How Far Can Real Madrid Realistically Go in 2015/16?
Real Madrid effectively have one competition to play for this season.
They are 12 points adrift of top spot in La Liga, and the Copa del Rey was an unmitigated disaster, but Los Blancos qualified for the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals this week—along with SL Benfica, Paris Saint-Germain and VfL Wolfsburg.
In little to no danger of losing their automatic qualification spot in Spain, Zinedine Zidane's men are caught between resting in the league to conserve their resources and wanting to give their massive worldwide supporters their best in La Liga.
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Madrid, in a more perfect world, should do both, but if the choice is finish second to Barcelona in the league and get knocked out of the Champions League in the quarter-finals, or finish third in the league and reach the UCL final at Milan's San Siro, most (upwards of 99.9 percent) would choose the latter.
The question then becomes: Can Real Madrid, as presently constituted, reach the Champions League final?
Undefeated in the competition, with a record of 7W-0L-1D—and goal difference of 20—the early stages of the world's most prestigious club cup trophy have been a relative cakewalk.
Entering the last eight, however, the cream usually rises. Should Madrid avoid the likes Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, their chances of reaching the semi-finals increase exponentially. They have reached at least the semi-finals five times in the past five seasons—doing so again is not impossible, just improbable.
Zidane's primary objective is nursing his squad back to health. Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale and Karim Benzema have sporadically played as an attacking trident this season. If they can get all three members of the trio fit, the lottery that is knockout football becomes easier to navigate.
This boils back down to the mindset Madrid take with La Liga.
With 10 matches left to parse, there are not many challenging games left on their schedule. Excluding El Clasico on April 2, hosting Sevilla, Villarreal and Valencia at the Santiago Bernabeu are their toughest matches—the only clubs they lost to at home all year are the two teams above them in La Liga (Barca and Atletico Madrid).
At the mercy of UEFA's Champions League draw, Zidane's club must prepare for the worst-case scenarios while fine-tuning their players' cohesion.
You cannot risk getting an easy quarter-final match, they must prepare as if for two legs with Barcelona are coming. Getting all five facets of their squad on same page during "lesser" La Liga matches, where Real Madrid have the capability of positing any scoreline you want, should help that mission.
A 4-0 aggregate scoreline against Roma was rather flattering. The Italian side created chances, but they just were not clinical enough. The deeper one goes into the Champions League, the more punitive mistakes become, as your opponent's quality is either level or greater than your own.
If we are looking for realism, a third-place finish behind Barca and Atleti would be a decent end to the La Liga season after sacking your original manager halfway through the season.
In the Champions League, it all depends on spinning balls in pots.
A semi-final berth seems the extent of where the Spanish giants can go, with Barcelona and Bayern Munich on the loose, but if those two superclubs meet before the final, Real Madrid supporters could easily be booking flights to Milan on May 28.
*Stats via WhoScored.com; transfer fees via Soccerbase where not noted.
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