March Madness Sleepers 2016: Predicting Which Teams Will Impact NCAA Tournament

When filling out your March Madness bracket, there are some college basketball teams that you just can't fall asleep on. Sleepers are what make the first weekend of the NCAA tournament so exciting.

This is where bets and bragging rights are won or lost—a select group of teams that can make your bracket shine if you're right or leave you with a lot of missed opportunities for points.

We're not here to suggest these teams have much more than one full weekend in them. It's virtually impossible to say any of them will get to Houston for the Final Four. But there are several sleeping giants that could create havoc on the way to the Sweet 16.

For the purposes of this slideshow, the sleepers are seeded no higher than sixth according to Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller, as of his bracket projection at the end of Thursday's games. (We also kept teetering Vanderbilt around despite a miserable Thursday performance in the SEC tournament.)

Factoring in RPI, records against the RPI top 25 and top 50 and whether any of these teams have that one key player or attribute that could advance them, these are power-conference squads that will kill you if you let down your guard.

For the purpose of these projections, we're considering a sleeper any team that's likely to end up getting seeded sixth or worse but (depending on its draw) could make it to at least the second weekend (Sweet 16). Last year's NCAA tournament saw five such teams advance to the second weekend, with Michigan State advancing to the Final Four as a No. 7 seed.

Who are the next round of Spartans? Read on to find out.

Providence Friars

Stew Milne/Associated Press

RPI: 42

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-4

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-6

Providence is Dunn, not done.

Sorry, couldn't resist. But it's also impossible to resist thinking Providence could make a splash for a few more weeks.

Sure, it's been a bumpy road. Do-everything point guard Kris Dunn had an illness that set him (and some teammates) back for a stretch that had the Friars lose five of six games.

Sophomore forward Ben Bentil has dealt with a nagging ankle injury. This team that started 14-1 and spent a dozen weeks in the Top 25 probably had it rolling a little too smoothly, considering it lost 40 percent of its scoring from last year. The Friars have overachieved and underachieved. Middle ground might be OK for this group now.

What you have to like is a superstar talent like Dunn who feels like he has something to prove.

"I don't want it to end in two weeks. I want to leave my legacy the right way and try to make a run in this tournament and in the NCAAs," Dunn told reporters at Madison Square Garden in the lead-up to the Big East tournament. "This is the most important time of the season."

Throw out the fact this team went 2-5 in February. Dunn's done enough to be regarded as a high NBA draft pick this summer. He's playing purely to see what he can do for his school. That's a good place for a sleeper hold.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

RPI: 23

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 4-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-7

Iowa's battle-tested. Some would say battle-scarred.

But the Hawkeyes should still be considered, even after a four-game losing streak showed off flaws. And it shouldn't be surprising that it didn't get any better in the Big Ten tournament, considering the program is 2-10 in the last 10 years (counting Thursday's two-point loss to Illinois).

This is a team that has seen all styles in league play—from Michigan State's toughness to Purdue's size and Indiana's hefty scoring ability—and will be served well to get to new confines.

Head coach Fran McCaffery has a team that needs to figure out how to win close games but has the guys to get it done. Iowa shot just 38 percent from the field during its skid from Feb. 17 to March 1 but still never lost by more than eight points.

The Hawkeyes have hit only 31.7 percent of their three-pointers since the team had a 19-5 start. 

Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok, however, can atone for Iowa's questionable backcourt play with their size and outside-shooting versatility.

It's a team that generally hits shots and limits turnovers—a good combo this time of year, even if the Hawkeyes have let off the gas lately.

Wisconsin Badgers

Robert Franklin/Associated Press

RPI: 30

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 4-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-6

Not as lovable as last year's Badgers, Wisconsin is nonetheless a team to watch for a big first weekend.

Wisconsin has gone 11-2 since a Jan. 17 win against Michigan State. The players seemed relieved that Greg Gard was hired as a permanent replacement after Bo Ryan retired in mid-December, when his team was playing .500 ball (9-9).

We like Wisconsin because it's playing with house money at this point. Who would've thought two months ago this team could keep its 17-year NCAA tournament appearance streak going? This is a team that has had to work all winter to escape the massive shadow of last year's captivating squad that made it to the championship game.

Now, it has some of the parts and experience still in play but can play loose.

The only thing this team doesn't do particularly great is guard the three-point line. Teams shoot 38 percent against Wisconsin, per KenPom.com, which puts the Badgers near the bottom in the country.

UW played on the road five times in the last seven games, four of them coming against ranked teams—Maryland, Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue.

Remember, Gard's guys gave the Terrapins and Hawkeyes their first home losses of the season during that span.

Yeah, this team should have some good odds on neutral courts.

Stenographers everywhere, prepare to be charmed all over again.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Mark Humphrey/Associated Press

RPI: 48

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 2-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-8

Look at all that size in the picture above.

Who wants to mess with that in the NCAA tournament?

Is Vanderbilt perfect? No; that's why the Commodores (round of 64s) are here. In fact, now there's major concern they won't be "here" in the NCAA tournament after a two-point loss to Tennessee on Thursday in the SEC tournament.

It's a befuddling team, to say the least. It was two totally different halves against the Volunteers, with the Commodores shooting 60 percent in the second one but not able to overcome a turnover-plagued opening 20 minutes.

But let's imagine Vandy sneaks in. A late-season burst had been built by taking better advantage of a talented starting lineup (more minutes) and having a pair of 7-footers, Damian Jones and Luke Kornet, at its disposal.

Throw in one of the top "glue guys" in the country, small forward Jeff Roberson, and if a talented shooter like Riley LaChance can work his way out of a rough year, it's a potential Sweet 16 team.

Head coach Kevin Stallings finally figured this group out late. The five starters played nearly 90 percent of the minutes in wins against Georgia, Florida and Kentucky.

The big "if" is Jones. Vandy is 2-5 if he fouls out. He commits five fouls every 40 minutes and draws six. If Jones is fouled more than he gets fouled, that's another perk Vandy has moving forward.

USC Trojans

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

RPI: 40

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-6

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-7

A deep-run contender? Probably not, but certainly USC has enough ability to spoil some brackets.

If only every opponent could be rival UCLA. Well, not as bad as the Bruins were in the final two months. It’s just not possible to find a team playing so awful in the NCAA tournament.

But the Bruins brought out the best in USC in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament Wednesday. USC had lost six of its previous eight games, but it now looks like a solid tournament team.

Advancing will be an easy formula: Don't let the opponent have a better shooting percentage. USC is 2-9 when that has happened.

But head coach Andy Enfield has finally turned it around a little bit. This is already a nine-game improvement from last year, and that's after not playing well for a month.

Bennie Boatwright is a difference-maker. The 6'10" freshman shoots a respectable 35 percent from three-point range and 74 percent from the foul line.

His problem, like many of his teammates, is settling for shots in no man's land. He was either at the rim or hitting five of nine three-pointers against the Bruins, pointing USC in the right direction.

Enfield's group can be hard for opponents to figure out too. Five players average double figures in scoring.

Seton Hall Pirates

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

RPI: 34

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-3

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5

Seton Hall is one of those programs with a big name but little NCAA tournament experience in recent years to back it up. This will be the Pirates' first appearance in 10 years.

The great news is it's built on a young group that should play loose and free after overachieving in conference play. Sophomore Isaiah Whitehead averaged 22 points and nearly six assists while his team went 9-2 to close out the regular season.

Kevin Willard overcame a lot of around-campus skepticism about his coaching.

It's not a flashy team and probably has a shelf life on it because of tepid shooting. But it defends well and is terrific at going after the offensive glass—like an East Coast version of San Diego State.

That can be a good enough formula to bust some brackets.

South Carolina Gamecocks

Richard Shiro/Associated Press

RPI: 47

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 1-1

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-1

As evidenced by the numbers above, South Carolina has skated through the season.

But that's a good thing, along with being able to rest a few extra days before finding an opponent in the SEC tournament.

South Carolina is a flawed team that doesn't shoot well, gives up three-pointers and has a habit of bad turnovers.

But it has a great equalizer in head coach Frank Martin, who often found ways to win NCAA tournament games while at Kansas State and finally will get a chance in his fourth year in Columbia.

Martin won five NCAA postseason games in his last three years at K-State. So, given the opportunity, we like his chances to guide a sleeper.

What South Carolina has in its favor, besides Martin, is tenacity. The Gamecocks are No. 11 nationally in offensive rebounding, collecting nearly 38 percent of their misses. That sets up a ton of free throw and three-point play potential.

Texas Longhorns

BRODY SCHMIDT/Associated Press

RPI: 24

Record vs. RPI Top 25: 5-5

Record vs. RPI Top 50: 8-7

So much of the Big 12 talk this season has centered on Kansas, Iowa State and Oklahoma, or even the fantastic full-court effort from West Virginia.

But how about Texas? It seems like getting out of league play, getting healthy and getting a shot at some unsuspecting team is a good thing.

The Longhorns bowed out of the Big 12 tournament quickly Thursday. They just couldn't hit a shot against Baylor. There were a ton of open looks inside, but nothing fell.

Now comes a chance to take a deep breath and try to get healthier. Cam Ridley, who broke his foot Dec. 27, hardly played against the Bears after missing the last two months.

Point guard Isaiah Taylor is battling foot problems. Who knows how he'll be in a week?

Confidence is low and UT "looked broken," wrote Austin American-Statesman columnist Kirk Bohls after the 75-61 quarterfinals outcome, pointing out all sorts of individual and team slumping.

"Never mind that coach Shaka Smart pronounced afterward that he thinks his team 'is capable of doing some damage in the NCAA tournament.' Sure, it's possible," Bohls added. "Texas still has an electric point guard, a thriving stretch 4 in Connor Lammert and a rapidly improving Shaq Cleare and Kerwin Roach."

That's exactly why Texas counts as a sleeper, even with Smart on the bench.

RPI rankings and team records current as of March 10.