NCAA Bracket 2016: Complete Guide to South Region

If the regular season was any indication of what the 2016 NCAA tournament will look like, seedings may not matter. 

There was a ton of parity in college basketball this year. And it carried over to the conference tournaments, when 20 No. 1 seeds went down.

But over the past six weeks, there has been one school that's actually started to pull away from the rest. 

Kansas will be the team to beat in the South region. The Jawhawks should ultimately be looking at Villanova, Miami, Maryland and California as its toughest challengers based on seedings. 

I went ahead and broke down the key teams, stars, sleepers, storylines and winning picks for what looks like a loaded section of the bracket.

Round-of-64 Schedule and TV Info

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Tuesday

(Games in Dayton)

Vanderbilt (11) vs. Wichita State (11), 9:10 Eastern, truTV

Thursday

(Games in Des Moines)

Colorado (8) vs. Connecticut (9), 1:30 p.m. Eastern, TNT

Kansas (1) vs. Austin Peay (16), 4 p.m. Eastern, TNT

(Games in Providence)

Miami (3) vs. Buffalo (14), 6:50 Eastern, TNT

Arizona (6) vs. Vanderbilt (11)/Wichita State, 9:20 Eastern, TNT 

Friday

(Games in Spokane)

California (4) vs. Hawaii (13), 2 p.m. Eastern, TBS

Maryland (5) vs. South Dakota (12), 4:30 p.m. Eastern, TBS

(Games in Brooklyn)

Iowa (7) vs. Temple (10), 3 p.m. Eastern, truTV

Must-See Games

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Vanderbilt vs. Wichita State (Play-in Game)

One of the more interesting matchups in the South is actually the play-in game between Vanderbilt and Wichita State, with the winner moving on to face Arizona. 

Vanderbilt has been relatively frustrating all season long, given the expectations and talent. But when the Commodores are on their game, they're no easy out. Just ask Kentucky and Texas A&M, who both fell to Vanderbilt in February.

There should be enough talent between Wade Baldwin IV, Damian Jones, Matthew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson and Luke Kornet to compete with anyone. 

On the other hand, Wichita State has the toughness and experience. Led by Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker, the Shockers always come to play in March. With a nonconference win over Utah earlier in the year, they've already proved they can knock off bigger and more powerful teams. 

No. 8 Colorado vs. No. 9 Connecticut 

Connecticut may not even be here if it wasn't for a game-tying half-court shot in triple overtime against Cincinnati over the weekend. The Huskies will now match up with Colorado, which ranks No. 4 in the country in rebounding. 

Averaging 16.1 points and 8.7 boards on 53.2 percent shooting, senior Josh Scott represents the Buffaloes' featured big man. But they've also gotten some lights-out shooting from sophomore George King, who's fresh off two 20-plus-point games and makes 45.6 percent of his threes.

Connecticut ultimately will need its bigs and wings, specifically Daniel Hamilton and Shonn Miller, to help out Amida Brimah around the basket.

Top Storylines

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Will Kansas' No. 1 overall seed hold up? 

Parity was the theme of college hoops in 2015-16. Based on the regular season, this seemed like a good year to pick a non-No. 1 to win it all. 

But over the last six weeks, Kansas has really begun to separate itself from the pack. The Jayhawks have won 14 straight games, and with a rotation loaded with veterans and sophomore Devonte' Graham on a roll, this is a difficult lineup to bet against. 

Then again, so was Kentucky a year ago. 

Can Villanova end its recent postseason losing history? 

Despite being a No. 1 seed in 2014-15, a No. 2 seed in 2013-14 and a No. 2 seed in 2010, Villanova has won a total of three NCAA tournament games over the last six years. 

The Wildcats are a No. 2 seed this season with what appears to be an extremely difficult road to the Final Four. Plus, big man Daniel Ochefu looks banged up.

"He [Ochefu] hasn’t dunked a basketball in three or four games...every time he gets out there he tweaks it again," coach Jay Wright told Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel. 

With Josh Hart and a disciplined backcourt consisting of Ryan Arcidiacono and Jalen Brunson, this team has weapons. But it's had weapons before. There should be pressure on Villanova to snap its recent postseason struggles.

Connecticut is riding another wave into the NCAA tournament 

Connecticut was a bubble team just a few days ago. That was before a four-overtime win against Cincinnati and a beatdown on Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. 

Daniel Hamilton has emerged as one of the country's more underrated jack-of-all-trade players. Meanwhile, no coach will want to face Kevin Ollie. But most importantly, the Huskies have momentum. And we've seen them do some serious damage with it in the past.

Stars to Watch

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Perry Ellis, Power Forward, Kansas

Ellis enters the dance on a roll, having averaged 20 points over Kansas' previous five games. He's the top option for the tournament's No. 1 overall seed. And he's been reliable, shooting 52.3 percent on the year.

With mid-range touch and terrific footwork in the post, Ellis is one of the tougher half-court covers in the country. 

Jarrod Uthoff, Small Forward/Power Forward, Iowa

Uthoff is having a major breakout season. And after hitting a rough patch late in February, he caught fire at just the right time. Uthoff combined to shoot 20-of-35 against Michigan and Illinois in Iowa's two games in the Big Ten tournament. 

At 6'9", he's an excellent athlete with versatility NBA teams traditionally covet. Since 1995, only Uthoff and Shane Battier have averaged at least two threes and two blocks per game, per Sports-Reference.com. He plays both forward positions, with the ability to stretch the floor, attack the rim or separate into jumpers off the dribble. 

Melo Trimble, Point Guard, Maryland

If Maryland is going anywhere, it will be on the back of Trimble. He's one of the few players capable of taking over games, which we've seen him do throughout his two-year career. 

However, with the additions of Robert Carter Jr., Rasheed Sulaimon and Diamond Stone to Maryland's rotation, Trimble has taken a step back as a scorer to focus on facilitating. He's raised his assist average to 5.1 from three, having showcased dazzling ball-handling, playmaking and shot-creativity. 

Trimble has been erratic, but when he's cooking, he's one of the country's more exciting players and tougher covers.

Tyrone Wallace, Point Guard, California

With so much attention given to freshmen Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb, Wallace's 15.3 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.4 assists have flown under the radar. He's coming off a terrific 26-point effort in an overtime loss to Utah and a 10-assist line in a win over Oregon State. 

California has a ton of weapons, but it's Wallace who does most of the scoring and decision-making. He'll have a chance to make up for some inconsistency throughout his career by powering California through the South.

Favorites Most Likely to Fall

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Villanova Wildcats 

Forget Villanova has struggled over the past handful of NCAA tournaments. The Wildcats bracket this year is just too scary. Iowa is a tough No. 7 seed and certainly not a team you'd want to play during the first weekend. 

After Iowa (or Temple), Villanova would likely have to face either Miami or Arizona. Even Vanderbilt, which has been disappointing, is a No. 11 seed loaded with talent, including two potential first-round picks (Damian Jones, Wade Baldwin IV). 

With Daniel Ochefu possibly less than 100 percent, Villanova could be vulnerable if Josh Hart has an off night.

Maryland Terrapins 

Maryland has lost five of its last eight games, and if you're a believer in momentum, this isn't a team to pick going far. 

Plus, as good as Trimble can be, when he's off, so is Maryland. Over the past month, he's shot 2-of-15 in a loss to Michigan State, 4-of-12 in a loss at Purdue, 3-of-11 in a loss at Minnesota and 1-of-14 in a loss to Wisconsin. 

Jake Layman has come and gone, and though the starting lineup has big names at every position, Maryland doesn't get much firepower from its bench. 

This is a group that can beat anyone, but it can also go down on any given day.

Most Likely Cinderella

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Vanderbilt Commodores 

It may sound crazy, given how erratic the Commodores have been, but this is not a team higher seeds will want to see.

And considering Vanderbilt may not have even expected to make the NCAA tournament, it could have a "playing with house money" mentality. 

Wade Baldwin IV has the ability to make life difficult for opposing ball-handlers. He recently helped hold Kentucky's Tyler Ulis to just 5-of-20 shooting in February.

In Damian Jones, coach Kevin Stallings also has an option to feature in the post, as well as shooters like Baldwin, Matthew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson and Riley LaChance to surround him with.

Luke Kornet will ultimately be the X-factor. If he can give Vanderbilt consistent shooting and rim protection (three blocks per game), this becomes a lineup that can score—both in transition and the half court—and defend. 

I'm not sold on Wichita State or Arizona. A pair of confidence-building wins could ultimately jump-start this talented lineup.

Who Will Make the Sweet 16?

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Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas is simply too powerful for either Colorado or Connecticut in the second round. And they're playing their best ball of the season.

With Wayne Selden Jr.'s emergence early in the year—plus Devonte' Graham' late emergence—there are simply too many weapons for opposing defenses to contain. Look for the Jayhawks to smoke both of its first-round opponents and enter the round of 16 untested.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa has struggled lately, but the Hawkeyes should have the best player on the floor during each of its first two games. Jarrod Uthoff hasn't received the national attention he's deserved for averaging 18.9 points and 2.6 blocks on 39.2 percent shooting from deep.

But Peter Jok's breakout has been arguably just as important. He's raised his scoring average to 16.2 points from seven and his three-point mark to 41.2 percent from 34.3 percent. 

With shooters on the wing, a post man in Adam Woodbury and a veteran ball-handler in Mike Gesell, this team has balance and discipline. Iowa is a sleeper if it can shake off its recent rust.

Miami Hurricanes

Buffalo shouldn't be a problem for the Hurricanes in the opening round. It's their next opponent they'll have to watch for. Still, I'll take Miami's backcourt—Shelden McClellan and Angel Rodriguez—as well as coach Jim Larranaga in 2016. Arizona, Vanderbilt and Wichita State will be tough, but Miami is battled-tested. Despite suffering a five-point loss to Virginia in the ACC tournament, the Hurricanes have played well over the past month and have plenty of big wins to show for their No. 3 seed. 

California Bears

California has weapons at every position, as well as the athleticism and speed to overwhelm Hawaii, Maryland or South Dakota State. Ivan Rabb has been an animal around the basket, while Tyrone Wallace and Jaylen Brown each put loads of pressure on the rim. 

We've already seen them beat No. 1 seed Oregon back in February. If Jordan Matthews and Jabari Bird can shoot the way they did during the regular season, they'll have a puncher's chance against Kansas in the Sweet 16.

The Elite 8 Matchup Will Be...

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I wouldn't be shocked if Kansas ended up sleepwalking through its first three games. It's that Miami team at the bottom half of the bracket the Jayhawks must watch out for. 

With a go-to man in Sheldon McClellan and a veteran floor general in Angel Rodriguez, Miami's backcourt is dangerous. And the Hurricanes have four seniors in the starting lineup.

They have racked up wins over Utah, Duke, Virginia and Louisville. There is no question they're capable of taking down Villanova, who just lost to Seton Hall in the Big East tournament. 

California should represent Kansas' biggest roadblock, but it's difficult to trust the Bears' shooting or interior game.

The Jayhawks just have too many scorers, ball-handlers, snipers and depth—not to mention one of the most successful coaches over the past decade. 

Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed for a reason, and I suspect that seed will hold up through the first three games of the tournament.

And the Final Four Team Is...Kansas

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As much as I want to pick Miami, Kansas just brings too much talent, experience and momentum to the table. 

Perry Ellis is one of the few players you can bank on for consistent half-court offense. And Wayne Selden Jr. has finally turned the corner and emerged as an option Kansas can lean on. 

Considering Ellis, Selden, Frank Mason III, Devonte' Graham and Brannen Greene each shoot above 40 percent from three, Kansas also has margin for error.

Aside from how many weapons they have offensively, the Jayhawks also rank No. 5 in the country in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. 

They're on another level compared to challengers in the South. The only question is if one can catch Kansas on an off night?

Based on the last six weeks, that doesn't seem likely. Coach Bill Self has arguably America's most balanced group peaking at just the right time.