NCAA Tournament 2016: Early Upset Picks for March Madness Bracket

Winning your NCAA tournament bracket pool is all about picking the right favorites and avoiding the land mines. 

However, that's easier said than done. 

This time last year, it looked like Virginia, Baylor and Villanova were locks to make runs in the tournament. Instead, they ended up being the teams that destroyed your bracket by the end of the first week.

This year's tournament will be no different. Somewhere in the field is a sleeper team waiting to crash the Sweet 16 party and a tournament favorite destined to find an early exit. The trick is determining which lower-seeded squads might have the right set of characteristics to pull off an upset and which giants are ripe for the picking. 

Here's a look at a few matchups that may serve as the big upset of the round of 64. 

Gonzaga vs. Seton Hall

John Locher/Associated Press

This one might be more about questionable seeding by the selection committee as much as it is a real upset. The Gonzaga Bulldogs may not have had the most successful season, but they are coming off an Elite Eight appearance and won the West Coast Conference tournament. 

There aren't many double-digit seeds that can boast that kind of resume, and that's likely why ESPN's BPI metric likes the Bulldogs more than any other high seed to advance to the Sweet 16, per ESPN Stats & Info:

Looking at the matchup with Seton Hall, this game will come down to a few keys.

The Pirates must figure out a way to slow the Gonzaga frontcourt. 

There are few forward duos better than Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, as they combine to average 38.1 points and 18.1 rebounds per game. 

However, Seton Hall will hold a distinct advantage when it comes to guards. Isaiah Whitehead and Khadeen Carrington are the Pirates' top two scorers and are much more dynamic than anyone in Gonzaga's backcourt. 

Still, the difference in guard play hasn't shown up in the turnover category. Mark Few's team turns it over 11.2 times per game, while the Pirates are 284th in the nation with 13.8 turnovers. 

If Gonzaga's guards can take care of the ball and run the offense through Wiltjer and Sabonis, Seton Hall will have its hands full. 

Hawaii vs. California

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

If you're looking to go off the beaten path to pick your upset, the Hawaii Warriors might be your speed. 

Not only is Hawaii an intriguing small-conference champion, but California isn't exactly a flawless higher seed. 

First, let's look at the pros for the Warriors. Hawaii is a strong defensive team, ranking sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency, and is relatively strong on the boards, ranking 46th in the country in rebounding rate. The side also played No. 2 seed Oklahoma to a three-point loss in December.

In addition to team success, Hawaii has a unique talent in Stefan Jankovic. The 6'11" forward averages 15.7 points per game, blocks 1.2 shots a game and shoots 39.5 percent from three-point range. 

Now to California. The Bears aren't exactly bulletproof. They don't crash the offensive glass well (76th offensive rebounding rate), and as Joe Fortenbaugh of 95.7 The Game notes, the Bears have been rather pedestrian outside of Berkeley this season:

With a player who has the ability to single-handedly impact the game in a big way and a defense that can make things difficult, California could be in a fight to the finish in the first round. 

Wichita State vs. Vanderbilt/Arizona

The Wichita State Shockers have a long journey ahead, but make no mistake, the numbers say they have the potential to be a Sweet 16 team. 

Gregg Marshall's squad is a favorite of advanced stats website KenPom.com. The defense is ranked No. 1 in efficiency, and the Shockers are No. 12 in the nation overall. Nicole Auerbach of USA Today reports their rankings in the advanced metrics played a role in them making the field of 68:

The Shockers may have had to sweat it out, but players from a team that made a Sweet 16 appearance last season will return. The fact they weren't sure whether they would make the tournament could make them appreciate the opportunity all the more. 

“Everybody knows it’s been a long week of not knowing,” senior guard Fred VanVleet said, per Paul Suellentrop of the Wichita Eagle. “We all felt good about it, but you never know. Everybody’s mood was they just didn’t care about where, when or how. Tell us we’re in there and we’ll show up and play anybody.”

The Shockers have to win a First Four game against Vanderbilt, but the Commodores' SEC tournament loss to Tennessee is a good sign the Shockers are playing better basketball right now. 

The Shockers' road to the Sweet 16 is relatively realistic from there. Arizona and Miami are the likely opponents in the round of 64 and round of 32, respectively. Both are good teams, but the Shockers have the same odds to win the whole thing as Arizona, per Odds Shark. 

Statistics via TeamRankings.com unless otherwise noted. 

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