NCAA Bracket 2016: Picks, Updated Odds Ahead of Friday's 1st-Round Schedule

Thursday opened the NCAA tournament with little madness, trading the event's typical early excitement for mundanity.

A pair of No. 12 seeds provided the day's top moments. Alongside Yale's 79-75 upset over Baylor, Arkansas-Little Rock rallied from a double-digit deficit to overcome Purdue in two overtimes.

Aside from those surprises, most brackets should remain clean heading into Friday's action. No other grand upsets ruled the day—anyone caught off guard by No. 11 Wichita State silencing Arizona forgot to consult KenPom.com. 

Don't get lulled into a false sense of security. Friday offers another jammed slate to wreak havoc. Among the 16 scheduled showdowns, the following three are especially tough to peg.

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Check out Bleacher Report's live updating bracket to track your picks along the road to the Final Four. 

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Dayton (-1) vs. Syracuse

No team received an at-large bid with more losses than Syracuse's 13, but it's OK since some of those losses happened without an old man in a suit watching on the bench. Whether or not their inclusion is justified, the Orange will now appear in one of Friday's most tightly-contested toss-up games.

No. 7 Dayton, who upset Syracuse two years ago, holds a one-point edge against the No. 10 seed. FiveThirtyEight's projection model gives the Flyers a 52 percent chance of advancing. KenPom.com, however, ranks Syracuse No. 44 and Dayton No. 58.

It's the age-old question: Is a solid school from an elite conference better than a big fish running a small-conference pond?

Either way, Syracuse no longer flexes its muscles as a hulking favorite. Per Syracuse Basketball's official Twitter page, head coach Jim Boeheim wouldn't give his Atlantic 10 opponents any bulletin-board material:

Two years ago, Syracuse didn't drain a single three-pointer during Dayton's 55-53 upset. That must change this year, as it rates No. 226 in field-goal percentage (47.7) but No. 118 in three-point efficiency (36.1) while sinking 8.75 shots per game from behind the arc.

All the talk of the Orange improving with Boeheim on the bench conveniently ignores them losing five of their last six games, all against ACC competition. The Flyers advance in a nail-biter, giving them three straight years with at least one NCAA tournament victory.

Prediction: Dayton 67, Syracuse 65

California (-4.5) vs. Hawaii

Every March Madness contains trendy upset picks. After winning 11 of its last 13 games to claim the Big West crown, No. 13 seed Hawaii carries the torch this season.

Several previews will cite Hawaii's looming 2017 postseason ban as fuel for its late surge and motivation to maximize this year's appearance. So, California and every other team won't try because there's always next year? Don't buy into the lazy storyline. 

President Barack Obama picked Hawaii to win, though! Cool, but that might have something to do with him being born there. Go ahead and also follow Tom Brady's completely objective projection of Michigan winning it all.

There is, however, one significant reason to roll with the Warriors. The Golden Bears suffered an untimely blow when Tyrone Wallace fractured a bone in his right hand during Wednesday's practice. According to CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein, the team's leading scorer will miss the entire tournament:

The injury illuminated Hawaii's status as a savvy pick, but Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg cautioned against the reactionary move:

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Bracket tip: A whole lot of people are going to pick Hawaii over Cal because of the Tyrone Wallace news. Don't be one of them.

— Jeff Eisenberg (@JeffEisenberg) March 17, 2016"

FiveThirtyEight still gives California an 83 percent win probability. While the offense takes a hit without Wallace, four other players registered over 10 points per game this season. Per Sports-Reference.com, all of them netted superior true-shooting percentages: 

Player	PPG	TS%
Tyrone Wallace	15.3	.514
Jaylen Brown	15.0	.521
Jordan Mathews	13.2	.586
Ivan Rabb	12.5	.641
Jabari Bird	10.4	.586

Hawaii, ranked No. 108 in adjusted offensive efficiency, will still struggle to keep up against California's 14th-ranked defense, per KenPom.com. Besides, where's the fun in picking an underdog everyone else is backing? 

Prediction: California 75, Hawaii 69

Oregon State vs. VCU (-4)

Virginia Commonwealth is the lower seed but not the underdog. The Rams are four-point favorites to eliminate the Oregon State Rams. FiveThirtyEight agrees, crediting the No. 10 seed with a whopping 73 percent win probability. 

The selection committee must have looked at Oregon State's No. 29 RPI when giving the Beavers a No. 7 seed over VCU (37 in RPI). KenPom.com paints a different picture, ranking VCU No. 38 and Oregon State No. 59. VCU's plus-10.6 scoring margin also hovers far above Oregon State's plus-2.1.

Per Rothstein, the Beavers will probably also play without forward Tres Tinkle, who recorded 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per game during his freshman campaign:

Behind an impressive press defense, the Rams have generated the nation's sixth-most turnovers this year, but the Beavers only surrender 11.4 giveaways per contest. Offsetting the Rams' modified Havoc defense could vindicate the selection committee's seeding choices, but the Beavers can't afford any hiccups.

Most bracket contestants are simply pretending the seeds are reversed, siding with VCU's tenacious defense and superior 2015-16 portfolio over Oregon State. The numbers, especially with Tinkle sidelined, support that plan. 

Prediction: VCU 74, Oregon State 66

Note: All odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of Friday morning.