March Madness 2016 Bracket: Early Projections for Top 4 Seeds

March Madness is more fun when enhanced parity honors the NCAA tournament's nickname. Narrowing down the bubble teams gives the selection committee enough trouble, but it'll also have tough decisions to make at the top when assembling this year's bracket.

Last year, Kentucky stood out as an obvious No. 1 seed and the pick to win the whole shebang. This time around, no clear front-runner exists. ESPN's Jay Bilas offered an unflattering take on the top tier of tournament contenders:

As a result, the bracket's four No. 1 seeds remain unsettled a week before the tournament commences. Outside of one near-lock, nobody can feel confident about headlining a quadrant.

While one or two games shouldn't override an entire season of work, the conference tournaments could settle the score among a tightly contested crop of No. 1-seed hopefuls. Following this regular season, these four teams have paths to earning top designations.

Projected No. 1 Seeds

Kansas

Orlin Wagner/Associated Press

Iowa State pushed Kansas to the limit on Saturday, but the Jayhawks improved to 27-4 with a 85-78 win, securing their 11th straight victory and a perfect home record. A sensational finish has them entering the Big 12 tournament as the top dog in all of college hoops.

Even if they suffer a conference tournament mishap, they're the safest choice to lock down a No. 1 seed. They're positioned atop of the latest AP poll and RPI. KenPom.com is much more bearish on their success, positioning them a measly No. 2 behind Virginia. 

No team has accumulated more victories against the RPI top 25 than Kansas, who has gone 9-3 against those elite competitors and 5-0 against clubs ranked Nos. 26-50. Led by senior Perry Ellis, the Jayhawks have outscored opponents by 14 points per game.

Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg doesn't think anyone comes close to Kansas for college basketball's throne:

Head coach Bill Self, however, wouldn't discredit the competition. Instead, he stated the importance of keeping up with the deep crop of contenders to the Kansas City Star's Sam Mellinger:

"

The margin for error is less. You talk about (college basketball) being wide-open, so it’s less. The reality of it is, I couldn’t be more confidence [sic] about these guys moving forward. But the energy level we had defensively the first half, that may be enough to go home disappointed.

"

Even if there's no consensus favorite, expect Kansas to stand out as the safest pick to win it all.

Michigan State

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

One point. Michigan State only endured five losses, and the last three each came by one puny point. A few unfavorable bounces are all that separate the Spartans from a 29-2 record, a 13-game winning streak and the No. 1 national rank.

After Kansas, nobody is a sure bet to solidify a No. 1 seed. ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi has the No. 2-ranked Spartans in a No. 2 slot, likely docking them for their No. 13 RPI ranking. They're 6-4 against the RPI top 50, but that includes a pair of single-point defeats and a triumph over Kansas.

Just keep them away from the Iowa Hawkeyes, who twice trounced the Spartans by double digits:

Date	OPP	RPI	Score
Dec. 29	Iowa	23	83-70
Jan. 14	Iowa	23	76-59
Jan. 17	Wisconsin	31	77-76
Feb. 9	Purdue	16	82-81

RPI seems alone in distrusting Michigan State, who rates No. 3 on KenPom.com with the best adjusted offense rating. Sports-Reference.com's Simple Rating System (SRS) tacks the Big Ten runner-up at No. 2 behind Kansas.

What's not to like about a team leading the NCAA in three-point percentage (43.9) and assists (652)? How about senior Denzel Valentine regularly flirting with a triple-double while garnering a plus-35.3 net rating?

While RPI is a useful metric, it's not the answer to all of life's unsolvable mysteries. Head coach Tom Izzo's Spartans deserve a top seed, and they should get one provided a solid conference tournament showing.

Virginia

Steve Helber/Associated Press

Selectors more keen on defense will flock to Virginia, who has limited the opposition to a stingy 59.6 points per game. It ended the tournament-exempt Louisville Cardinals' season on Saturday by stymieing them to a season-low 46 points.

The Cavaliers also have RPI's support, positioned No. 2 with a 9-2 mark against top-50 adversaries. They're narrowly above Kansas for KenPom.com's top spot, boasting top-10 efficiency on offense and defense. 

They have flourished against tough opponents, but they have also squandered games an elite program is expected to easily handle. Close road losses to Duke and Miami are forgivable. Falling earlier in the season to George Washington, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State—all of whom could miss the NCAA tournament altogether—is not as easy to overlook.

Luckily for them, the selection committee often succumbs to recency bias, and the Cavaliers closed the season strong. Jolted from those early upsets, they won 11 of their final 13 bouts, losing to Duke and Miami by one and three points, respectively.

Anyone boldly seeking a massive upset will target Virginia, who can become vulnerable to somebody challenging its snail-like tempo. Yet an ACC title would fortify Virginia's No. 1-seed standing.

Villanova

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

A late loss to No. 5 Xavier hindered Villanova's No. 1 chances, but the Musketeers promptly followed the huge victory by losing to Seton Hall. No. 6 Oklahoma—who stomped the Wildcats by 23 this season—has dropped four of its final nine encounters, leaving the door open for the Big East powerhouse to salvage a top spot.

In each of the last two years, Villanova entered with prominent seeding only to get eliminated in the round of 32. It won't affect the school's seeding, but it looms as a demon for head coach Jay Wright's club to exorcise.

"We don't want to be known as the team that's always high-ranked but gets knocked out of the tournament early," senior Daniel Ochefu told ESPN.com's Dana O'Neil two weeks ago. 

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Losses to the competition—the Wildcats also fell short against Virginia—should cause everyone not to advance Villanova too deep down the bracket. Yet shortcomings to fellow elite company tend to look better than upsets. Even if they're not the best, going 27-4 with the No. 3 RPI keeps the Wildcats in the hunt.

They hold the least-firm grasp of a No. 1 seed, especially since runners-up Oklahoma and Xavier boast head-to-head wins. The conference tournaments could provide some clarity, but Villanova gets the narrow edge—for now.

Note: Advanced statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.