March Madness 2016 Predictions: Best Upset Picks for Every Region

If you're of the mindset that a crazy 2015-16 regular season is going to lead to a crazy 2016 NCAA tournament, we've got the upset picks you're going to want to make in the first two rounds.

Even if you pick the national champion and nail three of your four Final Four teams, it's almost impossible to win a bracket pool without dominating the first weekend of the tournament. After all, chances are high at least one other person has the same Final Four as you, and it's tough to be successful if your bracket is in the trash by the time the Sweet 16 is set.

In each of the four regions, we've nominated two teams (a favorite and an honorable mention) seeded No. 12 or lower that are most likely to pull off a first-round upset. We've also picked a Sweet 16 sleeper (separate from the other two picks) seeded No. 9 or lower that we see potentially winning two games.

These aren't completely crazy picks, either. In most cases, there's a good reason to buy stock in the underdog and sell stock in the favorite. And if you were to start your bracket out by penciling in these upsets before filling out the rest, you can still end up with a strong batch of Sweet 16 teams.

Get ready to enjoy the madness, and expect these teams to play a big part in it.

South First-Round Honorable Mention: No. 12 South Dakota State

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People are going to point to this matchup and rave about Maryland's star freshman, Diamond Stone, but South Dakota State's Mike Daum might be even more impressive right now.

To say that Daum flew below the radar would be an understatement. He was not rated by ESPN as part of South Dakota State's 2014 recruiting class before redshirting the 2014-15 season.

Since Jan. 3, though, the 6'9" frontcourt frosh has averaged 18.2 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, earning KenPom.com MVP honors in 50 percent of those contests. He really seeks out contact, too, ranking sixth in the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes. But it hasn't affected his shooting, as he's hitting 45 percent of his three-point attempts this season.

Maryland might be able to slow him down with Robert Carter, but he also might prove to be a matchup nightmare.

Daum—or "The Dauminator," as he's known on social media—certainly isn't alone on the court, though. Former Wisconsin transfer George Marshall and former JUCO transfer Deondre Parks make up quite the turnover-averse, scoring backcourt duo, and Reed Tellinghuisen is an above-average shooter who has made as many as seven threes in a game this season.

The Terrapins have more than enough talent to win this game. They have enough talent to win the national championship. But if this is yet another game where they simply struggle to get going and let their opponent hang around for too long, the Jackrabbits will pounce on the opportunity.

South First-Round Upset Favorite: No. 13 Hawaii

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In the world of upsets, this is a match made in heaven. People are way higher on California than they should be, and it doesn't seem like anyone outside of the Aloha State appreciates how good this Hawaii team is.

Let's focus first on the Cal side of the equation.

The Golden Bears were phenomenal at home. They went 18-0 and won by an average margin of 15.9 points per game. Everywhere else, though, they went 5-10 and were outscored by a sum of 20 points. Worse yet, they went 1-8 away from home against the RPI Top 80, and the one win came on Thursday against Oregon State in a game that Cal led 17-5 before giving it all away and trailing in the final five minutes.

RPI Top 80 might seem like an arbitrary cut-line, but that was Hawaii's RPI rank.

The Rainbow Warriors can play anywhere. In fact, they were undefeated away from home in conference play until a two-point loss to Long Beach State in the season finale—a loss they avenged in the Big West title game.

Led by former Missouri transfer Stefan Jankovic and Roderick Bobbitt, Hawaii went 27-5, including nearly scoring one of the biggest upsets of the entire season. Even on a night when Buddy Hield scored 27 and Khadeem Lattin had a career-high 17 points, the Warriors were tied with Oklahoma in the final two minutes of a three-point loss.

These guys do an excellent job of getting to the free-throw line, especially Jankovic, which should be the X-factor in this one.

Cal does not run very deep. Kingsley Okoroh and Kameron Rooks play a bit, but they're mostly just there to eat up space and minutes. The Golden Bears want to ride their primary five guys as much as possible, but Ivan Rabb has dealt with foul trouble frequently this season, and it won't be long before Jankovic is getting whistles on Rooks and Okoroh, too.

If Hawaii attacks Rabb early and often to get him out of the game, it can absolutely pull off this upset.

South Sweet 16 Sleeper: No. 11 Play-in Winner

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That's right. It doesn't even matter who wins between Wichita State and Vanderbilt, because either one is a huge threat to reach the Sweet 16.

That might seem like an unnecessary risk to take, but in each of the five tournaments since the field expanded to 68 teams, at least one play-in game winner went on to reach the round of 32. In three of those five years—VCU in 2011, La Salle in 2013, Tennessee in 2014—a play-in team at least made it as far as the Sweet 16.

There's something to be said for the increase in momentum and confidence that comes from winning a tournament game before your first-round opponent has even stepped on the floor. We see it every year in conference tournaments when teams with double byes somehow manage to lose to teams that should be exhausted from having played two games in the previous 48 hours.

And these are not conventional play-in participants.

In the preseason AP Top 25, Wichita State was ranked No. 10. Vanderbilt was No. 18. Big things were expected from both of these teams, but a Fred VanVleet hamstring injury derailed the first month for the Shockers, while the Commodores simply seemed content with spending the entire year failing to live up to their potential.

As a result, teams that felt like tournament locks four months ago ended up as two of the most hotly debated bubble teams in March. This is their chance to rewrite an otherwise lost season, and they both have the horses to do it.

The amount of tournament experience at Wichita State and the amount of future NBA talent at Vanderbilt are what make these teams great sleeper picks. If the selection committee had split up the first four as Wichita State vs. Michigan and Vanderbilt vs. Tulsa—thus making it possible for both to reach the first round—we'd likely be recommending both play-in games as Sweet 16 sleepers this year.

Arizona is almost unarguably the strongest No. 6 seed, and Miami is a No. 3 seed with definite Final Four potential. They're just in the unfortunate path of a freight train that's finally ready to leave the station.

West First-Round Honorable Mention: No. 15 Cal St. Bakersfield

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Allow me to say that I am not picking this upset. Unless you let your dog make your selections, it's unlikely you're picking it either.

But who had Norfolk State knocking off Missouri or Lehigh over Duke in 2012? Even with Georgetown's recent history of tournament failure, did you really think Florida Gulf Coast was winning that game in 2013?

No one expects a No. 15 seed to win, but it happens once in a while. And there's just something about this matchup that smells fishy.

Oklahoma is an outstanding team, and Buddy Hield was the most enjoyable player to watch this season. When the Sooners offense is on point, it's a thing of beauty.

However, it has been a long time since we've really seen them humming, hasn't it?

Oklahoma hasn't hit 80 points in a game since Groundhog Day, going 6-5 during that stretch. Though the threes are starting to fall again—the Sooners have hit at least 10 triples in five of their last six games—they've struggled to score inside the arc. In Friday's loss to West Virginia, they made 11 threes and shot just 9-of-20 from two-point range.

Enter Cal St. Bakersfield, which ranks in the top 25 nationally in the following defensive categories: adjusted efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, turnover percentage, two-point field-goal percentage, block percentage and steal percentage.

After Dedrick Basile made the game-winning, buzzer-beating three-pointer in the WAC title game to send the Roadrunners to the NCAA tournament, CBS Sports' Sam Vecenie wrote, "Their first round game is likely to be one that they try to ugly up and win on the defensive end. Given that they'll probably be a 15 or 16 seed, that's going to be a tall ask. But hey, crazier things have happened."

In their brief D-I history, the Roadrunners have never faced an opponent in the KenPom Top 15 for that season, and they were destroyed by Saint Mary's in their only Top 50 game this year. Weak competition absolutely needs to be taken into consideration with their numbers, but they did just win the WAC tournament by holding their opponents to an average of 52.7 points per game.

Oklahoma is 2-4 when scoring fewer than 70 points this season. Unless Hield is having one of those nights where nothing can be done to stop him, it's not likely the Sooners will hit 70 in this one.

West First-Round Upset Favorite: No. 11 Northern Iowa

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The instant the bottom half of the West Region was revealed, everyone got giddy about a potential Texas vs. Texas A&M rematch in the round of 32.

You guys do realize the Longhorns have to beat a team with four RPI Top 50 wins this season to get there, right?

North Carolina didn't have Marcus Paige. Iowa State was in that in-between phase after Naz Long was shut down for the year but before Deonte Burton was up to speed. You can blame the upsets on those factors, but the fact remains that Northern Iowa beat the Tar Heels and the Cyclones before winning two out of three against Wichita State.

Without a doubt, the Panthers had their problems this year. Between Dec. 5 and Jan. 23, they went 5-10 with losses to Richmond, New Mexico, Southern Illinois, Missouri State, Indiana State, Loyola-Chicago and Illinois State. It wasn't quite the fall of Rome, but it was a precipitous drop-off for a team that—Paige or no Paige—beat the Tar Heels.

But Northern Iowa has won 12 of its last 13 games and would absolutely love to join Texas in a snail-paced, foul-averse game focused on not committing turnovers. I haven't seen an over/under line for this game yet, but anything more than 120 combined points seems optimistic. That's the type of game where the Panthers typically thrive.

West Sweet 16 Sleeper: No. 12 Yale

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Twenty-seven hours.

That's how long Google Maps says it would take to drive from Waco, Texas, to "The Dunk" in Providence, Rhode Island. Without traffic, it's 26 hours, but there are tolls.

It would only take a few more hours than that to walk from Yale to the arena where it will face Baylor in the first round.

But picking Yale to upset both Baylor and Duke to reach the Sweet 16 just because it has a regional advantage would be stupid. Doing it because the Bulldogs also have a significant rebounding advantage, though, makes sense.

By far, the best thing that Baylor does is crash the offensive glass. The Bears rank third in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. But Yale isn't far behind at No. 7 in the nation in that category. And the Bulldogs just so happen to be No. 7 in defensive rebounding percentage as well, and that's the more interesting of the two, since it means they should be able to compete with Baylor's offensive rebounding prowess.

The Bulldogs are the only team in the country in the top 10 in both of those categories. Heck, Michigan State is the only other team in the top 20 in both.

If Yale can neutralize Rico Gathers and Johnathan Motley, it's much less of an uphill battle to pull off the upset.

Unfortunately, the other thing Baylor does pretty well is force turnovers, and Yale most certainly does not rank No. 7 in the nation at avoiding them. But if Makai Mason can withstand Lester Medford's ball pressure, the Bulldogs can win.

And though Yale lost to Duke back in late November, the Blue Devils still had Amile Jefferson (nine points, 12 rebounds) for that game. With a shorthanded rotation on a quick turnaround against this Yale frontcourt, it could be reminiscent of Duke's recent loss to Pitt, in which it was outrebounded 36-17.

East First-Round Honorable Mention: No. 12 Chattanooga

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No matter their draw, the Hoosiers were going to be a trendy upset pick this year, because they rely so heavily on an offense that has been stifled by Michigan and Penn State in the past six weeks.

Normally, the Hoosiers have a high-octane offense. They have scored at least 80 points in 18 of 32 games this season and have only been held to fewer than 69 points twice.

But their shots refuse to fall every once in a while, and then they compound the problem by committing turnovers out of frustration. In the loss to Michigan, they shot 23.5 percent from downtown. In a near home loss to a not-good Minnesota team, Indiana shot just 2-of-18 from downtown.

If the Hoosiers aren't firing on all cylinders against Chattanooga—a team that won 29 games this season—that's going to be a serious problem.

The Mocs won true road games against Georgia and Dayton earlier this year, both of which are pretty darn impressive for a team from the Southern Conference. On the flip side of that coin, though, they were soundly beaten by Iowa State on a night when the Cyclones shot 14-of-29 from three-point range. Even in the win over Georgia, they let the Bulldogs shoot 50 percent from downtown.

Translation: Chattanooga isn't exactly God's gift to perimeter defense. This team knows how to win, though, and has proved as much against quality teams in hostile environments.

And for all of that blathering about three-pointers, look for the game to be decided by the matchup in the post between Indiana's Thomas Bryant and Chattanooga's Justin Tuoyo. Tuoyo, a former VCU transfer, blocks a lot of shots and draws a lot of fouls—the latter of which has been an issue for Bryant this season.

East First-Round Upset Favorite: No. 13 Stony Brook

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Stony Brook's first-round opponent is what makes this upset pick so enticing yet so idiotic.

Duke and Kansas are blue-blood schools that have had their share of early disappointments over the past dozen or so years, but not Kentucky. In fact, the Wildcats are 22-1 in the first round of the NCAA tournament since 1988. The single loss came under Billy Gillispie in 2008, when they were fortunate to even make the tournament as a No. 11 seed.

So, yes, expecting Kentucky to lose in the round of 64 is a fool's errand, but so is expecting Kentucky's frontcourt to slow down Jameel Warney. Aside from a showdown with Duke's dilapidated frontcourt, Kentucky is the No. 4 seed Stony Brook must have been hoping to draw.

The Wildcats had no answer for UCLA's Thomas Welsh back in early December. They allowed three LSU players to record points-rebounds double-doubles in an 85-67 loss to that disappointment of a team. They were overwhelmed by Vanderbilt's front line in that 74-62 loss, and they struggled to slow down Tyler Davis in both matchups with Texas A&M.

And the big men on those teams aren't anywhere near as dominant as Warney has been. According to KenPom.com, he has been the MVP in 22 of Stony Brook's 30 games against D-I opponents. That's three more than any other player in the country.

The man averaged 19.8 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game this season. He's one of just five players in the last five years to put up at least 15.0, 8.0 and 2.5 in those categories. Change the range to 19.0, 10.0 and 2.8, and Saint Mary's legend Omar Samhan is the only other player in the past decade to join Warney on that list.

And don't come at me with that weak-sauce "It's only because he plays terrible opponents in the America East Conference" argument, because the dude averaged 19.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.0 blocks against Notre Dame and Vanderbilt this season.

What's particularly concerning about those aforementioned games for Kentucky is that—except for the UCLA game with Tyler Ulis still recovering from a hyperextended elbow—its dynamic duo came to play in all of them. Ulis and Jamal Murray combined for 44 points against LSU, 45 against Vanderbilt and 90 in the pair of games against the Aggies.

The sentiment about this Kentucky team is that Murray and Ulis could be enough to carry them to the Final Four, but the truth is they occasionally haven't been enough to beat bubble teams.

If Skal Labissiere plays like he did in the season finale against LSU (18 points, nine rebounds, six blocks), Kentucky should win. But if he plays like he did in the SEC tournament (10.0 MPG, 3.7 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.7 BPG), the Seawolves should advance to the round of 32 in their first NCAA tournament appearance.

East Sweet 16 Sleeper: No. 9 Providence

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North Carolina fans were already considerably less than pleased with me for having the Tar Heels projected for a No. 3 seed at the beginning of last week, so I might as well double down on that rage by noting they're the No. 1 seed in the most danger of failing to reach the Sweet 16.

For as great as they can be on offense, the Heels have had problems on the defensive end this season when trying to deal with guards who thrive on penetration.

In the loss to Texas back in December, Isaiah Taylor and Javan Felix combined for 43 points and got open looks at the hoop about as often as they wanted. UNC didn't have Marcus Paige for the loss to Northern Iowa, but Wes Washpun (21 points, eight assists) tore that defense to shreds. Grayson Allen averaged 26 points in two games against the Heels. Maryland's Melo Trimble had 23 and 12 in the ACC/B1G Challenge main event. N.C. State's Cat Barber dropped 32 on them just a few weeks ago.

And not one of those slashing guards is anywhere near as gifted as Kris Dunn.

It has been a while since Dunn flirted with a triple-double, but—provided the Friars can even get by USC in the first round—this feels like a matchup where he and Ben Bentil can put up some ridiculous numbers.

Both of Providence's studs have occasionally dealt with foul trouble this season, and whistles were the death of this team last March when Dunn picked up two very early fouls against Dayton and never had a chance to get going. If they're both able to play 35 minutes in this one, though, it's going to be a barn-burner.

"Healthy state of mind," Providence head coach Ed Cooley told Yianni Kourakis of WPRI.com after the field was announced on Sunday night. "We're finally healthy for the first time in a month and a half, so I'm excited about this. Hopefully it turns into a long run."

Midwest First-Round Honorable Mention: No. 14 Fresno State

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Fresno State was a sleeper team before the 2015-16 season even began, but the Mountain West Conference turned out to be a gigantic disappointment, failing to produce an at-large team for the first time since 2001.

Don't allow that letdown to cloud the fact that the Bulldogs have one of the most gifted guards in the country, though.

Marvelle Harris averaged 20.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.2 steals per game this season. He's one of just eight players in the past decade to go for at least 20, 4.0, 4.0 and 2.0 in those categories, and three of the other seven guys—Stephen Curry, Rodney Stuckey and Norris Cole—went on to be pretty good in the NBA.

In other words, he's the type of talent who can single-handedly alter the outcome of a game. Better yet, he is completely surrounded by veteran role players, as there are five other juniors or seniors on this roster averaging between 7.5-10.0 points per game.

Granted, these guys can't be that good if they lost five games in MWC play, including a brutally unforgivable loss to San Jose State. However, Fresno State came within five points of a road win over Oregon (before Jordan Bell was healthy) and hung right with Arizona at the McKale Center for a solid 30 minutes. The Bulldogs know a thing or two about competing with good Pac-12 teams.

And if the version of Utah that showed up for the Pac-12 championship game rears its ugly head again in this first-round game, Fresno State will win by a landslide.

Prior to the 31-point loss to Oregon, the Utes were emerging as a sneaky title contender, but one has to wonder how much confidence they lost in that game. Jakob Poeltl ought to be able to annihilate Fresno State's interpretation of a frontcourt, but only if the entire team can rebound from that dud.

Midwest First-Round Upset Favorite: No. 13 Iona

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Speaking of ridiculously talented mid-major guards, did you know A.J. English is the first player since Speedy Claxton in 1999-2000 to average at least 22.0 points, 6.0 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game for a full season?

It certainly doesn't hurt English's campaign that Iona plays at a breakneck pace, but he's not just some volume scorer. English shoots 50.6 percent from inside the arc, 37.4 percent beyond it and 84.4 from the free-throw line. And even though he is unquestionably the go-to scorer for the Gaels, he also averages 6.2 assists per game and 1.8 assists per turnover.

You can just ask the bench mob how good this guy is. English averaged 31.7 points in three games against Monmouth this season.

And it's not like there's going to be a conflict of interest in the pace of play for this first-round game against Iowa State, as the Cyclones are just as willing and able to run up and down for 40 minutes.

However, there have been legitimate concerns over the past six weeks or so about how much gas Iowa State has left in the tank. The Cyclones won back-to-back home games against Oklahoma and Kansas in late January, but they have gone 1-7 against NCAA tournament teams since then—typically in close, hard-fought games that only exacerbate the fear that their short rotation might be running on fumes.

In their Big 12 quarterfinal against Oklahoma, the Sooners did not shoot well at all. Buddy Hield finished with 39 points, but the team shot just 19.0 percent from three-point range.

The Sooners are usually in deep trouble if they don't hit at least 36 percent of those attempts, but they won because Georges Niang and Deonte Burton were the only Cyclones who bothered to show up. Everyone else looked some combination of gassed or disinterested in the process of committing 18 turnovers against a team that has not thrived on forcing them.

Iowa State loves to run, but it is 4-10 when giving up more than 77 points and 0-7 when the opposition hits 85 or higher—four of which have occurred in the past five weeks. This will be a track meet, and Iona can win those.

Midwest Sweet 16 Sleeper: No. 11 Gonzaga

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No sleeper list is complete without the granddaddy of them all.

Gonzaga has been in the unusual position of "favorite" in recent years, earning a No. 1 seed in 2013 and a No. 2 seed this past season. The Bulldogs defended that No. 2 seed a whole lot better than they did the No. 1 seed, but it has to feel good to return to their rightful position as a potential Cinderella story.

Based on talent, though, there's no way Gonzaga should have been seeded this poorly.

Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis are the most unstoppable duo in the country, and the Zags have won 19 consecutive games when they both score in double figures—which has happened in a slightly ridiculous 26 out of 33 games this season. And with Eric McClellan (20.3 PPG in WCC tournament) and Josh Perkins (10 straight games with at least eight points) finally showing legitimate signs of life, they could be a terror.

The only reason Gonzaga received a No. 11 seed is because it failed to beat quality nonconference opponents. The Bulldogs did score a three-point, neutral-court win over Connecticut but lost to Texas A&M, Arizona, SMU and UCLA. They also got swept by Saint Mary's during the regular season.

Not one of their losses was bad, though—neither in terms of margin nor opponent. The nine-point loss at SMU was the only one decided by more than five points, and with four points on 17 field-goal attempts, that was Wiltjer's worst game in his two seasons with Gonzaga.

As long as he doesn't have another stinker like that, this team is lethal. The Zags have a brutal road to the Sweet 16 through Seton Hall and (likely) Utah, but they're perfectly capable of winning those games. Heck, if they were running into any No. 2 seed other than Michigan State, Gonzaga would be a much more legitimate threat to get back to the Elite Eight for a second straight year.

Stats courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.