NCAA Bracket 2016: Forecasting Potentially Epic First-Round Matchups

Folks don't have to turn back the calendar much to understand just how epic the first round of March Madness is most years.

Remember last year? The Northeastern Huskies almost took down the third-seeded Notre Dame Fighting Irish, the fourth-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels almost fell at the hands of the Harvard Crimson, the No. 14 Georgia State Panthers took down the Baylor Bears and the No. 14 UAB Blazers took down the Iowa State Cyclones—to name a few.

It goes on and on most years, but this bracket offering looks like it has the most potential of any in recent memory with how odd the season has been to date. There isn't a surefire power, the Kentucky Wildcats aren't steamrolling the nation and the No. 1 seeds have been in flux for months. 

Below, let's analyze some of the potential first-round matchups based on standings, how those in charge of making the bracket might place them and—of course—the potential entertainment value of each matchup.

2016 NCAA Tournament Schedule

Date	Round	Location(s)
March 15, 16	First Four	UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio)
March 17, 19	First/Second Rounds	Dunkin Donuts Center (Providence, R.I.); Wells Fargo Arena (Des Moines, Iowa); PNC Arena (Raleigh, N.C.); Pepsi Center (Denver)
March 18, 20	First/Second Rounds	Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.); Scottrade Center (St. Louis); Chesapeake Energy Arena (Oklahoma City); Spokane Arena (Spokane, Wash.)
March 24, 26	West Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	Honda Center (Anaheim, Calif.)
March 24, 26	South Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, Ky.)
March 25, 27	Midwest Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	United Center (Chicago)
March 25, 27	East Regional (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)	Wells Fargo Center (Philadelphia)
April 2	Final Four (Semifinals)	NRG Stadium (Houston)
April 4	Championship Game	NRG Stadium (Houston)

Forecasting Potential Noteworthy Matchups

Dayton vs. South Carolina 

John Minchillo/Associated Press

Talk about a strong potential matchup out of the South portion of the bracket when an Atlantic 10 power collides with one of the SEC's best teams.

The Dayton Flyers seem like a mainstay in the bracket this year and once again look set to appear in a strong slotting thanks to a rank of 19th in ESPN's RPI with a respectable 4-3 mark against the RPI top 50. Branch it out and the Flyers are 9-4 against the top 100.

Contrast that with the South Carolina Gamecocks, 46th in RPI with an 8-4 mark against the top 100, but with notable wins against the Vanderbilt Commodores, Texas A&M Aggies and SEC powers such as the LSU Tigers and Florida Gators.

This one has strong scoring outputs written all over it. The Gamecocks get 14.5 points per game and 42 percent shooting from beyond the arc from senior forward Michael Carrera, who would have to combat Dayton sophomore guard Charles Cooke, who averages 15.8 and 41 percent from deep. Both teams love to get out and run, and they come in at 35 percent clips from deep as a whole.

While the grand prize for moving on in this projected matchup would be an eventual date with a team such as the Virginia Cavaliers or Michigan State Spartans, building momentum in such a strong opening-round game would give the winner a serious edge.

While perhaps not the biggest names, these teams are battle-tested and shoot high percentages from deep, which is always a strong recipe for a classic. Expect those in charge of making the bracket to understand this.

Arizona vs. Michigan

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

There are few better things in college basketball than a potential collision between the Arizona Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines. 

The Wildcats have had another strong season, posting 12 wins in the deep Pac-12 to stand 26th in RPI with a stellar 15-7 mark against the top 100. Arizona boasts wins against the Oregon State Beavers, USC Trojans and California Golden Bears while only missing out on a second win against the latter two teams by a single point apiece.

While some might point out that Michigan is one of the more notable bubble teams around, sleeping on a team motivated by playing strong for injured senior Caris LeVert is never a wise move. The Wolverines are 67th in RPI with a 3-11 mark against the top 100, but funnily enough, they upended three top-25 RPI teams—so showing up in major games is certainly a trait.

Not that Arizona doesn't have the firepower to thwart a potential upset bid. Senior forward Ryan Anderson scores 15.8 points per game and senior guard Gabe York is right behind at an even 15, though as Anthony Gimino of the Tucson News pointed out, York has handled the load as of late:

March Madness veterans understand that emotion is an incredible motivator, so Michigan pulling for another major upset bid against pretty much anyone makes for an epic time in the bracket.

In this scenario it's Arizona, one of those teams looking capable of getting hot and putting on a serious run.

Wisconsin vs. Saint Joseph's

Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Here is another potential fun one from the South region when No. 8 and No. 9 seeds get together. 

The Wisconsin Badgers drummed up 12 wins in the Big Ten this year, sitting just two games off the conference lead and tallying a strong RPI of 31 with 11 wins against the top 100 despite a sixth-ranked strength of schedule.

It's a similar story for the Saint Joseph's Hawks in the Atlantic 10, as they grabbed 13 wins to finish one game shy of the conference lead. An RPI of 32 and five wins against the RPI top 100 is only diminished by an 88th-ranked strength of schedule.

Regardless, this looks like a fun one on paper because Saint Joseph's loves to get out and play strong defense. Wisconsin, to be blunt, is the perfect test. Not only do the Badgers shoot 36 percent from deep as a team, sophomore forward Nigel Hayes averages 16.1 points per game and sophomore guard Bronson Koenig posts 13.7 while shooting 41 percent from deep.

Wisconsin has been especially potent as of late after interim head coach Greg Gard decided to go back to a swing offense. Junior forward Vitto Brown cited the change as a reason for the uptick in production when he spoke with Jim Polzin of the Wisconsin State Journal.

“The offense is flowing better,” Brown said. “When they’re doubling in the post, our team is doing a good job of kicking it out to the perimeter and we’ve just been able to knock down shots.”

This is a potential pairing of opposing strengths that those in charge of the bracket hunt for each year, so as long as the two finish the season strong in tournaments, said strengths could collide.

Stats and information courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified. Advanced metrics courtesy of ESPN.