appear to do them many favors with the matchups.
According to Odds Shark, oddsmakers have this as a dead heat, and that's understandable. The 21-year-old Matthews has shown oodles of talent in a 3-1 UFC tenure. Fighting in his home country should be a tailwind. It won't be enough, though. Case's experience and full skill set will carry the day.
Case, unanimous decision
Jones
Not to knock Matthews, but it took him almost three rounds to stop Dashon Johnson, who came to the UFC with a record inflated by fast victories over cans. Or maybe that Johnson could hang in a UFC fight for nearly 14 minutes suggests he actually has some skill and talent. Either way, the 5'10" Case has more experience and a height advantage—two factors Matthews (5'9") can't, at this point, overcome.
Case, TKO, Rd. 3
Rondina
Both men have similar resumes, but I think Matthews has done just as much against stiffer competition. Add to that how he could get some hometown handiwork if things reach the judges...
Matthews, unanimous decision
Hector Lombard vs. Neil Magny
6 of 7
Amos
Despite posting consistent, positive results, Neil Magny has found it hard to gain a lot of notice in the UFC's welterweight division. Lombard is kind of the opposite. I guess that's a good thing for him, but it won't save him from a loss this weekend.
Magny, unanimous decision
McCarter
Magny has steadily improved, and this could be the fight where he makes believers of us all. I'm not ready to go that far just yet.
Lombard is a bad matchup for him. A much better grappler with huge power. He'll wear Magny out in the first round while beating him up, and in the second, Magny won't be able to take any more. Lombard keeps a clean slate on his Australian MMA record.
Lombard, TKO, Rd. 2
Harris
It would be easy to call the Lombard knockout and move on with life. Problem is, I don't think it will happen. Magny is an extremely intelligent fighter. He gets better every fight and started pretty darn well. You don't go 9-1 in two years in the UFC by accident. Magny uses his reach and clinch to stifle the Cuban-Australian wrecking machine.
Magny, unanimous decision
Jones
Lombard seems so huge compared to Magny—two welterweights with a six-inch height difference. Lombard is huge horizontally; Magny is huge vertically. Magny was last paired up with Kelvin Gastelum, so he has some experience stymieing a ripped 5'9" grappler. A dozen of Lombard's 38 fights have gone to decision, and Magny can hold him off long enough to have this one go that way as well.
Magny, unanimous decision
Rondina
I still hold Lombard in very high regard. He was one of MMA's pound-for-pound hardest hitters and was a good enough grappler to dominate the likes of Jake Shields. Magny should have this, though. He has the well-rounded skills and smarts to keep Lombard at a manageable range and wear him down en route to the scorecards.
Magny, unanimous decision
Mark Hunt vs. Frank Mir
7 of 7
Amos
Though Mir has significantly grown as a striker and Hunt is no longer a completely lost cause on the mat, this remains a quintessential striker vs. grappler bout. Mir's edge on the mat is far greater than Hunt's edge on the feet, but it'll be more difficult for him to get the action where he wants it to go. Hunt will keep the action upright and eventually earn the stoppage.
Hunt, TKO, Rd. 3
McCarter
I have said "if the fight hits the ground, it's over" a lot for Mark Hunt's fights, and then he proves me wrong against the likes of Fabricio Werdum. But I'll still say it again. If the fight hits the ground, it's over. But I don't believe it will hit the canvas. Hunt slips in a crushing left hand as Mir enters for a shot. Walkaway KO.
Hunt, KO, Rd. 1
Harris
Their combined age is 77, but the thinness of the heavyweight division means either one could get a title shot if he puts even a modest streak together. Despite the specialist tags both these men carry, the 41-year-old Hunt can grapple and the 36-year-old Mir can strike. Mir is a smart fighter and won't try to bang with the scariest banger in the UFC. He'll keep his chin out of the danger zone and tire out the big guy with clinch work and top control. Sorry, Australia.
Mir, unanimous decision
Jones
Heavyweight is always a crapshoot, and both fighters seem unlikely to reclaim much of their former glory at this stage. We last saw Mir plod his way to a decision loss to Andrei Arlovski, while Hunt stopped Antonio Silva in the first round in November. Neither of their recent records have been very impressive, but on the other hand, their losses have been to some excellent fighters. Even though Hunt's chin isn't what it once was, Mir doesn't have enough to stop him and won't be able to keep him down long enough to submit him.
Hunt, KO, Rd. 2
Rondina
Frank Mir is at his best on the ground, right? Guess how many takedowns he has completed in the 12 fights since losing the interim UFC heavyweight title to Brock Lesnar at UFC 100? Nine. And six of those were in his 2011 fight against Roy Nelson. Mir is going to be forced to contend with Hunt standing for a prolonged period of time, and that's not an ideal place for him.
Hunt, unanimous decision
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