March Madness 2016: Safe Picks, Predictions for Riskiest Teams in NCAA Bracket

As the saying goes, there's no such thing as a sure thing, and that's especially true in the NCAA tournament. With anarchy ruling college basketball this year, the 2016 tourney is shaping up to be crazy from start to finish.

With that said, evidence from the 2015-16 season, coupled with the bracket for the Big Dance, points to the stock of certain schools trending either upward or downward over the coming weeks.

Following the reveal of the full 68-team field, two of the schools below offer some level of safety when looking to predict regional champions, while the other two carry a bit too much risk relative to their high seeding.

Safest Picks

Michigan State Spartans

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Michigan State is a bit unlucky in that it failed to get a No. 1 seed and then got placed in the same region as Virginia. Bleacher Report provided an accurate representation of Spartans fans across the country:

Aside from that, the Big Ten champions have a relatively easy road to the Final Four. Neither Dayton nor Syracuse would present a tough test in the second round, and none of Gonzaga, Utah or Seton Hall can match up with Michigan State man for man in the Sweet 16.

Senior guard Denzel Valentine is one of the best players in the country, and he and fellow seniors Matt Costello and Bryn Forbes provide the kind of experience that can be key in March. Plus, few head coaches have delivered in the NCAA tournament as consistently as Tom Izzo, per ESPN College BBall:

"

Michigan State is not a team you want to see in your bracket. pic.twitter.com/MO0U8HdH4S

— ESPN College BBall (@ESPNCBB) March 14, 2016"

Virginia is unquestionably a difficult challenge. The Cavaliers once again have a stifling defense, and now they have an efficient offense that can take them deep into the Big Dance. NFL defensive end Chris Long, a Virginia alumnus, is still worried about the possibility of his alma mater meeting MSU in the Elite Eight:

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Hey anyone in the bottom half of the Midwest region feel like beating Michigan state? Thanks asking for a friend

— Chris Long (@JOEL9ONE) March 13, 2016"

There's something almost boring about predicting Michigan State for the Final Four, since it's basically like reaching for the low-hanging fruit. In this case, going with the path of least resistance and backing the Spartans to come out of the Midwest region makes the most sense.

Oklahoma Sooners

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Oklahoma only has to travel about 30 minutes north from Norman for its first two games of the NCAA tournament. Senior guard Buddy Hield knows a partisan Oklahoma City crowd could give the Sooners an edge, per John Shinn of the Norman Transcript:

Hield will be pivotal to the school's Final Four chances. According to Sports-Reference.com, his scoring didn't change all that much between Oklahoma's 25 wins (24.96 PPG) and seven losses (25 PPG). His shooting percentage, however, in the Sooners' victories was an impressive 51.6 percent, compared to 43.2 percent in their defeats.

Having one of the country's top scorers is a luxury, but it can turn into a crutch in the NCAA tournament. One bad night from Hield could wreck his team's chances. Granted, Oklahoma is far from a one-man show, with Isaiah Cousins, Jordan Woodard and Ryan Spangler all averaging double figures in scoring. The Sooners also rank 11th in adjusted defense, per KenPom.com.

Texas A&M is a very physical team, and that could cause major problems for Oklahoma in the Sweet 16. On their best day, though, the Sooners should beat the Aggies. They're also in the same region as the weakest No. 1 seed in the tournament, Oregon, which they would also match up well against.

From top to bottom, Oklahoma is the best team in the West region, and the road to Houston for the Final Four couldn't set up much better for coach Lon Kruger's group.

Riskiest Picks

North Carolina Tar Heels

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

North Carolina might play its first two games in Raleigh, but that's where the generosity from the selection committee ends. The Tar Heels are the top seed in arguably the most difficult region of the tournament.

The top half of the East region alone contains three of college basketball's most storied programs, per ESPN Stats & Info:

Kentucky has improved more and more as the season has worn on and is one of the most talented teams in the country. Indiana might have lost its first game of the Big Ten tournament, but that doesn't diminish an otherwise impressive season.

Either school could send North Carolina packing in the Sweet 16. According to KenPom.com, the Wildcats boast the No. 1 offense in Division I, with the Hoosiers coming in strong at No. 7. Defense is the Tar Heels' biggest weakness, as they're allowing 69.5 points a game (114th).

One couldn't go too wrong by projecting UNC to make it all the way to Houston, but a potential matchup with either the Hoosiers or Wildcats is enough to make the ACC champions a little too risky at this stage.

Miami Hurricanes

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Miami's 25 wins are tied for the second-most in school history, and the Hurricanes' reward for their efforts is a matchup with Vanderbilt, Arizona or Wichita State in the second round.

No one individual metric can accurately portray the respective strength of the Commodores, Wildcats and Shockers, but a combination of KenPom.com's Pythagorean rating and ESPN.com's RPI and BPI show how difficult any one of those teams will be for Miami:

Team	Overall Record	Pythagorean Rating	RPI	BPI
Arizona	25-8	.8927 (16th)	.5968 (26th)	84.4 (13th)
Vanderbilt	19-13	.8641 (27th)	.5690 (60th)	79.9 (24th)
Wichita State	24-8	.9005 (12th)	.5760 (51st)	79.7 (25th)

Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller argued Arizona was one of biggest losers with the way the bracket played out:

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First off, the seed itself is a little suspect. Despite dealing with several injuries before and during the season, Arizona went 25-8 and did not lose a single game by a double-digit margin. The Wildcats were ranked in the AP Top 25 in every week of the season and clearly passed the eye test.

(And don't even bother trying to tell me about their pathetic nonconference SOS, because being No. 2 in the country in that category didn't do San Diego State any favors. The committee was clearly selective at best in caring about that metric.)

"

Should Miami get past a difficult second-round hurdle, a meeting with the second-seeded Villanova Wildcats could beckon in the Sweet 16.

The Hurricanes more than earned their No. 3 seed. They went 4-3 against teams in the RPI Top 25 and 7-3 against teams inside the top 50 of the RPI, per ESPN.com. They also boast one of the more efficient scoring units in the country, ranking 12th in KenPom.com's adjusted offense.

Still, Miami will be tested early and often in the tournament, and it wouldn't be a major surprise to see them crash out in the round of 32.

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