March Madness 2016 Brackets: Favorites, Sleepers, Cinderellas and More Advice

After the NCAA tournament bracket is released, all eyes focus on how to fill it out. March tends to go mad before the big dance begins, with conference tournaments providing upsets and leaving a sour taste in the mouth of teams with championship aspirations. 

This year's field of 68 is particularly difficult to pin down because there hasn't been a singular dominant team. Kansas has held that title for the last two weeks, but the current Associated Press Top 10 has a combined 54 losses this season.

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Key Tournament Trend: Watch the No. 14 Seeds

Rick Wilson/Associated Press

Everyone knows that tournament brackets are broken in the first two days because of a natural aversion to picking upsets, or at least the wrong upsets. No one is surprised when a No. 12 seed knocks off a No. 5 seed because that's expected at this point. 

As parity in college basketball continues to expand, so, too, have the different upset trends in the NCAA tournament. The last three years have seen one No. 3 seed knocked off by a No. 14 seed in the round of 64. 

Year	No. 3 Seed	No. 14 Seed	Final Score
2013	New Mexico	Harvard	Harvard, 68-62
2014	Duke	Mercer	Mercer, 78-71
2015	Baylor	Georgia State	Georgia State, 57-56

There will certainly come a point when a No. 16 shocks the world by defeating a No. 1 seed, but no one will be able to predict that. It's just one of those things that will happen and Twitter will explode with thoughts of "March is insane" and producing 1,000 memes per minute about what just happened. 

Yet with one No. 14 seed having won each of the last three years, it's safe to call this a trend. It's not like these were three mid-major programs that got the benefit of the doubt from the selection committee. Duke and Baylor play in two of the nation's best conferences. 

Because of how volatile things have been with ranked teams this season, seeing four or five double-digit seeds advance to the round of 32 would not be a surprise. 

Title Favorite: Michigan State Spartans

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

OddsShark lists Kansas and Michigan State as co-favorites heading into the NCAA tournament at plus-500, but let's not allow a technicality to get in the way of a proper prediction.

It wouldn't stun anyone if Kansas was cutting down the nets in Houston on April 4. The Jayhawks are the top-ranked team in the nation and have won their last 14 games to build the always-important March momentum.

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo will always be given the benefit of the doubt in March. It's one benefit that comes with making seven Final Four appearances since 1999. This is his best team, by record, since the 2000-01 squad that went 28-5 before losing to Arizona in the Final Four.

If the debate over Kansas and Michigan State rages on, the Spartans hold the edge in terms of efficiency on both sides of the ball.

Team	Offensive Efficiency (National Ranking)	Defensive Efficiency (National Ranking)
Michigan State	118.9 (3rd)	94.0 (17th)
Kansas	116.1 (11th)	96.2 (37th)

Strength of schedule and other metrics do favor Kansas, which finished first in RPI, ninth in overall strength of schedule and had a stellar 21-3 record against the RPI top 100. Michigan State, by comparison, ranked 11th in the RPI, 79th in strength of schedule and went 12-4 against the RPI top 100. 

The gap between Kansas and Michigan State does narrow when looking at non-conference RPI. The Spartans were fourth, just behind the Jayhawks in third place. 

It also helps that Michigan State holds a head-to-head win over Kansas way back on Nov. 17. as Denzel Valentine recorded a triple-double with 29 points, 12 assists and 12 rebounds for the Spartans. 

Both teams are talented, coached by two of the best in the nation and have what it takes to win six straight games in March. Michigan State's resume and overall body of work is a pinch better than Kansas', giving it an edge in the national title race. 

Sleeper: Cincinnati Bearcats

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Even though Cincinnati has had early NCAA tournament exits in each of the last three years, head coach Mick Cronin has done a stellar job of maintaining a level of consistency with this program since he took over in 2006. 

The Bearcats haven't made it out of the first weekend since making a run to the Sweet 16 in 2012, when they lost to Ohio State. This is certainly not Cronin's sexiest team to watch, but it might be his best group to piece together a good tournament run. 

Peter Keating and Jordan Brenner of ESPN.com devised a formula for their Giant Killers blog that uses a statistical method to find similar teams that a current one compares to and how those groups fared in previous NCAA tournaments. 

Here's what Keating and Brenner found out about Cincinnati:

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Usually, our similar teams method agrees with how our statistical model assesses Killers’ chances to pull off upsets. But similarity can go deeper, by suggesting a likely range of results. For example, the five teams most similar to Cincinnati (GK Rating: 50.6): Old Dominion, 2010 (upset sixth-seeded Notre Dame, 51-50); Wichita State, 2015 (upset No. 2 Kansas in the second round, 78-65); Wichita State, 2013 (reached the Final Four as a No. 9 seed, upsetting No. 1 Gonzaga and No. 2 Ohio State along the way); Clemson, 2011 (lost to fifth-seeded West Virginia, 84-76); San Diego State, 2010 (lost to sixth-seeded Tennessee, 62-59).

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It's certainly not a fool-proof method that guarantees Cincinnati will be making a profound statement when games start this week, but this team can wear opponents out because its defense is so good. 

Cronin's team is one of the best defensive groups in the nation, ranking seventh in points allowed (61.5) and efficiency (92.1). That comes in handy for a team not in a rush to light up the scoreboard. It's a very deliberate, calculated style designed to frustrate opponents more than anything else. 

Eventually, the Bearcats' inability to score in bunches will catch up them. For at least the first weekend, though, they will be a dangerous matchup for anyone. 

RPI stats per ESPN.com.

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