Cinderella Rankings for 2016 March Madness Hopefuls Ahead of Conference Tourneys

It takes a ticket to get into the NCAA tournament, but to get fitted for a glass slipper requires something extra.

Cinderella teams are part of what makes the NCAA tourney the greatest sporting event in the world, one that thrives on underdogs and unpredictability. Their official definition is fluid, but for the purposes of this discussion, we'll consider any team seeded ninth or lower (and not from a power conference) that manages to reach the Sweet 16 as one that's living a fairy tale experience.

They're also an unknown lot at this point, since the NCAA tournament field won't be announced until Sunday. All we can do is speculate, based on teams that have already earned a bid or are expected to do so this week.

Here's our ranking of the best Cinderella candidates, factoring in their recent play and chance of being able to pull off multiple upsets in the NCAA tournament.

NOTE: Projected tournament seeds are based on averages from brackets tracked by BracketMatrix.com.

8. The West Coast Champion

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The first batch of conference tournaments already provided numerous upsets, with no top seed reaching a final on Saturday or Sunday and every champion seeded fourth or worse. That should continue this upcoming week, and in most of those cases, the team that comes out with the automatic bid will end up with a pretty low NCAA tourney seed.

And then there's the West Coast Conference, where any of the four remaining teams has a legitimate shot to win the title, and each could parlay that into a run through the NCAA field. But because of the uncertainty as to who will win the West Coast, we can't pick a clear favorite and thus can't rank the conference champ any higher on this list.

St. Mary's (26-4) and Gonzaga (24-7) tied for the regular-season title, but St. Mary's got the No. 1 seed by virtue of a sweep of the Bulldogs. Third-seeded BYU (23-9) has wins over both teams, but it also lost to fourth-seeded Pepperdine (18-12), which swept St. Mary's and was swept by Gonzaga.

Any of those teams could be dangerous if they get in, and winning the West Coast is probably the only way for that to happen. Gonzaga has made the NCAA tournament for 17 straight years, one of the longest streaks in the country.

7. Arkansas-Little Rock

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Record: 27-4

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 12th

A year after going 13-18 overall and falling in the first round of the Sun Belt tournament, Arkansas-Little Rock blew away the field with a 17-3 conference record. First-year coach Chris Beard also piloted the Trojans to nonconference wins over San Diego State and Tulsa, using a methodical pace and an emphasis on defense that has frustrated opponents all season.

Little Rock ranks third nationally in scoring defense, at 59.8 points per game, and seventh in field-goal defense at 38.5 percent. It regularly plays nine guys, all of whom contribute at least three points and two rebounds per game, making it hard to identify any player to shut down.

The Sun Belt produced one of the biggest shockers of the 2015 NCAA tournament when conference champion Georgia State upset third-seeded Baylor. The Panthers then fell to Xavier in the third round.

6. Valparaiso

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Record: 26-5

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 11th

Bryce Drew has Valparaiso looking for its second straight Horizon League conference title and third trip to the NCAA tournament in four years, and maybe this time the Crusaders will be able to experience another run like in 1998. That's when Valpo made the Sweet 16, with Bryce hitting the game-winning three-pointer to knock off fourth-seeded Ole Miss in the first round.

The Crusaders came close to another upset last season, losing 65-62 to fourth-seeded Maryland, and their entire starting lineup is back from that squad. They won the Horizon by three games over Oakland and Wright State, one of whom will be its opponent in Tuesday's conference final, assuming Valpo can get past fourth-seeded Green Bay on Monday.

Valpo is the best team in Division I in terms of defensive rating, allowing 88.8 points per 100 possessions while holding opponents to 37.8 percent shooting and 61 points per game. The Crusaders have seven players scoring at least 6.6 points per game, with 6'9” junior forward Alec Peters pouring in 17.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per game on 50.3 percent shooting.

5. Yale

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Record: 22-6

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 13th

Yale clinched its first NCAA tournament bid since 1962 by winning the Ivy League's regular-season title on Saturday. Now the Bulldogs get the chance to terrorize some unsuspecting Power Five conference teams like past Ivy champions Cornell, Harvard and Princeton have done over the years.

Harvard pulled off upsets of No. 3 New Mexico in 2013 and No. 5 Cincinnati in 2014, while Cornell reached the Sweet 16 in 2010 as a No. 12 seed. And in 1989, Princeton came as close as any No. 16 seed to beating a No. 1, losing by one to Georgetown.

Yale has the makeup of a team that can make similar waves. One of the best defensive teams in the country, the Bulldogs allow 63.1 points per game and 40.7 percent shooting, with their three-point defense (31.6 percent) ranked 38th in Division I.

Sophomore guard Makai Mason and senior forward Justin Sears average 15.8 points per game, with senior forward Brandon Sherrod at 12.5 per game on 56.1 percent shooting. Earlier this season, he set the NCAA record with 30 consecutive made field goals.

4. Monmouth

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Record: 27-6

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 12th

The flashiest mid-major in the country goes for its first NCAA tourney bid since 2006 on Monday night when Monmouth faces Iona in a battle of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference's top two seeds. The teams split their regular-season meetings, each winning on the other's home court, and this will be the eighth time they've played in the past three years.

Assuming Monmouth can win the rubber match, it will get a chance to add to an already impressive list of big-name conquests in 2015-16. Earlier this year, the Hawks won at UCLA, Georgetown and Rutgers and also knocked off USC and Notre Dame at the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando.

Junior guard Justin Robinson averaged 19.8 points per game against Monmouth's six power opponents, matching his season average, but Monmouth has other guards to worry about, such as senior Deon Jones and freshman Micah Seaborn.

Coach King Rice, in his fifth season, made the Sweet 16 or better in all four of his seasons as a player at North Carolina from 1988-91.

3. San Diego State

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Record: 23-8

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 12th

San Diego State has made the NCAA tournament six straight seasons, winning at least one game in four of the last five years and advancing to the Sweet 16 twice. But each of those runs came as a No. 4 seed or better, the product of the Aztecs faring well both in the Mountain West Conference and in non-league play.

This season SDSU only has its Mountain West dominance to cling to, as its RPI of 42 and lack of quality wins make winning its conference tourney the only sure way to get into another NCAA field. The Aztecs went 16-2 in league play, three games ahead of second-place Fresno State.

If SDSU can run the table this weekend in Las Vegas, it will get to tap into a wealth of NCAA experience on its roster. Several players return from the 2014-15 team that lost to eventual national champion Duke in the third round, and senior forwards Winston Shepard and Skylar Spencer started for the Aztecs during their Sweet 16 push in 2013-14.

There's also coach Steve Fisher, who has a national title at Michigan under his belt and is SDSU's all-time wins leader.

2. Northern Iowa

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Record: 22-12

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 12th

Northern Iowa wrapped up a second straight Missouri Valley conference tournament title on Sunday, with Wes Washpun's jumper at the buzzer giving the fourth-seeded Panthers a 56-54 win over Evansville. Their third win this season over Evansville was the most thrilling of the lot but far from the most impressive overall in 2015-16.

The Panthers knocked off then-No. 1 North Carolina in November and then-unbeaten Iowa State in December, and to get to the Missouri Valley final, they had to beat regular-season champion Wichita State for the second time this year.

All told, they're 8-3 against top-100 RPI teams, a performance made all the more mind-boggling when seeing Northern Iowa lost nine times to teams rated 119th or worse, including three teams in the 200s.

Northern Iowa reached the third round of the 2015 NCAA tourney as a No. 5 seed, beating Wyoming and then falling to Louisville. Washpun is one of several key players who were part of that team, which, like the current version, prides itself on defense and taking care of the ball.

The Panthers rank 15th nationally in scoring defense, and they turn the ball over fewer than 10 times per game.

1. VCU

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Record: 22-9

Projected NCAA tournament seed: 11th

Will Wade is in his first year running VCU's program, but he's no stranger to being part of a Cinderella story. He was part of Shaka Smart's staff in 2011 when the 11th-seeded Rams went from the First Four to the Final Four.

VCU hopes it doesn't end up in the First Four again, preferring to get in automatically as the Atlantic 10 champion like it did last season. The Rams are seeded second, playing either Rhode Island or Massachusetts in Friday's A-10 quarterfinals, and after that they could face St. Bonaventure and then either Dayton or Saint Joseph's.

It's going to be tough for VCU to make it through that field to get the auto bid, but a few victories could ensure they not only grab an at-large spot, but also one that doesn't require starting in Dayton like in 2011. Though, wherever it starts, the Rams aren't going to be considered a normal double-digit seed.

Juniors Mo Alie-Cox and JeQuan Lewis started for VCU during last year's NCAA tournament appearance, while 2015-16 leading scorer Melvin Johnson was a key reserve as a junior.

Statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.