Final Four Predictions 2016: Picks, Best Odds to Win National Championship

Is it Thursday yet?

No? 

OK, what about now?

Not yet?

Well, this is upsetting.

The first weekend of the NCAA tournament remains the most exciting four days in sports. Regardless of the multitude of issues plaguing college basketball, there is no better spectacle than the first Thursday and Friday. It's nothing but wall-to-wall basketball, alcohol consumption, chicken wings and a surprisingly high number of 48-hour flu bugs and half days for "my child's doctor appointment."

But because you people are telling me that it is not yet Thursday, we should probably focus on things other than NCAA tournament games. Like, you know, filling out our NCAA tournament bracket in time for Thursday.

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With that in mind, let's take a quick look at some national championship odds and predict who will be making the Final Four trip in 2016.

Team	Odds
Kansas	+500
Michigan State	+500
North Carolina	+900
Kentucky	+1,000
Xavier	+1,200
Oklahoma	+1,200
Villanova	+1,400
Virginia	+1,400
Duke	+2,000
Maryland	+2,000
Wisconsin	+2,500
Iowa	+2,500
Miami	+2,800
Arizona	+3,300
California	+3,300
Indiana	+3,300
Iowa State	+3,300
Oregon	+3,300
West Virginia	+3,300
Wichita State	+3,300
Purdue	+4,000
Texas	+4,000
Connecticut	+5,000
Texas A&M	+6,600
Utah	+6,600

South Region: Kansas

Chris Covatta/Getty Images

The Jayhawks, widely regarded as the best team in the country, weren't given an easy bracket. The South Region includes five teams that were ranked in the Top 15 in the preseason. If the seeds hold to a reasonable degree, Kansas will almost certainly have to play two of those teams. Maryland-California looks like a second-round matchup for the ages, while Arizona has a real shot at making a deep run despite carrying a No. 6 seed.

Still, if there is anything resembling an elite team this season, it's Kansas. The Jayhawks are led by three upperclassmen, with leading scorer Perry Ellis looking to make one last deep run in his 63rd fourth season in Lawrence. Ellis averages 16.7 points and 5.9 rebounds per game and has even added a three-point shot to his repertoire. 

Add in the trio of Wayne Selden, Frank Mason III and Devonte' Graham, and Kansas' four leading scorers are each shooting 40 percent or better from three-point range. Brannen Greene is a low-usage player, but he's shooting 50 percent from deep. The Jayhawks can, if they wanted, play as close to five out as any team in the country.

As if that weren't enough, this is also one of the nation's truly elite defensive teams. Virginia is the only other team in the nation that boasts top-10 efficiency on both ends of the floor, and the Jayhawks have kept things rolling despite playing in the nation's toughest conference. Winning 14 straight games in this topsy-turvy season is impressive enough to make Kansas the clear national title favorite.

While the road will probably be a bit tougher than expected, Bill Self has his team playing too well to pick an upset.

West: Oklahoma

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Regardless of whether he hoists the Player of the Year trophy, there has been no bigger star in college basketball this season than Buddy Hield. The senior guard averaged 25.0 points and 5.6 rebounds per game during the regular season, emerging as a shot-making savant who will likely be an NBA lottery pick. Hield hit a career-high 46.4 percent from three-point range despite taking a career-high 8.6 shots per game and shot 49.6 percent overall.

Of course, Hield's most spectacular three of the season did not count. Down two to West Virginia in the Big 12 semifinal, Hield uncorked a double-clutch shot from midcourt that banked its way into the net—seemingly getting his shot off before time expired. But replay showed the ball was just on the edge of his fingertips as the red light shined on the backboard, perhaps costing Oklahoma a No. 1 seed in the process.

"It's in the moment. You can't really take away from that," Hield said, per Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports. "If anybody made that shot especially in college basketball this time of year [they'd celebrate too.] I thought I made it. Everybody in the gym thought I made it."

Luckily, Hield's career didn't end there. He'll get an opportunity for redemption in a bracket that's seemingly set up perfectly. Oregon is by far the weakest No. 1 seed—to the point it remains a surprise the Ducks were chosen over Michigan State. Their Pac-12 tournament run was impressive, but the conference is having a down season overall. 

Minus Oklahoma, the West is filled with teams that have near-fatal flaws. Texas A&M can have real problems scoring and played in a down SEC. Duke forgets that defense is a basketball concept. Baylor is only an inch better than the Blue Devils on that end. Texas wildly overachieved thanks to some brilliant coaching from Shaka Smart.

The path is set up here for Hield to lead Oklahoma to the program's first Final Four since 2002.

East: Kentucky

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Since arriving at Kentucky, John Calipari has reached six NCAA tournaments in seven seasons. Here are the previous five results: Elite Eight, Final Four, national champions, national runner-up, Final Four.

Say what you will about Calipari's methods, but the man can coach in March. His teams have made at least the Elite Eight in eight of his last nine tournament appearances and have made the second weekend each time. Calipari doesn't get upset by low-ranked teams and rarely allows his team to lose focus on the prize in front of it.

The same can no longer be said about Roy Williams, who hasn't seen an Elite Eight since 2012 or a Final Four since 2009. While North Carolina returns a majority of the core that made a Sweet 16 run a year ago, it has proved susceptible to frustrating performances. An early-season loss to Northern Iowa set the stage for a series of close defeats; each of the Tar Heels' losses came by six or fewer points.

There are a few ways to spin that. The lack of blowouts means North Carolina has never laid a true egg; it's going to compete in every game regardless of whether shots are falling. Still, a 7-6 record in single-digit games is a little unbecoming for a team with North Carolina's talent level. Williams and Co. are far from infallible.

Of course, Kentucky's not exactly flawless. Calipari has been intermittently frustrated with his team throughout the season. The Wildcats have double-digit losses to UCLA and LSU on their resume. They're young, inconsistent and invariably frustrating to watch.

The Sweet 16 matchup between these two teams, which I'd write in as a mortal lock, has all the makings of an instant classic. Call it a hunch that I'm taking Calipari and Kentucky based on their recent tournament success.

Midwest: Virginia

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Speaking of potential instant classics. If Virginia and Michigan State make it to the Elite Eight, that's a nearly impossible game to predict. Both are veteran-laden teams with tournament experience and solid two-way talent. Ken Pomeroy ranks them the second- and third-best teams in the country. We don't need to reiterate the Michigan State as a No. 1 seed point—but yeesh.

Hypothetically picking Virginia is more a comment on its stylistic superiority than anything. The Cavaliers are so good at what they do. They force you to play their ugly, borderline-unwatchable pace. They're by far the slowest team in the country, averaging a full possession fewer per game than any other team, per Team Rankings. 

This is not a fun team. Watching Virginia can be a slog. I've never been more happy for a 30-second shot clock than when sitting down for a Virginia game. It's an aesthetic bore and speaks to some real problems about over-coaching at the collegiate level. 

But you can't argue with success, and Tony Bennett has his best chance at a meaningful tournament run here. Malcolm Brogdon and London Perrantes stretch the floor just enough for a team that doesn't take many threes, and Anthony Gill helps anchor the defense by playing tough inside despite his size disadvantage (6'8", 230 lbs).

Michigan State would have the best player on the floor in Denzel Valentine. It probably has the better coach in Tom Izzo. Usually, that's a recipe for Final Four status. There's just been something unmistakably great about Virginia all season, and if the Cavaliers don't make a run in 2016, it's hard to see them doing it any time soon.

Advanced stats via Ken Pomeroy.