The Complete Guide to UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz
When Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz meet in the main event of UFC 196 on Saturday night in Las Vegas, a belt won't be at stake. The fight will take place, strangely enough, at 170 pounds, which is outside both fighters' normal weight. Diaz is on a meager one-fight winning streak, while McGregor is the champion at 145 pounds.
No, what's at stake here are bragging rights and the prospect of an all-timer of a scrap. The two men put on one of the most entertaining press conferences (warning: NSFW language) in the history of the sport after Diaz agreed to step up on short notice to replace injured lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos.
It's hard to overstate how compelling the stylistic and personality matchup is here, and it's definitely the selling point for the entire card. The co-main event, however, is also compelling, as newly crowned women's bantamweight champion Holly Holm faces perennial contender Miesha Tate in an excellent matchup. A potential shot at a returning Ronda Rousey and one of the biggest paydays in the history of MMA is at stake.
The rest of the card isn't outstanding, but it does feature sneaky-entertaining fights. An outstanding women's bantamweight matchup between talented strikers Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko opens the main card, while Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada should produce violence on Fox Sports 1. In addition, veterans Jim Miller and Diego Sanchez will headline the Fight Pass portion of the event.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
1 of 7
Featherweights
Julian Erosa (15-2; 1-0 UFC) vs. Teruto Ishihara (7-2-2; 0-0-1 UFC)
The evening's opener features a solid clash of featherweight prospects when Washington state's Erosa takes on Japan's Ishihara. Erosa was a semifinalist on the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter and defeated Marcin Wrzosek at the finale in December, while Ishihara drew with Mizuto Hirota in the final of the UFC's Road to UFC: Japan series last September.
The American is a rangy outside fighter who uses every inch of his 6'1" frame. Long front kicks and jabs create space for constant movement, and he has some pop in his punching combinations. Solid takedown defense and a nice front headlock game make him a threat on the ground as well.
Ishihara is mostly a striker with explosive combinations, clean counters and good power, all backed up by strong takedown defense.
Defense is neither fighter's strong suit, and both like to work at a quick pace, so this has the makings of a fun, violent scrap contested mostly on the feet. Erosa is the favorite at minus-200, and his six-inch height advantage and tendency to fight long should give him the edge. The American takes a decision.
Lightweights
Jason Saggo (10-2; 1-1 UFC) vs. Justin Salas (12-6; 3-3 UFC)
Two lightweights who are coming off long layoffs meet in a solid matchup. Canada's Saggo dropped a close decision to Paul Felder in October 2014, while the American Salas was on the wrong end of a Joe Proctor punch in July 2014. Both are staring a pink slip in the face and desperately need a win here to cement their position in the UFC.
Saggo is well-rounded and does everything well, with solid wrestling chops, slick grappling and professional muay thai experience on the feet. Salas is a wrestler by trade but is also a crisp and potent combination puncher from the southpaw stance on the feet.
If Saggo can get this to the mat, he should have a substantial edge, and Salas' takedown defense isn't impenetrable. Saggo takes a decision.
Lightweights
Jim Miller (25-7, 1 N/C; 14-6, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Diego Sanchez (25-8; 14-8 UFC)
A pair of lightweight veterans meet in an excellent matchup atop the Fight Pass prelims. Sanchez returns to 155 pounds following a brief dalliance with featherweight, where he dropped a clear decision to Ricardo Lamas. The loss dropped Sanchez to a meager 4-6 in his last 10 fights, and what's worse is that two of those wins were absolute robberies and a third was controversial.
He's simply not the fighter he once was.
Miller has also been on a rough run of late with only one victory in his last four fights. Michael Chiesa submitted him in December, and a split decision over Danny Castillo snapped a two-fight losing streak before that.
It's unlikely that either fighter will be cut with a loss, but there's nothing positive on the horizon for the declining Sanchez. If Miller wins, he will buy himself more time in the competitive lightweight division.
Sanchez has added some veteran craft to his game but is mostly the same guy he has always been. The southpaw is a surprising counterpuncher and a strong kicker who relies heavily on brawling exchanges in which his head stays smack dab on the center line. His wrestling isn't as effective as it once was, but he's a slick and technically sound grappler.
Miller is a dangerous fighter with skills everywhere. The southpaw strikes with technical skill and some power, is a solid offensive but somewhat lacking defensive wrestler and hunts aggressively for submissions on the mat.
It's hard to see this as anything other than a referendum on where each fighter is at this stage of his career. This could easily turn into a 50-50 brawl on the feet, but on the mat Miller is more aggressive and likely better in scrambles, which tilts the balance in his favor. Miller takes a close decision.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
2 of 7
Featherweights
Chas Skelly (15-1; 4-1 UFC) vs. Darren Elkins (19-5; 8-4 UFC)
Indiana's Elkins has been a fixture of the bottom of the featherweight Top 15 for years now, and the rising Skelly is looking to take his place. Skelly has won four in a row—three of them inside the distance—since dropping his debut to uber-prospect Mirsad Bektic almost two years ago. Elkins, a longtime veteran, has alternated wins and losses in his last six. He defeated Rob Whiteford last October.
Skelly is a wrestler and grappler by trade, but he's also improving on the feet. The clinch is his wheelhouse with both strikes and takedowns, and he's dangerous on the mat, where he excels at getting to the back. Elkins is a grinder par excellence, with a relentless assault of takedowns and head pressure in the clinch against the fence. Striking isn't his strong suit, and he isn't powerful, but he can take a great punch.
This is a tight matchup. Elkins' cardio is endless, and he's exceptionally durable, but Skelly is bigger and more dynamic and can compete in Elkins' preferred areas of operation. This will probably be slow-paced, and most of it will take place against the fence, and in that scenario Skelly takes a tight decision.
Middleweights
Vitor Miranda (11-4; 2-1 UFC) vs. Marcelo Guimaraes (9-1-1; 2-1 UFC)
Guimaraes returns from an absence of 20 months, when he defeated Andy Enz, to face Miranda, The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 contestant. Miranda has won two in a row, both by knockout. This isn't an elite middleweight matchup, but it could be fun, and both fighters have the potential for violence.
Miranda has high-level kickboxing experience, and that's the basis of his game. A crisp jab, clean combinations and decent takedown defense are his bread and butter. Guimaraes is a powerful wrestler and has some pop in his strikes, but he doesn't really stand out anywhere.
While Guimaraes has the advantage on the mat and should win if he can get it there, the combination of the layoff and Miranda's vastly superior striking skills should be the difference. Miranda scores a knockout in the second round.
Welterweights
Erick Silva (18-6, 1 N/C; 6-5 UFC) vs. Nordine Taleb (11-3; 3-1 UFC)
Former top prospect Silva looks to rebound from last August's decision loss to Neil Magny against Taleb, who tapped to a Warlley Alves guillotine in the same month. It's now or never for Silva to stamp himself as anything other than an action fighter, while Taleb seems to be settling into the role of a reliable gatekeeper.
Silva is lethal everywhere, and it's unlikely that he has become less so by spending this camp with Kings MMA impresario Rafael Cordeiro. Brutal power packs every overhand and spinning strike he throws on the feet, but he doesn't utilize enough volume. Explosive clinch takedowns and a technically sound, aggressive grappling game are likely his best assets.
Taleb is solid and well-rounded. He's a clean and competent striker, wrestles well and knows what he's doing on top. He won't set the world on fire anywhere, though, and isn't an exceptional athlete.
This is the more athletic and dynamic Silva's fight to lose. He finds a submission in the first round.
Welterweights
Brandon Thatch (11-3; 2-2 UFC) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (21-6-1; 1-2 UFC)
A crackling welterweight matchup headlines the Fox Sports 1 card. Colorado's Thatch was a touted prospect but ran into a rough patch with consecutive losses against former lightweight champion Benson Henderson and a choking at the hands of Gunnar Nelson in July. Bahadurzada, a native of Afghanistan, has been out of action since losses to Dong Hyun Kim and John Howard more than two years ago.
It's unlikely the UFC would cut a fighter as talented as Thatch with a loss, but he would be in enormous trouble, while Bahadurzada is sure to receive a pink slip if he falls short here.
Thatch stands an enormous 6'2" with reach to spare, and his size and physicality form the basis of his game. Constant stance switching and a rangy jab from both orthodox and southpaw keep his opponents outside their distance as Thatch aggressively pressures; he then picks his spots to commit to powerful punching combinations punctuated with vicious kicks or knees.
Slick trips add some variety, and he's vicious with his strikes in the clinch. On the downside, his excellent takedown defense has to disguise his limited bottom game and defensive grappling skills.
Bahadurzada is a dangerous slugger. He packs brutal power in both hands and boasts a surprising amount of craft in his striking game, utilizing a tricky rhythm, clean counters and a good sense for when to sit down and drop three to five punches in combination. The clinch is a strong suit, but his takedown defense is porous, and he offers little on the mat.
While the American is a vastly superior athlete and boasts an enormous size advantage that he uses well, he's too hittable, and Bahadurzada too powerful, for this to be a completely one-sided matchup. Still, Thatch should overcome a few dangerous moments to outwork Bahadurzada at range and in the clinch. Thatch takes a decision.
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko
3 of 7
Women's Bantamweights
Amanda Nunes (11-4; 4-1 UFC) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (12-1; 1-0 UFC)
The main card opens with a crackerjack of a women's bantamweight matchup as Brazil's Nunes takes on Kyrgyzstan's (by way of Peru and Thailand) Shevchenko in what could well be a No. 1 contender matchup.
Nunes' only loss in the UFC came against title contender Cat Zingano, and she has since finished Shayna Baszler and Sara McMann in the first round. Shevchenko, a highly credentialed kickboxer, debuted with an impressive short-notice win over Sarah Kaufman in December.
The Brazilian is one of the most promising up-and-comers in the division. Now training out of American Top Team, she has increasingly harnessed her great natural athleticism, explosiveness and power to a more refined technical game in every phase.
Striking is Nunes' wheelhouse. She's quick and light on her feet, boasting clean circular movement and tight footwork. Brutal low kicks and active feints occupy her opponent at range, and Nunes then picks her spots to explode forward into fight-ending punching combinations. Counters are increasingly a specialty as Nunes' innate speed advantage becomes more intertwined with better skills.
While she formerly relied on her prodigious athleticism to defend takedowns, Nunes has drastically improved her balance in the clinch, sprawl and head pressure against single legs. When the mood strikes, she hits smooth trips in the clinch, and she is a monster ground striker from the top. In fact, top control might be her single best skill set.
The real question with Nunes is whether she can maintain her pace throughout the fight. She's a killer early, but the later rounds have historically been a problem for her, and we don't know yet whether her gas tank has improved.
Shevchenko is an accomplished kickboxer with a slick striking arsenal. Her work at range is everything you would expect from someone with world-champion credentials, including hard left kicks and smooth punching combinations from her southpaw stance. Counters are a specialty, and while she's not the most powerful striker, she is efficient and technical.
As good as she is at range, Shevchenko is even better in the clinch. She's a master of sport in judo and is well-known in muay thai for her exceptional clinch game, with a strong arsenal of trips and throws. That base also gives her strong takedown defense. From the top, she's mostly content to control and take a breather while breaking her opponent's rhythm.
Betting Odds
Nunes -150, Shevchenko +130
Prediction
This is a razor-thin fight, and there are good arguments to be made for both fighters. Shevchenko is the more accomplished striker and undoubtedly has more depth of skill at range, and she's a dominating clinch fighter as well. Nunes is much more physically gifted, hits harder and is likely a better grappler in general. If she can get Shevchenko down, the fight is as good as over once Nunes starts dropping bombs.
The question is whether Nunes can get Shevchenko down and whether she can land shots on the more experienced striker. That explosiveness and physicality should be the difference, as Nunes takes a tight decision.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor
4 of 7
Light Heavyweights
Corey Anderson (7-1; 4-1 UFC) vs. Tom Lawlor (10-5, 1 N/C; 6-4 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter 19 winner Anderson returns to action against Lawlor in a solid light heavyweight matchup. Lawlor returned from an absence of more than two years to knock out Gian Villante in July, while Anderson has won two in a row against Jan Blachowicz and Fabio Maldonado since his own loss to Villante last April.
This is clearly a holding-pattern fight for Anderson, the most promising young fighter in the division, to give him more time to develop. Light heavyweight is thin and in desperate need of new blood, and Lawlor is a solid but limited fighter who can test Anderson in specific ways without being too overpowering.
Lawlor is solid everywhere. The southpaw packs real power in his hands on the feet and has a particularly nice counter right hook. He doesn't throw much volume, though, and isn't particularly defensively sound.
He's better in the clinch, where his physicality and strength come into play. Lawlor excels at grinding away against the fence with head pressure and an underhook, and he has a strong arsenal of takedowns to go along with solid takedown defense. The front headlock is a specialty, and he has a slick guillotine in transition.
Anderson is a serious talent with a great deal of room to grow. The former wrestler is improving rapidly as a striker under the tutelage of Mark Henry, Frankie Edgar's longtime boxing coach, and it shows in his smooth circular movement and quick-paced punch-kick combinations. Volume is his strongest suit, and he works head, body and legs together in a single sequence.
The TUF winner is still a bit raw, and his combinations are more hard-wired than organic. This lack of experience shows up most clearly in his defense, which is porous and not difficult for opponents to figure out, which makes him quite hittable.
Constant output wears Anderson's opponents over the course of the fight and creates opportunities for him to push into the more developed facets of his game. While he can win fights at range, the clinch is Anderson's wheelhouse, where his 6'3" frame gives him great leverage. Dirty boxing is a forte, and he excels at grinding against the fence.
Anderson isn't an explosive finisher of takedowns, but he does have well-timed entries and technically sound chains of singles, doubles and trips. Once he gets in on the hips, he's hard to shake off. From top position, he maintains the same exhausting pace he does on the feet, and he drops bombs once he gets his posture.
Betting Odds
Anderson -290, Lawlor +245
Prediction
Anderson should probably be an even bigger favorite here. He's the better wrestler, at least as good (if not better) in the clinch and a much more active striker at range. Unless Lawlor can land a fight-ending shot on the feet or find a guillotine in transition, Anderson is going to grind him out for all three rounds or even finish late. Anderson takes a decision.
Gian Villante vs. Ilir Latifi
5 of 7
Light Heavyweights
Gian Villante (14-6; 4-3 UFC) vs. Ilir Latifi (11-4, 1 N/C; 4-2 UFC)
Sweden's Latifi takes on Long Island's Villante in a fun matchup at 205 pounds. Latifi has finished all four of his UFC wins inside the first round, most recently knocking out Hans Stringer and Sean O'Connell inside a minute. Villante rebounded from a knockout loss to Lawlor by sending the veteran Anthony Perosh into retirement with a punch last November.
Neither fighter is likely to challenge for a title, but both are hanging around the fringes of the Top 10 and could potentially rise a bit higher with a win here.
Villante is a banger with some technical skill. He isn't particularly fast on his feet, but he does have substantial power and a good deal of craft. Smooth punch-kick combinations are his bread and butter, and he's particularly good at timing his sharp low kicks. Volume is a strong suit, and he's constantly working, but he's seriously hittable and relies too much on his durability.
Takedown defense is Villante's forte. He's nearly impossible to get to the mat and can hit the occasional double of his own when the mood strikes. Setting up takedowns isn't his best facet, however, and he has a bad habit of shooting from too far outside.
Latifi is a physical powerhouse who makes up for his lack of height (he stands only 5'8") with great explosiveness and ridiculous strength. He packs serious power in both hands and has good timing on his counters, but he doesn't have many long-range tools and is vulnerable to getting stuck outside.
An accomplished wrestler, Latifi has both strong takedown defense and slick takedowns of his own on both shots and in the clinch. From top position, he's a brutal ground striker, and he has a nice front headlock game in transition as well.
Betting Odds
Latifi -210, Villante +175
Prediction
If Villante were less hittable and Latifi less powerful, the Swede would likely end up stuck on the end of the taller fighter's punches and kicks all night. Villante's bad habit of leaving himself there to be hit is a big problem against someone as explosive and powerful as Latifi, though. The Swede finds a knockout in the first round.
Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate
6 of 7
Women's Bantamweight Championship
Holly Holm (10-0; 3-0 UFC) vs. Miesha Tate (17-5; 4-2 UFC)
Newly minted champion Holm meets perennial contender Tate in a crackling matchup for the women's bantamweight strap.
This is a somewhat risky fight for Holm with the prospect of a huge-money rematch with Rousey, which would undeniably be one of the biggest fights in MMA history, looming in the future. It's a credit to Holm's confidence and the possibility that Rousey never fights again to line up a serious opponent in Tate for the former boxing champion's first title defense.
Tate opened her UFC career inauspiciously, losing inside the distance first to Cat Zingano and then to Rousey herself in December 2013. Since then, the Washington native has won four in a row, including wins over former title challengers Sara McMann and Liz Carmouche. It's hard to imagine a more deserving top contender in a relatively thin division.
If Rousey does return at some point in 2016, the winner of this bout will be set up for an enormous payday and an unprecedented amount of media exposure. It's a heady prize awaiting the victor in what should be an excellent fight.
Holm is the quintessential outside fighter. She puts her 5'8" frame to good use with a rangy arsenal of front, side and round kicks, and her southpaw stance accentuates her preferred long distance. Operating at that range opens up space to circle and cut angles at will, and she picks her spots to explode forward into combinations consisting of flashing hands and then a vicious round kick.
As a boxer, the straight left was the centerpiece of Holm's arsenal, and it's still her go-to punch. She fires it early and often but usually has to throw herself forward into the motion to get real power behind it. That wasn't the case when she fought Rousey, but the former champion provided most of the momentum in those collisions.
The occasional right hook and a pawing jab add some variety, but for the most part Holm relies on the combination of the straight left, left round kick and a few left knees.
Those three things together serve to move her opponent's hands and head and open up opportunities. Slipping to avoid the straight left opens the high kick; keeping the hands high to block the high kick or parry the straight creates an opening for the kick to the body; keeping the head on the center line opens up the straight left; and so on. It's a lethal combination for a striker as experienced and technically sound as Holm.
It's hard to overstate how good Holm's footwork and timing are. She has an excellent sense of where she is in the cage and how far away her opponent is, which allows her to cut tight angles and pick her spots to sit down on her punches.
The rest of Holm's game exists to keep her standing and throwing punches. She's happy to dive forward into the clinch if she overshoots at range, and her height gives her great leverage. Takedown defense is a strong suit as well. While we don't know much about Holm as a grappler, she seems at least defensively sound.
Tate is well-rounded, experienced, smart and above all durable. Nobody will confuse her with a former boxing champion like Holm, but she has deceptive footwork that serves to cut off her opponent, find angles and bring her close enough to land shots or shoot takedowns. There's real power in her right hand as well. Active feints create openings and confuse her opponents.
While she's competent at range, the real meat of Tate's game lies in wrestling and grappling. She does a good job of punching her way into the clinch, where she has nice body-lock takedowns, and using strikes to cover the entries for her shot takedowns. More relentless than authoritative, it usually takes Tate a few shots and then chains to get her opponent to the mat.
Once she finds top position, Tate really goes to work. She has an excellent base and is difficult to shake off, and she combines smooth passes with hard ground strikes and the occasional topside submission.
Thinking about Tate solely in terms of skills undersells her substantially. She takes a great punch and adapts as the fight goes on. Any opening her opponent gives her—a slip, misjudged strike or defensive lapse—is sure to be exploited. These things make Tate far more difficult to deal with than her lack of athleticism or an elite skill set might suggest.
Betting Odds
Holm -345, Tate +285
Prediction
This is Holm's fight to lose. She's bigger, more athletic, rangier, likes fights at a long distance where Tate has little to offer and is a good enough defensive wrestler to keep this on the feet. From that perspective, the matchup is straightforward.
That perspective undersells just how relentless and tough Tate is, though. Eventually, Holm will make some kind of mistake, and when she does, Tate will pounce and either land a big shot or work her way to top position. If Holm panics or makes enough mistakes, it's easy to see her losing rounds, if not succumbing to a finish.
The balance of likelihood points in Holm's direction, but it's hardly a lost cause for Tate. Holm takes a 49-46 decision.
Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz
7 of 7
Welterweights
Conor McGregor (19-2; 7-0 UFC) vs. Nate Diaz (18-10; 13-8 UFC)
While there's no belt on the line in UFC 196's main event, we still have an outstanding scrap on our hands. The inimitable Diaz agreed to step up on short notice to face McGregor in return for, as he put it, "a f--kload of money" (warning: NSFW language).
The fight will take place at welterweight, where Diaz went 2-2 in a four-fight run in 2010 and 2011. McGregor has never fought that high in weight, though he has previously competed at lightweight, where he won a title in the Cage Warriors organization.
This fight doesn't have the stakes of McGregor's scheduled matchup with Rafael dos Anjos, which would have been the first matchup of reigning champions since Georges St-Pierre fought BJ Penn all the way back in 2009.
It's undeniably fun, however, and both fighters come into the bout in a good place. McGregor has won all seven of his UFC outings, while Diaz got back on track with an entertaining win over Michael Johnson in December.
If Diaz wins, this would validate his entire career and set him up for big-money fights in the future. For McGregor, a win means a payday, while in a loss he could point to the short notice and weight disparity. Either way, there's no possibility that it can be anything but a crackling, high-energy matchup of action fighters.
McGregor is a devastating southpaw striker. The straight left is the centerpiece of his entire game, and he throws it early and often with a great deal of craft and diversity of approach. He might use it as a lead, lunging forward as he stalks his opponent, following a distracting lead hand or pawing jab and, most devastatingly, as a counter.
The left packs enormous, fight-ending power in every shot, and everything in his game is designed to allow him to plant it on the opponent's chin. Smooth and diverse footwork creates opportunities both to pressure his opponent toward the fence and to land counters as he backs up, with a particular preference for stepping off to an angle and hitting an opponent across the plane of their body.
The kicking game we've seen from McGregor in recent years also helps to implement the straight left. The spinning kicks serve to corral opponents who attempt to circle away from his power hand, and the front kicks to the body draw their hands away from their head and force them back toward the fence. The left round kick catches them when they try to slip off the center line to avoid the straight left.
McGregor isn't a defensive mastermind and tends to rely on his chin and command of distance to avoid his opponent's shots. The rapid pace at which he works also guarantees that he'll eat a fair number of shots.
The rest of McGregor's game seems solid in what little we've seen of it. He struggled a bit with takedown defense against Chad Mendes but has been excellent otherwise, and he excels at scrambling back to his feet.
The clinch has never been a problem for him, and when the mood strikes he can hit a nice double-overhooks throw or a well-timed double. On top he passes smoothly and is a bombing ground striker.
Boxing is Diaz's wheelhouse. The rangy southpaw has often been lumped together with his brother Nick, but in actuality he is a much different fighter. Where Nick relies entirely on pressure, Nate does his best work in the middle of the cage; where Nick drops long head-body combinations against the fence, Nate cracks away with a steady diet of jabs and one-twos in space.
A piercing jab and snapping straight left make up the core of Diaz's approach. He feels out the distance with his lead hand, bringing his head over his lead leg, and then fires off a straight left if his opponent doesn't return fire. If he does commit, Diaz pulls his head back and drops a smooth right hook counter. It's a straightforward sequence, but it's Diaz's bread and butter, and it's shockingly effective.
While he doesn't get enough credit for his craft, Diaz's ability to play with rhythm and distance shows what an excellent striker he is. He taps away with the jab and then picks his spots to commit to a snapping punch. When he settles into a groove, as he almost always does, few opponents can keep pace.
On the downside, Diaz has always been hittable, his footwork isn't perfect, and he's vulnerable to strong kickers, though less so than he has been in the past.
As good as he is on the feet, Diaz might be better on the mat. His guard is active and dangerous, with smooth triangle-armbar-omoplata-sweep chains and a variety of setups. He's lethal in scrambles as well, with a nasty guillotine and back-take game. Smooth passes and a heavy base make him a threat on top when he gets there.
Sneaky trips and throws in the clinch along with hard knees make Diaz a more imposing inside fighter than his lanky frame might suggest. He isn't great at defending takedowns, though, and strong top players can give him fits.
Betting Odds
McGregor -460, Diaz +410
Prediction
This is an unpredictable matchup and closer than the betting lines indicate. While Diaz is taking the fight on short notice, he's never out of shape, and the fact he won't have to cut much weight means that won't be as much of a problem as it could have been.
The rangy Diaz could give McGregor real problems. This will be the first time in his UFC career that McGregor has conceded a substantial amount of height and reach; Max Holloway was a bit taller, and Dustin Poirier was the same size, but otherwise McGregor has had the edge on everyone he's fought.
The fact that Diaz is a southpaw with an active lead hand is also troublesome for McGregor. The Irishman doesn't use his jab much, and it's easy to see a scenario in which Diaz sticks McGregor on the outside with the one-two for substantial periods.
In the end, however, McGregor has much smoother footwork, is the more diverse striker, hits much harder and should be able to match Diaz's pace. The Stockton, California, native doesn't have the overpowering takedown game necessary to put the fight on the floor, where he'd have a real edge, and on the feet McGregor's power and craft should tell.
It won't be a one-sided beating, but McGregor takes a decision.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
