Mark Hunt vs. Frank Mir: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC Fight Night 85 is headlined by a crucial showdown in the UFC's heavyweight division.
No. 9-ranked heavyweight contender Mark Hunt (11-10-1) will stand opposite No. 10-ranked Frank Mir (18-10) on Saturday in Australia at 10 p.m. ET.
Hunt is a former title challenger, and Mir is a former champion. Both are looking for another run at gold in the top-heavy, and aging, UFC heavyweight division. This is a chance for them to win a main event on television and state their case.
Hunt is coming off a November victory against Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva, and Mir is returning from a decision loss to Andrei Arlovski at UFC 191. The result may end the title hopes for the loser and send him out of the Top 10 for good.
Who can establish himself once again as a contender? Where do the advantages lie for each fighter? Let's take a look.
Here is your head-to-toe breakdown of UFC Fight Night 85's main event.
Striking
1 of 5
The start of the obvious edges begins in the stand-up, and it is all Hunt.
Mir is a much-improved striker, and he has serious power in his hands. Ask Todd Duffee what it's like to get hit flush by his lunchbox-like fist. If Mir can land similarly on Hunt, or any heavyweight for that matter, it will be a knockout.
Unfortunately for Mir, Hunt doesn't overextend nonsensically like Duffee. He is a skilled and methodical striker.
All of the FightMetric numbers point to Hunt, but no one should need those stats to back it up. These are two longtime veterans we know well. We know Hunt's strength is on the feet. He just needs Mir to engage in the striking battle this weekend.
Edge: Hunt
Grappling
2 of 5
Hunt had been a poor grappler throughout most of his MMA career, and the start of his UFC tenure continued to highlight his ineptness on the floor. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, he got competent.
Hunt has been able to survive not only grappling exchanges on the feet but also on the floor against some of the most stellar heavyweight grapplers in the UFC. Both Roy Nelson and Fabricio Werdum had him on the mat but failed to control him.
Regardless of his improvement, being against the fence or on the ground against Mir is not where Hunt will find success.
Mir will do just about anything, including pulling guard, to go to the mat. He knows where his bread is buttered.
Edge: Mir
Submissions
3 of 5
Mir is not just a skilled submission artist. He is arguably the best heavyweight submission fighter in MMA history.
There are two keys to his success: his wide array of submission options and his aggression.
Mir is active from both top and bottom positions. He is also active in the clinch. Mir is always seeking the fight-ending submission, and if he gets an appendage, he will snap it if he gets the opportunity. Mir is ruthless when it comes to getting the tap.
Hunt has shown the ability to survive in recent fights, but he hasn't fought someone as active as Mir in this department. If the Super Samoan plays on the ground, it could be a quick evening.
Edge: Mir
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
X-Factors
4 of 5
Hunt's X-Factor: Escaping Mir's Grasp
Mir will not stand at a distance all fight. He's too smart and knows how he has to win to rise up the rankings. Mir will look to close the distance against Hunt to either clinch or to take him down.
Hunt has to be able to get away.
If he is stuck on the cage, Hunt has to break free to circle away and create distance. If he is on the mat, he has to get up as quickly as possible. This isn't the matchup to test his ground work or get cute. Up and away at all times.
Mir's X-Factor: Timing
Hunt still has some of the sneaky-fastest hands in the game, and Mir has to get the timing down in order to mask his shots.
If Mir can change levels as Hunt is throwing, he can take him down effectively. And from there, the fight may be a foregone conclusion. If Mir cannot time the shots, Hunt will be able to see the takedown attempts coming and thwart them without issue.
Prediction
5 of 5
This is one of the truest striker vs. grappler matchups you will see in 2016.
As much as I know this is Mir's fight on the ground, I have a gut instinct that he will fail to get it there. And that means Hunt will have ample opportunity to clock Mir for a win in front of a friendly crowd in Australia.
Hunt will win before the first round ends.
Mir will time his entry wrong, and Hunt will send in a short left hand that connects with Mir's jaw. It will be a clean, walk-away knockout. Hunt puts himself back in the title picture as the heavyweight division heats up heading toward the summer.
Prediction: Hunt defeats Mir by KO in the first round.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
