NCAA Tournament 2016: Bubble Teams That Will Miss Out on March Madness

Some years, predicting which bubbles on the fringe of the NCAA tournament will burst seems as simple as nailing down a few of the teams sure to appear in the Final Four.

Not this year.

There aren't many in the way of clear-cut, surefire contenders this year, and the ripple effect extends all the way down the collegiate hierarchy. More bubble teams than usual exist, especially after a wild conference tournament schedule featuring plenty of upsets and close affairs.

For some, the whole thing goes pop, and it's off to the NIT after Selection Sunday. Here's a look at the teams in need of preparing for plan B.

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When: Sunday, March 13, at 5:30 p.m. ET

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Bubbles Sure to Pop Sunday

Saint Mary's

USA TODAY Sports

Many seem split on the idea of Saint Mary's in the tournament. 

Those in favor of advanced analytics love the fact the Gaels rank 41st in ESPN's RPI rankings. For some, such a solid number on its own should get the team into the Big Dance.

But it gets trickier the more one does homework. The RPI is nice, but look at the 2-2 mark against the RPI top 50. Look at a horrific 164th strength of schedule and the fact both of those wins against teams in the top 50 came against Gonzaga.

The capper? Gonzaga just toppled Saint Mary's in the WCC title game, 85-75.

Sports Illustrated's Seth Davis was one of many to point at the schedule:

Saint Mary's overachieved on expectations, and yes, it's not simple for a mid-major to secure good games and boost the strength of schedule. Emmett Naar (14.3 points per game) and the Gaels are fun, too, as a team shooting 41 percent from deep.

Fun isn't enough, though, at least not this year. Saint Mary's can go into the NIT and put on a show with the elite shooting, but this is more of a building block for next season's Cinderella run.

Vanderbilt

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

See, this is where all the numbers get mixed up and difficult to figure out, making most feel as if the selection committee almost elects to take aim at the board with a blindfold on before tossing the dart. 

Take Vanderbilt: It ranks 60th in RPI but has 19 wins and a 43rd-ranked strength of schedule. The SEC didn't make it easy on the Commodores, but while the strength looks good, keep in mind a 2-7 mark against the RPI top 50.

To make matters even worse, Vanderbilt needed to win at least one game in the SEC tournament to improve the resume. Instead, the Commodores fell by two points to Tennessee—a team nine days earlier they had walloped in 86-69 fashion.

Maybe folks should have expected this, though. Wade Baldwin, Vanderbilt's leading scorer, didn't exactly hold back after the crushing loss.

"Last year, we played the same team and lost in the same round [to Tennessee]. That's unacceptable," Baldwin said, according to ESPN.com's Chris Low. "It's about the NCAA tournament, but it's also about winning a conference tournament."

Vanderbilt continues to come up short when it matters most—a trait perhaps ready to rise above any numbers folks can throw at the problem. On a bubble with star players, upset darlings and teams with downright better resumes, the Commodores simply pale in comparison. 

Georgia

David Goldman/Associated Press

It's going to be a rough, rough day for the SEC. 

Georgia makes the list next, in large part because the Bulldogs went on an incredible run in the SEC tournament and advanced all the way to the semifinals before bowing out.

The Bulldogs land 62nd in RPI as a result. Most will pound the table about a 23rd strength of schedule, but the team couldn't muster even one win against the RPI top 50 in five attempts. Feel free to point at the 6-12 mark against the top 100 to suggest it wasn't entirely a lost cause, but think about this: Three of those six wins came against the same team (South Carolina).

It almost goes without saying that Georgia would have been fun in the tournament, especially with J.J. Frazier, Yante Maten and Kenny Gaines all shooting better than 39 percent from downtown.

The Bulldogs needed to win in the semifinals of the conference tournament, but they fell flat against No. 16 Kentucky, 93-80.

An inability to finish games has haunted the Bulldogs all season, hence losses to teams such as Chattanooga. Again, here's a trait the selection committee will take a hard look at and eventually find it makes the decision much easier.

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Stats and information courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN.com.