March Madness 2016: Predicting Top Four Seeds and Championship Favorites
Selection Sunday is just two days away, and remaining conference tournament games will play a large part in how the 68-team bracket plays out.
At this point, four teams have a solid hold on the No. 1 seeds, according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi.
For now, he lists the Kansas Jayhawks, Villanova Wildcats, North Carolina Tar Heels and Virginia Cavaliers on the top seed line. Although a loss or two could shake up the field, in a season that has proved unpredictable at best, the top four seeds are as close to a lock as you'll see during the final weekend.
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Here are some predictions and analysis for the projected No. 1 seeds come NCAA tournament time:
| Midwest | Kansas Jayhawks | 28-4 |
| South | Virginia Cavaliers | 25-6 |
| East | Villanova Wildcats | 28-4 |
| West | North Carolina Tar Heels | 26-6 |
Kansas Jayhawks
Why they are a No. 1 seed: For starters, the Jayhawks are tied for the most overall wins for a Power Five team, have more RPI Top 50 victories than anyone in the country and won the nation's best conference (for the 12th time in a row) by two games.
They also own college basketball's longest winning streak at 12 and would be hard-pressed not to pass anyone's eye test at this point.
Why they won't be a No. 1 seed: There isn't any conceivable way they fall to a No. 2 seed, even with a loss to the Baylor Bears in the Big 12 semifinals on Friday. The only question mark is whether they get the No. 1 overall seed.
Overview: While there are no guarantees once the tournament starts, it's as safe a bet as any that Kansas will have a No. 1 next to its name come Selection Sunday.
Virginia Cavaliers
Why they are a No. 1 seed: While the Jayhawks own a longer win streak, the Cavaliers are right on their heels. They won 11 of 13 games to end the regular season, while their only losses were on the road by three points to the Miami Hurricanes and by one to the Duke Blue Devils.
Virginia also has nine Top 50 RPI wins, including four against Top 10 RPI teams.
Why they won't be a No. 1 seed: Four of Virginia's six losses have come to teams with an RPI ranking of 50 to 100. In comparison, Kansas, Villanova and North Carolina have a combined two losses against teams with an RPI of 50 or worse.
Overview: While those losses aren't good for the resume, Virginia looks poised to win the ACC tournament, which could give it two more Top 50 wins. It would be hard to keep a 27-win team with 11 Top 50 RPI wins and a second-place regular-season ACC finish off the top line.
Villanova Wildcats
Why they are a No. 1 seed: While Kansas has more quality wins, the Wildcats don't have a bad loss. All four losses have come against Top 50 RPI teams, including Virginia (2), the Oklahoma Sooners (5), Xavier Wildcats (6) and Providence Friars (36).
The Providence game was at home, but 28 wins against a strength of schedule ranked No. 25, according to ESPN.com, more than makes up for one semi-questionable home loss.
Why they won't be a No. 1 seed:
Overview: Even with a loss in the Big East semis, like Kansas, Villanova has done enough to warrant a No. 1 seed no matter what happens prior to Selection Sunday.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Why they are a No. 1 seed: North Carolina won the ACC regular season and five games against Top 50 RPI teams, including a thriller at Duke. The 'Heels also only have one loss outside the RPI Top 50, a four-point defeat on the road against the Northern Iowa Panthers.
If they beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the Virginia/Miami winner in the ACC tournament, the Tar Heels are all but guaranteed a No. 1 seed.
Why they won't be a No. 1 seed: UNC is probably the shakiest of the bunch when it comes to a top seed and may have benefited from the ACC's easiest schedule. It also lacks the number of big wins the other top teams have on their resume.
Overview: It might take the conference tournament to cement a top seed for the Tar Heels. If they lose in the semis to Notre Dame, they could be sweating a bit when it comes to the top seed line come Selection Sunday.
The Betting Favorites
It's important to note that No. 1 seeds aren't always the betting favorites to win the NCAA tournament. In fact, per Odds Shark, only Kansas and North Carolina are one of the top four favorites to cut down the nets:
| Kansas Jayhawks | Plus-500 |
| Michigan State Spartans | Plus-500 |
| North Carolina Tar Heels | Plus-900 |
| Kentucky Wildcats | Plus-1000 |
| Villanova Wildcats | Plus-1200 |
| Virginia Cavaliers | Plus-1400 |
While it's great to earn that top seed, what makes the NCAA tournament so great is how unpredictable it can be. Last year's champion, Duke, was a No. 1 seed, but the Connecticut Huskies won the year before as a No. 7 seed against No. 8 Kentucky.
In other words, teams should enjoy a No. 1 seed if they receive it, but know it guarantees nothing.
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