Every Projected NBA Lottery Team's Top-5 Big Board Entering March Madness
There's only one Ben Simmons, and he's not going to stick around long enough to become the top target of every NBA lottery team. We're interested in realistic possibilities here, not pipe dreams, one-in-a-million shots or alternate realties.
For each squad currently sitting outside the playoff picture, listed here in alphabetical order, it's time to start thinking about draft-day decisions. A substantial portion of the current season may remain, but it's 2016-17 that offers hope of greater fortune.
Weighing team needs—generated by current holes in the lineups, possible free-agent departures and everything else imaginable—with the talent of the players available, we're looking at the best choices for each of those 14 teams.
But again, they have to be realistic. Much as the Detroit Pistons might love to add Simmons or Brandon Ingram, that just isn't going to happen unless they beat the odds in a big way during the lottery.
Brooklyn Nets
1 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: None
Thanks to their fateful 2013 trade with the Boston Celtics, the Brooklyn Nets have to hand over their first-round pick this offseason. Even if they win the lottery and momentarily grow excited about the prospect of adding a superstar, they must still convey the selection.
With no protections, there's no way to make a choice here unless the Nets trade one of their few assets for a pick once the 2015-16 campaign ends.
As for Boston, it still has a strong-enough roster to adopt the best-player-available strategy even though Evan Turner, Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller are coming off the books this summer. Unless the Nets do win the lottery, look for them to use the projected No. 4 pick on Dragan Bender or Jakob Poeltl, seeking to upgrade the frontcourt with a fresh face.
Denver Nuggets
2 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 8 (swap with New York Knicks), No. 16 (from Houston Rockets), No. 18 (from Portland Trail Blazers)
| 1 | Jaylen Brown | SF | California |
| 2 | Jamal Murray | PG/SG | Kentucky |
| 3 | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
| 4 | Dragan Bender | PF | International |
| 5 | Ivan Rabb | PF | California |
The Denver Nuggets are playing with house money. General manager Tim Connelly has done a fantastic job stockpiling assets—both young players and draft picks—during his tenure in the Mile High City, and the result is a roster already brimming over with potential.
The Nuggets don't need to look for a true point guard (Emmanuel Mudiay) or a legitimate center (Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic), but everything else is fair game. Even so, the team's top pick will be fighting for minutes with Gary Harris, Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Joffrey Lauvergne on this crowded depth chart.
Landing a legitimate superstar such as Jaylen Brown or Jamal Murray would be huge for the Nuggets' overall upside, but it's more likely they'll end up looking a little deeper on their big board. Even then, imagine the incumbent talent joined by the scoring prowess of Buddy Hield or the untapped upside of Dragan Bender, who's played just 11.6 minutes per game for Maccabai Tel Aviv this season, per RealGM.com.
Of course, consolidation is also a serious possibility here. The Nuggets certainly don't need to add three first-round picks to the current roster, so packaging them for a loftier selection or an established star is a reasonable course of action.
Detroit Pistons
3 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 14
| 1 | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
| 2 | Skal Labissiere | PF/C | Kentucky |
| 3 | Ivan Rabb | PF | California |
| 4 | Domantas Sabonis | PF | Gonzaga |
| 5 | Brice Johnson | PF | North Carolina |
The Detroit Pistons are still looking to fill in the gaps around Andre Drummond, ideally by adding players who can fit into head coach Stan Van Gundy's one-in, four-out stylings. Drafting a point guard is a no-go with Reggie Jackson aboard, but wings and forwards are certainly coveted in the Motor City.
If he's somehow still around, Oklahoma's Buddy Hield would be the ideal fit.
Averaging 25 points for the Sooners while shooting 49.6 percent from the field, 46.4 percent from beyond the arc and 89.5 percent at the charity stripe, he's shown he can handle a substantial scoring load. Most importantly, he could help take away the incentive to feed Drummond in the post, where the big man has ranked in just the 30.9 percentile, per NBA.com's SportVU data.
The Pistons also happen to fall in the part of the draft populated by an abundance of power forwards.
So if Hield is off the board, that's the natural place to turn. Hoping for Skal Labissiere or Ivan Rabb is perfectly valid, but Detroit shouldn't be disappointed if it's left looking at Domantas Sabonis, Brice Johnson or even Henry Ellenson, whose stretchiness would make him one heck of a consolation prize.
Los Angeles Lakers
4 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 2
| 1 | Ben Simmons | SF | LSU |
| 2 | Brandon Ingram | SF | Duke |
| 3 | Jaylen Brown | SF | California |
| 4 | Dragan Bender | PF | International |
| 5 | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
Unfortunately for the Los Angeles Lakers, there's still a little concern they could lose their first-round pick to the Philadelphia 76ers. It's only protected for the top three slots, and while the Lakers still have the second-worst record in the NBA, they've been playing better lately and could see an increased chance of teams jumping past them during the lottery.
But if they do hold onto a top-three selection—ideally with at least the projected No. 2 spot—the choices aren't particularly difficult. Los Angeles will need star power and scoring ability after Kobe Bryant retires, ideally coming at a guard position not currently filled by D'Angelo Russell or Jordan Clarkson.
Each of the three premier prospects in this year's class are small forwards, so that works perfectly.
"He's 19. He has the chance to be a triple-double machine," an anonymous scout recently told ESPN.com's Chad Ford about LSU's Ben Simmons. "He's one of the best passing big men I've ever seen. He has holes in his game. But he's stuck on an immature team. He isn't used the right way. His team isn't very good. I'd get frustrated, too. He's going to be fine."
Despite growing concerns about his jumper and the rise of Brandon Ingram, Simmons should be the clear-cut No. 1 option for the Lakers. They can afford to work through his growing pains, and his lack of spacing ability isn't as detrimental on a squad already boasting a few shooters.
It's only if he's off the board that they should turn to Ingram and his immense offensive ability. And it's only if both are gone that they should look at Jaylen Brown.
Milwaukee Bucks
5 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 11
| 1 | Jamal Murray | PG/SG | Kentucky |
| 2 | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
| 3 | Demetrius Jackson | PG | Notre Dame |
| 4 | Dejounte Murray | PG | Washington |
| 5 | Skal Labissiere | PF/C | Kentucky |
The Giannis Antetokounmpo experiment is working wonders, turning the young Greek forward into a triple-double machine while pushing the Milwaukee Bucks back toward respectability. But it was only necessary because Michael Carter-Williams' production has been so terrible.
During his first full season with the Bucks, the former Rookie of the Year is averaging 11.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.2 assists, but his utter inability to connect from three-point range and overall lack of scoring acumen has held Milwaukee back.
Replacing him—or at least adding another capable guard—has to be the top priority with the No. 11 pick.
It's a weird spot to be looking for a backcourt member this year, as Jamal Murray and Buddy Hield will most likely be off the board by the time Milwaukee is on the clock. If either is available, the Bucks shouldn't hesitate. But it won't be a bad idea to do the due diligence on other prospects.
Demetrius Jackson and Dejounte Murray are the next best options at the 1, with the former pulling ahead by virtue of his shooting ability. Murray has knocked down just 29.8 percent of his triples as a freshman for Washington, while Jackson has helped Notre Dame from the outside for years.
Don't be fooled by his 32.4 three-point percentage this season, as he connected at 42.9 and 41.7 percent clips during his sophomore and freshman go-rounds.
Minnesota Timberwolves
6 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 5
| 1 | Jaylen Brown | SF | California |
| 2 | Kris Dunn | PG | Providence |
| 3 | Jamal Murray | PG/SG | Kentucky |
| 4 | Dragan Bender | PF | International |
| 5 | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
What exactly do the Minnesota Timberwolves need?
With Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine, they have capable guards at each backcourt position. That's doubly true if Tyus Jones develops or Andrew Wiggins sticks at shooting guard instead of small forward. Throw in Shabazz Muhammad, Adreian Payne, Gorgui Dieng and Karl-Anthony Towns, and you have potential at each slot in a traditional lineup.
The Wolves can fully adopt the best-player-available strategy, hoping teams above them draft for need rather than sheer talent. It's impossible Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram falls all the way to No. 5, but what if Jaylen Brown does? Minnesota could certainly make use of his two-way potential, especially given that it comes in a physical package with nearly everything an NBA team could desire.
Even if he's gone as well, the Wolves surely can't complain about shoring up the backcourt with a high-upside guard such as Kris Dunn or Jamal Murray. Both could learn from Rubio, eventually taking over for this team on the rise.
Plus, anyone is going to look good next to Towns next year.
New Orleans Pelicans
7 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 6
| 1 | Kris Dunn | PG | Providence |
| 2 | Jamal Murray | PG/SG | Kentucky |
| 3 | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
| 4 | Jakokb Poeltl | C | Utah |
| 5 | Ivan Rabb | PF | California |
Which New Orleans Pelicans are keepers? Anthony Davis is an obvious answer, but that's about where it ends.
Jrue Holiday only has one year remaining on his current deal and needs to stay healthy before he can be viewed as a franchise cornerstone. And with Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson both hitting free agency this summer, those two and Tyreke Evans (who also has just one year remaining) could be the only building blocks.
NOLA desperately needs talent before it wastes too many years of Davis', and it can come at literally any position. The Pelicans can shift their future MVP candidate to either power forward or center, and Holiday's presence shouldn't prevent them from taking Kris Dunn if he somehow falls to No. 6.
It's not just defense that's needed. It's not just offense. It's not just guards. It's not just forwards.
It's everything.
New York Knicks
8 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: None
No matter what, the New York Knicks will not have a pick in the first round of the 2016 NBA draft unless they strike a deal just prior to the selection process. After potentially swapping rights with the Denver Nuggets, they have to convey the least favorable of those two first-round picks to the Toronto Raptors in unprotected fashion.
The Knicks also owe their second-round selection to the Houston Rockets, so they'll be playing the part of spectator throughout June 23.
As for the Raptors, expect them to target the rich power forward market. Upgrading from Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola is a must for the Canadian representatives trying to make the proverbial next step, and they could easily go after a rebounding stud such as Brice Johnson or a floor-spacing 4 such as Henry Ellenson.
Orlando Magic
9 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 10
| 1 | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
| 2 | Skal Labissiere | PF/C | Kentucky |
| 3 | Ivan Rabb | PF | California |
| 4 | Domantas Sabonis | PF | Gonzaga |
| 5 | Henry Ellenson | PF/C | Marquette |
Count the Orlando Magic as another one of those teams overflowing with young talent. Even after trading Tobias Harris to the Detroit Pistons, they boast the services of Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Evan Fournier, Mario Hezonja, Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic.
Help at any one position isn't a draft-altering priority. If the Magic do go for need, they'll look to wing players and power forwards who either boast immense upside or can stretch the court. But they're free to select a player who unexpectedly drops during the proceedings.
Finding a go-to scorer such as Buddy Hield would be huge, but this draft doesn't feature too many wings that figure to go around No. 10. That's why this big board is largely composed of power forwards who can either play center in a smaller lineup or knock down perimeter jumpers—something Vucevic doesn't do well and Gordon has only shown in spurts.
The diversity of options should keep general manager Rob Hennigan from breaking a sweat. Even if the high-ceiling 4s such as Skal Labissiere and Ivan Rabb are off the board, Domantas Sabonis' terrific footwork and 15-foot jumper would make him a nice complement to Gordon. So too would Henry Ellenson's shooting, as the Marquette big man has struggled to make triples during his freshman campaign but has shown off a nice mid-range jumper and a strong stroke from the charity stripe.
Philadelphia 76ers
10 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 1, No. 22 (from Miami Heat), No. 26 (from Oklahoma City Thunder)
| 1 | Brandon Ingram | SF | Duke |
| 2 | Ben Simmons | SF | LSU |
| 3 | Jaylen Brown | SF | California |
| 4 | Kris Dunn | PG | Providence |
| 5 | Jamal Murray | PG/SG | Kentucky |
Fortunately for the Philadelphia 76ers, we don't have to worry about anything that happens beyond No. 2 on the big board. They rather easily have the NBA's worst record, and it's highly unlikely more than one team will jump past them during the lottery.
So, why Brandon Ingram over Ben Simmons?
Even if you think Simmons is the better prospect—and yours truly does—it's undeniable that his jumper is broken and hasn't improved throughout his freshman season. Even at the end of the year, he was passing open jumpers to attack the basket or make difficult—often unnecessarily flashy—passes to teammates with defenders in their jerseys.
Meanwhile, Ingram knocked down 41.3 percent of his triples for Duke while taking 5.4 attempts per game.
If the Sixers are going to continue trying to make the Nerlens Noel-Jahlil Okafor combination work, they desperately need players who can space the court. It's far easier to find a replacement-level point guard who can initiate offense (see: Smith, Ish) than a stud wing who can lead the team in scoring while drawing defensive attention away from the bigs.
Plus, Philadelphia should have two more picks in the first round, and it can easily use those to address other needs. Just imagine if it was able to grab Duke's Grayson Allen at No. 22 and Kentucky's Tyler Ulis at No. 26.
All of a sudden, you're looking at a starting five of Ulis, Allen, Ingram, Noel and Okafor in 2016-17, with Dario Saric potentially filling the sixth man role. Yes, please.
Phoenix Suns
11 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 3, No. 12 (from Washington Wizards), from No. 27 (from Cleveland Cavaliers)
| 1 | Ben Simmons | SF | LSU |
| 2 | Brandon Ingram | SF | Duke |
| 3 | Jaylen Brown | SF | California |
| 4 | Dragan Bender | PF | International |
| 5 | Jakob Poeltl | C | Utah |
While Dragan Bender would be a strong fit in the desert, the Phoenix Suns can wait until No. 12 to address their hole at power forward. Finding a stud wing is the top priority, and it's quite fortuitous that they're likely to see one of three clear-cut first-tier prospects on the board.
The Suns don't need to worry much at at No. 3. If the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers both get their top choices—Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons, respectively—that leaves Jaylen Brown to Phoenix. If one of the other two squads makes a surprising choice, it's not like the Suns would complain about adding Simmons or Ingram into the mix.
Simmons' playmaking ability and triple-double habits would allow him to serve as an uber-glue guy for this franchise, making just about any combination of guards and bigs feasible. Ingram's shooting and shot-creating abilities would take pressure off Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, while Brown's athleticism would make him awfully dangerous next to Bledsoe in transition.
If this is the reward for a putrid season filled with drama and losing, the Suns should take it and run.
Sacramento Kings
12 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 7
| 1 | Kris Dunn | PG | Providence |
| 2 | Jamal Murray | PG/SG | Kentucky |
| 3 | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
| 4 | Denzel Valentine | SG/SF | Michigan State |
| 5 | Demetrius Jackson | PG | Notre Dame |
Even though Rajon Rondo has been a welcome addition to the Sacramento Kings, he's playing on a one-year deal and will have plenty of suitors this offseason. Already, we've seen Carmelo Anthony making a pitch to the pass-first point guard on behalf of the New York Knicks.
With Rudy Gay, DeMarcus Cousins and Willie Cauley-Stein still in the fold, the Kings must look to either replace Rondo or shore up the wings with a high-upside prospect. And if they remain at No. 7, they're in prime position to do exactly that.
First up is Kris Dunn, who Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman spoke rather well of while giving a best-case scenario in February:
"In terms of natural talent and realistic potential improvement, Dunn should have the chance to develop into one of the top 15 point guards in the league.
He's already physically superior to most of them. Plus, his defense alone should hold value, regardless of how well his offensive game develops.
But if he continues to make strides as a shooter and eventually manages to operate with better control, Dunn can develop into a 15- to 20-point scorer and one of the top assist men in the league.
"
Dunn could very well be off the board a few selections before the Kings are on the clock, but the guard options won't dry up that fast. Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield should be available at No. 7.
Plus, it's not like reaching for Denzel Valentine is a bad option, especially with my total points added metric (TPA, which is explained in full here) showing that he was rather easily the NCAA's best player this season.
Utah Jazz
13 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: No. 13
| 1 | Skal Labissiere | PF/C | Kentucky |
| 2 | Henry Ellenson | PF | Marquette |
| 3 | Domantas Sabonis | PF | Gonzaga |
| 4 | Denzel Valentine | SG/SF | Michigan State |
| 5 | Ivan Rabb | PF | California |
You shouldn't be surprised if the Utah Jazz attempt to package this pick and a current player for the ability to land a potential superstar. This team, even if it's currently a lottery squad, doesn't need to add many more pieces to the homegrown roster.
At point guard, the Jazz have Dante Exum returning from his torn ACL in 2016-17, and it appears as if Shelvin Mack could be a keeper used to increase the backcourt depth. Alec Burks and Rodney Hood still operate on the wings, while Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert make for a devastating big man duo. With Trey Lyles developing, there's even incumbent frontcourt depth.
But if the Jazz don't make a trade, they'll have to pick someone. And even given Lyles' enduring presence, it's worth taking a shot on another power forward to replace Trevor Booker, whose contract expires at the end of the year.
Skal Labissiere has the upside necessary to tempt the Jazz, despite underwhelming during what figures to be his one and only season with the Kentucky Wildcats. If his jumper develops into a deadly weapon, he could complement both Favors and Gobert nicely.
The same is true for Henry Ellenson and Domantas Sabonis, both of whom have helped stretch the floor for their college squads. Think of them as insurance policies in case Lyles doesn't pan out, even if the former Wildcat has strutted his stuff in a few brief spurts as a rookie.
In this range, Denzel Valentine is the only wing who should make them deviate from this strategy. Reaching for Malik Beasley or Grayson Allen is just a bit too aggressive at the tail end of the lottery.
Washington Wizards
14 of 14
Projected Draft Picks: None
Let's check in on Markieff Morris.
Since arriving in the nation's capital, the formerly disgruntled power forward has averaged 9.6 points and 5.8 rebounds while shooting 42.5 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from downtown. His player efficiency rating stands at a below-average 11.2, and his box plus/minus shows that his solid defense hasn't been enough to cancel out his team-damaging offensive woes.
Remember, the Washington Wizards gave up a first-round pick for Morris at the trade deadline and only attached a top-nine protection to it. Thanks to their ill-advised push for the playoffs, one that still has them sitting 2.5 games behind the No. 8 Chicago Bulls, they'll be conveying that pick with no reward for their efforts.
Whoops.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter:@fromal09.
All stats, unless otherwise indicated, are from Basketball-Reference.com or Adam's own databases and accurate through games played on March 14.
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