NCAA Tournament Bracket 2016: Region-by-Region Sleepers, Final Four Predictions
The field is set, and the waiting is nearly over until the 2016 NCAA tournament tips off.
The selection committee unveiled the brackets Sunday, with Kansas, North Carolina, Virginia and Oregon occupying the four No. 1 seeds:
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Below are forecasts for the favorite and top sleeper in each of the regions in this year's Big Dance.
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South Region
Sleeper: Iowa Hawkeyes
It's tempting to put the Arizona Wildcats here, but most will agree the selection committee under-seeded the Pac-12 giants. As a result, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Arizona reach the Elite Eight or even the Final Four.
Iowa is the bigger sleeper team in the South region. The Hawkeyes enter the tournament having lost six of their last eight games, with the last defeat coming to a 15-19 Illinois team.
It would be unfair to judge Iowa too harshly after its recent run, though. KenPom ranks the Hawkeyes 20th overall, and in Peter Jok and Jarrod Uthoff, they have two scorers capable of taking over a game.
Somewhat worrisome, though, is that Jok shot 38.8 percent from the field in the team's final five games before the tournament.
If Jok and Uthoff can find their shooting strokes, Iowa could be a dangerous team in the Big Dance.
Winner: Kansas Jayhawks
Labeling any team the favorite to win the 2016 NCAA tournament would be somewhat of a stretch, as this season has been historically unpredictable. Still, according to Odds Shark, Kansas has the best odds of winning (13-2) of any team in the field.
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver noted, however, the percentages remain firmly against the Jayhawks:
Kansas' 86-67 defeat to Oklahoma State is a bit of an outlier since three of the team's four losses came against teams inside the RPI top 25, per ESPN.com. The Jayhawks beat the teams one would expect them to beat—a 14-3 record against opponents in the top 50 of the RPI and a 21-3 mark against the top 100.
Frank Mason III, Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden Jr. will also be smarting after they exited the tourney in the round of 32 in each of the last two years.
"I would say a sense urgency and excitement," said Ellis on if he was feeling any pressure to make a deep run in the Big Dance in his senior year, per the school's official website. "I just want to make it my best; [being my] last go-around, I just want to do anything I can to win."
That feeling of desperation and the sting of disappointment from the previous two seasons should bring out the best in Kansas.
West Region
Sleeper: Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is a poor man's Virginia. The Bearcats are averaging 73.2 points a game, but they specialize in slowing the game down and suffocating their opponents. According to KenPom, Cincinnati ranks eighth in adjusted defense and 320th in adjusted tempo.
That bruising, physical style isn't easy on the eyes, but it is effective. The Bearcats defense helped them post the 23rd-best turnover margin (2.8) in the country.
Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg believes head coach Mick Cronin's Bearcats could cause fits for the West region's top seed:
The fact Cincinnati collectively shoots 42.8 percent from the field (233rd) is an obvious concern, but if the Bearcats can keep the pace of the game slow, they have a chance to knock anybody out of the West.
Winner: Oklahoma Sooners
There's little not to like about Oklahoma, and the Sooners are arguably the strongest team in the West despite being second behind Oregon.
Great players can take a team far in March, and that's exactly what Buddy Hield is. He's averaging 25.0 points a game on 49.6 percent shooting. The senior guard is also knocking down 46.4 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc.
Oklahoma's supporting cast might be the biggest factor in whether the Sooners can reach the Final Four, though. In the team's seven defeats, Jordan Woodard shot 43 percentage points worse (.375) than his shooting percentage in OU's 25 wins (.418), per Sports-Reference.com. Similarly, Isaiah Cousins shot 40.4 percent in defeat compared to 42.4 percent in victory.
The Sooners can survive a bad night from Hield as long as his teammates pick up the slack.
East Region
Sleeper: Stephen F. Austin
Stephen F. Austin excels in wreaking havoc on the defensive end of the floor. The Lumberjacks are allowing just 63.2 points a game, and they rank first in the country in opponent turnovers (18.63 per game).
Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde believes playing in the Southland Conference won't prove to be a major issue for Stephen F. Austin when it faces off against much stiffer opposition in the Big Dance:
"This is an excellent team that simply hasn't been tested in months, winning 20 straight and the last nine by a minimum of 21 points. Lack of Southland Conference competition could be a hindrance, but don't expect the Lumberjacks to be intimidated this week. Several players on this team were part of the SFA team that won its first-round game in 2014 and pushed Utah last year.
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The Lumberjacks' first-round matchup with West Virginia should make for a captivating affair, per FoxSports.com's Reid Forgrave:
Should Stephen F. Austin constantly force turnovers and throw the Mountaineers out of their rhythm, it could pull off the upset.
Winner: Kentucky Wildcats
On one hand, this season has been somewhat disappointing for Kentucky, considering it ranked second in the Associated Press' preseason poll. Then again, head coach John Calipari did a great job of getting the Wildcats back on track, leading them to an SEC tournament championship.
He's had a wealth of talent at his disposal, but Calipari's NCAA tourney record since arriving in 2009 is a beauty to behold:
| 2009-10 | 32-2 | No. 1 | Elite Eight |
| 2010-11 | 25-8 | No. 4 | Final Four |
| 2011-12 | 32-2 | No. 1 | National Champion |
| 2013-14 | 24-10 | No. 8 | Runner-Up |
| 2014-15 | 34-0 | No. 1 | Final Four |
There are plenty of reasons to doubt the Wildcats. They had some bad losses to Ohio State, Vanderbilt, Auburn and Tennessee throughout the regular season, and they rank 70th in adjusted defense, per KenPom. A matchup with North Carolina—one of the strongest teams in the tournament—could also beckon in the Sweet 16.
In Kentucky's defense, sophomore guard Tyler Ulis averaged 24.0 points and 5.0 assists a game during the SEC tournament, while freshman sensation Jamal Murray has put up 24.6 points a night throughout February and March. Fellow freshman Skal Labissiere could be a major X-factor for UK if he repeats that two-game stretch he enjoyed against Florida (11 points, eight rebounds) and LSU (18 points, nine rebounds, six blocks) to start the month.
Calipari has done less with more, and he has the pieces to make a deep run.
Midwest Region
Sleeper: Gonzaga Bulldogs
Going by ESPN.com's College Basketball Power Index (via ESPN Stats & Info), Gonzaga has the highest chance (33 percent) of any team seeded 10th or lower of reaching the Sweet 16.
The Bulldogs reached the Elite Eight for the first time under head coach Mark Few last year. In terms of talent, it wasn't the best Few has had in Spokane, but all the stars finally aligned for the school.
Kevin Pangos, Byron Wesley and Gary Bell Jr. are all gone from the 2014-15 squad. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis remain, though, and they will determine the Zags' fate over the next month.
In particular, Sabonis could play a major role for the Bulldogs should they clash with Utah in the round of 32. Neutralizing 7-footer Jakob Poeltl, the Utes' leading scorer, would go a long way toward securing passage to the Sweet 16.
Winner: Michigan State Spartans
Few teams are more efficient on the offensive end than Michigan State. The Spartans lead Division I in three-point percentage (43.4) and sit second in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.74), and KenPom ranks them second in adjusted offense behind Kentucky.
Senior guard Bryn Forbes is second in the nation in three-point shooting (48.4 percent), while fellow senior Denzel Valentine comes in at 13th (44.7 percent).
Also working in favor of Michigan State is a relatively easy draw. The Spartans wouldn't be seriously tested until the Sweet 16, and they should be able to handle any one of Gonzaga, Utah or Seton Hall. From there, the Spartans could face Virginia, which they dumped out of the last two NCAA tournaments.
History has proved not to bet against a Tom Izzo-coached team, and rarely has he had the luxury of this kind of talent at his disposal.
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