2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

The Kansas Jayhawks have won 10 consecutive games and remain the No. 1 overall seed in Bleacher Report's latest projection of the 2016 NCAA tournament field.

A lot can still change in these final 10 days before Selection Sunday, but there's at least a 99 percent chance that Kansas will be a No. 1 seed. Virginia, Villanova and Oklahoma are our other projected No. 1 seeds, but they're nowhere near as locked in as the team with three more RPI Top 50 wins than any other team in the country.

At the other end of the spectrum, Florida and VCU dropped out from last week's projected field, replaced by Vanderbilt and Stanford. There will be plenty more on all four of those teams and many others on the following slides.

The three primary computer metrics considered in this projection are Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), Strength of Schedule (SOS) as calculated by WarrenNolan.com and KenPom.com's pythagorean rankings (KP). And, of course, the oft-mentioned, never-quantifiable eye test was a large part of the seeding process.

As always, we'll take a look at the last five teams to make the field, the first five out and a few on the horizon.

After that, we'll present each seeded region, including the subregional locations in which each pod would be played, and some commentary on which teams have moved the most in each region. Then we'll defend the No. 1 seeds' rankings, followed by a summary of the entire field broken up by conference.

Last 5 In

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Last Team In: Butler Bulldogs (19-9, RPI: 56, KP: 39, SOS: 74)

Rather symbolic of their entire season, the Bulldogs jumped out to a strong early lead against Georgetown on Saturday, gave it all away, then opened up another big lead late in the second half only to somehow let the Hoyas force overtime, where Butler narrowly won.

It felt like a crucial win for the Bulldogs, but it knocked Georgetown out of the RPI Top 100, leaving Butler with just one RPI Top 100 win (at Seton Hall) since mid-December—during which time it also suffered bad losses to Creighton and Marquette.

Remaining home games against Seton Hall and Marquette are both must-win affairs for the Bulldogs. They need the quality win over the Pirates and must avoid another bad loss to the Golden Eagles. Anything short of that, and they might need to beat either Villanova or Xavier in the Big East semifinals to give this resume the necessary oomph to dance.

Second-to-Last: Stanford Cardinal (14-12, RPI: 65, KP: 78, SOS: 3)

Welcome back, Stanford!

After sweeping USC and UCLA this week, the Cardinal now have five RPI Top 50 wins and seven RPI Top 100 wins with only one loss to a team outside the RPI Top 50 (at No. 76 Washington). No other team outside our top six seed lines can make that claim.

However, the only other teams in our projected field with at least 12 losses are No. 16 seeds Bucknell and Texas Southern. Though none of the losses are particularly bad, a dozen of them before the end of the regular season is a big pill to swallow.

Also, Stanford's nonconference profile is beyond lackluster. The Cardinal played quality teams in Villanova, Texas, SMU and Saint Mary's, but missed out on all of those opportunities. Their best win outside the Pac-12 was a neutral-court game against Arkansas, and that's not saying much.

Compared to the rest of the ugly resumes on the bubble, though, Stanford has a strong case in advance of the season-ending trip through Arizona. A loss to the Wildcats and a win over the Sun Devils would leave the Cardinal in an extremely bubbly position heading into the Pac-12 tournament.

Third-to-Last: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (20-7, RPI: 35, KP: 82, SOS: 85)

The Bonnies promiscuously flirted with disaster this week, winning home games against Duquesne and Massachusetts by a combined margin of just six points. It did them no favors on KenPom (dropped from 69 to 82), but it didn't damage their RPI or overall profile.

Now comes the big one.

They won at Saint Joseph's back in early February and get a chance to complete the season sweep Wednesday. A win would be their third against the RPI Top 50 and would push them to 9-1 over the last 10 games. It would likely be enough to move St. Bonaventure several spots further into the field.

But a loss would leave the Bonnies with a significant amount of work to do in the A-10 tournament. They're light on quality wins—particularly with wins over Dayton and George Washington seemingly losing value by the hour—and they do have bad losses to Duquesne and La Salle.

Fourth-to-Last: Providence Friars (20-9, RPI: 45, KP: 59, SOS: 55)

There's been far too much banter over the past several months about the projected No. 1 overall draft pick likely missing the NCAA tournament, but where's the hubbub about us being on the verge of a tournament sans more than half of the preseason first-team All-Americans?

LSU would have to do something special in the next 11 days for Ben Simmons to dance, and as we'll discuss on the following slide, it's auto bid or bust for Gonzaga and Kyle Wiltjer. That's two out of five already in dire straits, and Kris Dunn's Friars aren't exactly sitting pretty, either.

Providence has three losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100 and just two wins against the RPI Top 50. Fortunately, those wins (at Villanova, neutral-court vs. Arizona) are strong enough to make up for a middling computer profile, but only if the Friars avoid further disaster down the stretch. They close out the regular season against Creighton and St. John's, and cannot afford to lose either of those games.

Fifth-to-Last: Cincinnati Bearcats (21-8, RPI: 50, KP: 29, SOS: 93)

Like Providence, Cincinnati's quantity of quality wins is quite troublesome. Perhaps even more so, because at least Providence has a road win over a projected No. 1 seed. Cincinnati's best wins of the season came against bubble teams (vs. Tulsa, at VCU).

All told, Cincinnati is just 2-4 against the RPI Top 50 and 6-7 against the RPI Top 100. And none of those wins came against the RPI Top 35.

That's bad news, Bearcats.

But they only have one loss outside the RPI Top 60 (at Memphis) and have games remaining against Houston and SMU. Obviously, a 2-0 finish would be the best course of action, but if they can only win one of those games, it better be the one against SMU, because they desperately need that quality win—especially when you consider the lack of opportunities they will receive in the AAC tournament.

First 5 Out

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First Team Out: VCU Rams (21-8, RPI: 44, KP: 38, SOS: 80)

For the most part, the Rams have been playing quite well for more than two months. Since Dec. 20, they are 16-3 with RPI Top 100 wins over Saint Joseph's, St. Bonaventure, George Washington and Davidson.

Unfortunately, those three losses have come in the past four weeks, and two of them (at Massachusetts, at George Mason) were downright awful. Had VCU done much of anything in nonconference play, it would still be in great shape. But the Rams went 0-5 against their best opponents and boast nothing better before January than a win over Middle Tennessee.

Unlike the other teams on this slide, though, VCU still has regular-season opportunities remaining. The Rams host Davidson on Wednesday before a huge game at Dayton on Saturday. A pair of wins wouldn't quite lock up a bid, but they would need to screw up badly in the A-10 tournament to blow it at that point. 

Second Team Out: Temple Owls (18-10, RPI: 58, KP: 92, SOS: 52)

Just like VCU, Temple is tied for first place in its mid-major conference after whiffing on each and every one of its nonconference opportunities.

The Owls lost to Villanova, North Carolina, Utah, Wisconsin, Saint Joseph's and Butler, leaving a home game against RPI No. 227 Fairleigh Dickinson as their best nonconference win. To say the least, that's not ideal.

They did end SMU's perfect season, though, and swept their season series against Cincinnati and Connecticut. However, with both the Bearcats and Huskies trending dangerously toward the cut line, what Temple has done in AAC play is barely enough to get into the conversation.

Even if the Owls win their season-ending games against Memphis and Tulane, it will probably further damage their already frail computer profile. Unless they pick up a third win against either Cincinnati or Connecticut in the AAC tournament, Temple is likely headed for another NIT appearance.

Third Team Out: Alabama Crimson Tide (17-11, RPI: 57, KP: 81, SOS: 31)

The Crimson Tide were in solid shape after consecutive wins over Texas A&M, Florida and LSU in mid-February, but they immediately undid that good with a home loss to Mississippi State and a second blowout loss at the hands of Kentucky.

They do have five RPI Top 50 wins—including neutral-court victories over Wichita State and Notre Dame back in November—but losses to Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and LSU in the past two months make it difficult to take this team seriously.

Remaining games against Arkansas and Georgia won't provide much of an opportunity to improve their stock, so the Crimson Tide will likely need to score their season-saving win in the SEC tournament—where they will likely be the No. 6 seed in a conference with only two stone-cold locks for the NCAA tournament.

Fourth Team Out: Florida Gators (17-13, RPI: 48, KP: 44, SOS: 13)

Florida skated by for a long time on little more than strength of schedule and KenPom rank, but the latter has faded and the former has taken its toll on the overall record.

The Gators do have a high-quality win over West Virginia, but that home game is their only RPI Top 25 win. A neutral-court game against Saint Joseph's back in November was their only other RPI Top 50 victory. That's not nearly enough to make up for 13 losses, six of which have come in the past eight games.

The season finale against Missouri won't do anything to bring Florida back from the dead, so it's going to take a strong SEC tournament run at this point.

Fifth Team Out: Gonzaga Bulldogs (22-7, RPI: 64, KP: 32, SOS: 121)

Gonzaga has a near 0 percent chance of earning an at-large bid. We're only mentioning the Zags here for the sake of nostalgia—which is the only possible excuse for anyone to have this team in the projected field right now.

With 17 consecutive NCAA tournament appearances, Gonzaga is one of the most successful teams since the late '90s. But we have to be able to separate the past from the present, and these Bulldogs have zero RPI Top 50 wins with 19 of their 22 victories coming against teams outside the RPI Top 100.

The overall strength of schedule is atrocious, and even their typically glamorous nonconference SOS is far from a thing of beauty this year.

Separate the name from the profile, and you'll find that Gonzaga's resume is only marginally better than UC Irvine's and slightly worse than Hofstra's.

On the Horizon

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Teams are running out of opportunities to boost their resumes, but here are a few teams that could conceivably still get into the picture with a strong finish.

Ohio State Buckeyes (19-11, RPI: 74, KP: 64, SOS: 58)

For most of the season, Ohio State was a long shot wrapped in a fat chance. Losing consecutive games to Texas-Arlington, Louisiana Tech and Memphis tends to have that effect.

After Sunday's win over Iowa, though, the Buckeyes have won five of six, have gone more than three months without losing to a team projected to miss the tournament and end the regular season with a gargantuan opportunity at Michigan State.

Granted, they just lost to the Spartans at home by a 19-point margin one week ago, but if they can get that win, the Buckeyes would figure to be smack dab on the bubble entering the Big Ten tournament.

Princeton Tigers (19-5, RPI: 34, KP: 55, SOS: 124)

Yale and Princeton went a combined 4-0 last week and are now just five wins away from potentially securing the first at-large bid in Ivy League history.

If Yale wins this weekend at Cornell and Columbia, and if Princeton closes out the regular season with wins over Harvard, Dartmouth and Penn, both teams would be 13-1 in conference play, necessitating a one-game playoff for the auto bid.

Should Princeton lose that game, it would be 22-6 with one RPI Top 50 win (assuming Yale is in the RPI Top 50 at that point), no bad losses and a moderately respectable nonconference SOS rank (80). It probably wouldn't be enough to get in, but that will depend on what other bubble teams do in their conference tournaments.

UCLA Bruins (15-14, RPI: 82, KP: 57, SOS: 22)

UCLA isn't particularly close to the bubble, but it has a path to get there. The Bruins close the regular season at home against Oregon and Oregon State, where a pair of wins would give them six against the RPI Top 50.

Whether that puts them at No. 9 or No. 10 in the Pac-12 tournament, it would put them in position for another marquee win in the quarterfinals against either Oregon or Utah before a likely semifinal against either California or Arizona.

It's not likely by any means, but should UCLA get to the Pac-12 finals before losing again, it would be 20-15 with eight or nine RPI Top 50 wins. That might be enough this year.

Florida State Seminoles (17-12, RPI: 71, KP: 45, SOS: 50)

The Seminoles finally put an end to their five-game losing streak with a 77-56 win over Notre Dame on Saturday, but that only begins to undo the damage done.

They must win the season finale at home against Syracuse. Whether that leaves them with the No. 10 or No. 11 seed in the ACC tournament, they'll likely need to go through both the No. 2 and No. 3 seed to reach the ACC championship game.

As with UCLA, it's an incredibly unlikely scenario, but it's what Florida State needs to have a good enough resume.

LSU Tigers (18-12, RPI: 86, KP: 73, SOS: 63)

It's still a stretch-and-a-half, but we just can't completely remove LSU from the bubble. Not with a chance on Saturday to finish off a season sweep of Kentucky, that is.

The Tigers have had their fair share of despicable losses, but they have three RPI Top 50 wins and seven RPI Top 100 wins with a remaining opportunity to score by far their most impressive win of the season to date.

Even if they're able to win in Rupp Arena, there will still be work to do in the SEC tournament. Two wins over Kentucky don't make up for losses to Arkansas, Tennessee, Wake Forest, Marquette, NC State and Charleston. But a third win over Kentucky? Then it would get interesting.

George Washington Colonials (22-8, RPI: 61, KP: 72, SOS: 96)

GW kept the status quo from last week, beating Richmond and George Mason while blowing an opportunity for a somewhat quality win over VCU.

As it stands, the Colonials' resume is almost exponentially better than LSU's, but they don't have anywhere near the remaining chances that LSU has. They need to win at Davidson on Saturday, but that just barely moves the needle in the right direction for a team that went 17-3 against schools outside the RPI Top 100.

The November win over Virginia and December win over Seton Hall look better every day, but it's probably going to take a deep A-10 tournament run to save this resume.

East Region (Philadelphia)

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Brooklyn, New York

No. 1 Villanova (26-4, RPI: 2, KP: 3, SOS: 8)
No. 16 North Florida (Atlantic Sun auto bid)

No. 8 South Carolina (22-6, RPI: 38, KP: 54, SOS: 120)
No. 9 Pittsburgh (19-8, RPI: 41, KP: 40, SOS: 39)

Des Moines, Iowa

No. 4 Purdue (23-7, RPI: 18, KP: 19, SOS: 46)
No. 13 South Dakota State (Summit auto bid)

No. 5 Texas A&M (23-7, RPI: 20, KP: 25, SOS: 54)
No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt auto bid)

Brooklyn, New York

No. 3 West Virginia (22-7, RPI: 13, KP: 9, SOS: 21)
No. 14 Hofstra (Colonial auto bid)

No. 6 Notre Dame (19-9, RPI: 30, KP: 34, SOS: 33)
No. 11 Providence / St. Bonaventure (Last 5 In)

Raleigh, North Carolina

No. 2 Miami (23-5, RPI: 7, KP: 11, SOS: 19)
No. 15 UAB (Conference USA auto bid)

No. 7 Wisconsin (19-10, RPI: 33, KP: 27, SOS: 9)
No. 10 USC (19-10, RPI: 43, KP: 50, SOS: 41)

Stock Up: Wisconsin Badgers (Climbed Seven Spots)

The Badgers continued on their torrid pace this week, winning at Iowa and versus Michigan by a combined margin of 19 points, pushing their recent string of success to 10 wins in 11 games. We certainly wouldn't advise that they lose at Minnesota on Wednesday, but even if they do that and lose to Purdue on Saturday, it's almost impossible to envision this team missing the NCAA tournament.

And that's insane, because it was impossible to foresee this team making the tournament seven weeks ago. All hail, interim head coach Greg Gard.

Apparently, this is just something that Big Ten teams do now. Wisconsin went 8-5 in nonconference play with some ugly home losses, but Purdue did the exact same thing last year before tying for third place in the B1G standings with a 12-6 conference record and earning a No. 9 seed.

Stock Down: USC Trojans (Dropped 14 Spots)

With five losses in their last six games, the Trojans are in full-blown free fall.

The season sweep of UCLA was impressive at the time, but the Bruins have also been rapidly collapsing, leaving USC with just three RPI Top 50 wins—one of which came by a very slim margin against Wichita State playing without Fred VanVleet.

USC finishes the regular season with home games against Oregon and Oregon State. A sweep would probably be enough to lock up a bid, but a split would keep things bubbly, while two more losses would likely boot the Trojans out of the projected field. No pressure.

Stock Steady: West Virginia Mountaineers (No Change)

West Virginia has only played one game since our last update, avoiding a bad loss by comfortably beating Oklahoma State.

The Mountaineers are a No. 3 seed right now, but there's certainly an argument to be made for them as a No. 2 seed. It also isn't hard to envision a scenario where they ascend all the way to the top line.

They're 5-6 versus the RPI Top 25, and their only other loss came against Florida in the SEC-Big 12 Challenge. They still play games against Texas Tech and Baylor during the regular season, which could become their sixth and seventh RPI Top 25 victories. And if they win the Big 12 tournament, it's a safe assumption they'll pick up at least two more marquee wins along the way.

We don't often see No. 1 seeds with seven losses, but it has been done. Michigan State did it in both 2000 and 2012, and Illinois pulled it off in 2001.

Midwest Region (Chicago)

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Des Moines, Iowa

No. 1 Kansas (25-4, RPI: 1, KP: 1, SOS: 6)
No. 16 Weber State (Big Sky auto bid)

No. 8 Dayton (23-6, RPI: 25, KP: 56, SOS: 56)
No. 9 Wichita State (22-7, RPI: 37, KP: 8, SOS: 102)

Spokane, Washington

No. 4 California (21-8, RPI: 16, KP: 22, SOS: 14)
No. 13 Yale (Ivy League auto bid)

No. 5 Iowa State (21-9, RPI: 19, KP: 17, SOS: 16)
No. 12 Monmouth (MAAC auto bid)

Providence, Rhode Island

No. 3 Duke (22-8, RPI: 12, KP: 13, SOS: 7)
No. 14 Hawaii (Big West auto bid)

No. 6 Baylor (20-9, RPI: 22, KP: 26, SOS: 15)
No. 11 Valparaiso (Horizon League auto bid)

St. Louis, Missouri

No. 2 Michigan State (24-5, RPI: 14, KP: 2, SOS: 57)
No. 15 Winthrop (Big South auto bid)

No. 7 Saint Joseph's (24-5, RPI: 26, KP: 36, SOS: 82)
No. 10 Syracuse (19-11, RPI: 54, KP: 41, SOS: 37)

Stock Up: California Golden Bears (Climbed Seven Spots)

This is roughly where the Golden Bears were projected in preseason brackets, but they certainly took a circuitous route to get here.

At the end of January, Cal was 14-8 and struggling. There were a couple of quality home wins over Arizona, Utah and Saint Mary's, but the Golden Bears had lost five of their last seven games and were trending in the wrong direction.

But then they blew out Stanford. And Oregon. And Oregon State. They went 7-0 in February and won six of those games by a double-digit margin. After Sunday night's 22-point destruction of USC, few teams in the country are looking hotter.

If they're able to win at Arizona on Thursday, there won't be any room left on the California bandwagon.

Stock Down: Syracuse Orange (Dropped Six Spots)

Syracuse's nonconference schedule has not aged well.

Wins over Connecticut and Texas A&M in the Battle 4 Atlantis have lost value over the past month, and December losses to Georgetown and St. John's are getting uglier by the day with those teams suffering a combined 15 losses since Jan. 30.

On the bright side, the opening-week win over Saint Bonaventure looks better, and the loss to Wisconsin doesn't look nearly as bad as it once did. However, the net result is a mediocre six-week stretch leading up to a 9-8 ACC record that isn't particularly glamorous, either.

The Orange do have that one marquee win at Duke and a solid home win over Notre Dame, but their other seven conference wins are against teams that likely won't be dancing. They were swept by Pittsburgh and North Carolina, blown out at Miami and Louisville, and even lost a home game to Clemson for good measure.

If we effectively cancel out the Duke win with the St. John's loss, this is an extraordinarily bland resume. A loss at Florida State on Saturday would be a very bad idea.

Stock Steady: Duke Blue Devils (No Change)

Duke looked awful in the loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, but the teams previously slotted right behind the Blue Devils didn't help themselves out, either. Last week's No. 4 seeds were Iowa, Maryland, Kentucky and Texas, and they went a combined 1-5 from Wednesday to Monday.

Moreover, Duke helped itself out by bookending the loss to the Panthers with home wins over Florida State and Wake Forest to remain in the exact same position as last Tuesday.

Of course, Saturday is the big one. Duke and North Carolina are close enough to each other on the seed list that this weekend's showdown could ultimately determine which one gets (more) preferential treatment on Selection Sunday.

South Region (Louisville)

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Raleigh, North Carolina

No. 1 Virginia (23-6, RPI: 4, KP: 4, SOS: 10)
No. 16 Texas Southern / Hampton (First Four)

No. 8 Colorado (20-9, RPI: 28, KP: 62, SOS: 30)
No. 9 Vanderbilt (19-11, RPI: 49, KP: 23, SOS: 38)

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

No. 4 Texas (19-11, RPI: 24, KP: 31, SOS: 1)
No. 13 Akron (MAC auto bid)

No. 5 Indiana (24-6, RPI: 27, KP: 15, SOS: 92)
No. 12 Saint Mary's (West Coast auto bid)

Denver, Colorado

No. 3 Utah (22-7, RPI: 8, KP: 24, SOS: 11)
No. 14 Chattanooga (Southern auto bid)

No. 6 Iowa (20-9, RPI: 21, KP: 14, SOS: 36)
No. 11 Cincinnati (Last 5 In)

St. Louis, Missouri

No. 2 Xavier (25-4, RPI: 5, KP: 12, SOS: 29)
No. 15 Belmont (Ohio Valley auto bid)

No. 7 Arizona (22-7, RPI: 29, KP: 16, SOS: 83)
No. 10 Tulsa (19-10, RPI: 39, KP: 43, SOS: 43)

Stock Up: Vanderbilt Commodores (New to the Field)

It took two-and-a-half months, but Vanderbilt is finally living up to preseason expectations.

After finishing off the season sweep of Florida last Tuesday and winning a home game against Kentucky on Saturday, the Commodores now have four RPI Top 50 wins—all in the past five weeks.

Damion Jones was hit-or-miss early in the season, but the big man has played like an NBA first-rounder as of late, averaging 18.8 points and 10.0 rebounds over the last five games in February. The Commodores have also gotten great contributions from sophomore shooting guard Matthew Fisher-Davis during that window, as he averaged 16.2 points while shooting 51.2 percent from three-point range.

One more gigantic opportunity remains for Vanderbilt, which finishes the regular season with a road game against Texas A&M on Saturday. Either way, the Commodores are likely going to the NCAA tournament, but a win there would absolutely lock up a bid.

Stock Down: Arizona Wildcats (Dropped Seven Spots)

Arizona blew a pair of golden opportunities this past week, losing by slim margins at Colorado and Utah.

The Wildcats now have one of the strangest resumes in the country. They have zero RPI Top 25 wins, two RPI Top 50 wins and 12 RPI Top 100 wins—feasting on teams in the 75-90 range like Boise State, Fresno State, Washington and Arizona State. Moreover, their nonconference strength of schedule rank (228) is atrocious.

They look like a very good team on most nights—hence their KenPom rank of 16. Their seven losses have come by a total margin of 27 points, and they have all come against teams that either are or once were regarded as legitimate Sweet 16 candidates. And yet, Arizona might need to win the Pac-12 tournament just to have a shot at a No. 5 seed.

Stock Steady: Texas Longhorns (Climbed One Spot)

Monday night's 86-56 home loss to Kansas is one that's going to be tough to forget when filling out those brackets in two weeks, but let's remember that Connecticut lost 81-48 to Louisville on the final day of the 2013-14 regular season and went on to win the national championship. I'm not saying the Longhorns are going to win it all this year, but that one game certainly isn't a good reason to assume that they can't.

Ignoring that hiccup, though, Texas is one of just three teams in the country with at least seven RPI Top 25 wins—the others are Kansas and Oklahoma. Two days prior to the loss to the Jayhawks, the Longhorns went on a 22-0 run in a 13-point win over Oklahoma. They nearly won at Oklahoma earlier this year. They did win at West Virginia and Baylor.

This is a darn good 11-loss team. As long as they don't make it 12 losses against Oklahoma State on Friday, the Longhorns should be headed for no worse than a No. 5 seed.

West Region (Anaheim)

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Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

No. 1 Oklahoma (23-6, RPI: 6, KP: 6, SOS: 12)
No. 16 Bucknell / Wagner (First Four)

No. 8 Oregon State (16-10, RPI: 32, KP: 61, SOS: 5)
No. 9 Connecticut (20-9, RPI: 53, KP: 28, SOS: 61)

Denver, Colorado

No. 4 Kentucky (21-8, RPI: 15, KP: 10, SOS: 24)
No. 13 Stony Brook (America East auto bid)

No. 5 Maryland (22-6, RPI: 10, KP: 21, SOS: 35)
No. 12 San Diego State (Mountain West auto bid)

Providence, Rhode Island

No. 3 North Carolina (24-6, RPI: 9, KP: 5, SOS: 28)
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin (Southland auto bid)

No. 6 Texas Tech (18-10, RPI: 23, KP: 37, SOS: 2)
No. 11 Butler / Stanford (Last 5 In)

Spokane, Washington

No. 2 Oregon (22-6, RPI: 3, KP: 18, SOS: 4)
No. 15 New Mexico State (WAC auto bid)

No. 7 Seton Hall (21-7, RPI: 31, KP: 30, SOS: 59)
No. 10 Michigan (19-10, RPI: 59, KP: 47, SOS: 60)

Stock Up: Seton Hall Pirates (Climbed Eight Spots)

Did any team have a bigger week than Seton Hall?

The Pirates had been playing well, but it hadn't amounted to much on their computer profile. Yes, they entered last Thursday's game against Providence having won six of their last seven games, but all six of those wins came against Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette and St. John's. They were 19-7 overall, but just 2-5 versus the RPI Top 75.

After home wins against Providence and Xavier, though, Seton Hall now has four RPI Top 50 wins and its first RPI Top 25 win on the season. In the process, the Pirates' own RPI rank jumped from No. 43 to No. 31—which is almost always good enough for an at-large bid.

They just need to avoid disaster on Saturday. A road loss to Butler on Wednesday wouldn't do them any harm, but closing out the regular season with a loss to DePaul would likely drop Seton Hall at least a full seed line.

Stock Down: Maryland Terrapins (Dropped Six Spots)

Maryland's projected seed continues to plummet, but I'm oddly encouraged by its continued ability to score while its bread and butter fails miserably.

For most of the season, the Terrapins offense was Robert Carter setting a ball screen for Melo Trimble before setting up for a three-point look. After the win over Purdue on Feb. 6, head coach Mark Turgeon said, "Carter's two-man game with Melo (Trimble)...that's a really tough guard. Think about that. You got Melo coming off a ball screen, and you've got Rob popping. Coaching's really not that hard when you get down to it."

Carter shot 4-of-6 from three-point range in a game that admittedly wasn't tough to coach. In every other game since Jan. 23, though, he is a combined 0-of-13 from beyond the arc, and Trimble has struggled to adapt to defenses not even worrying about Carter in those sets.

And yet—while Rasheed Sulaimon has also struggled—Maryland has averaged 117 points per 100 possessions in its last two games thanks to great play from Diamond Stone and Jake Layman.

If Carter and Trimble start hitting shots again, this is a team that could absolutely rebound from a tough February to look dominant in March.

Stock Steady: Michigan Wolverines (Climbed Two Spots)

Michigan's resume is quite the conundrum.

Among our at-large teams, the Wolverines have the worst RPI. Their nonconference SOS rank (171) isn't exactly a bragging point, either. And they went 0-6 on the road against RPI Top 100 teams.

But they do have three RPI Top 25 wins and no losses to teams outside the RPI Top 75, and the list of teams that can make that claim isn't a long one.

All the same, Saturday's home game against Iowa is a massive one, as those three RPI Top 25 wins are Michigan's only wins against the RPI Top 95. And there's a big, possibly tournament-berth-deciding difference between 11 losses with three quality wins and 10 losses with four quality wins.

Bonus Stock Steady: North Carolina Tar Heels (Dropped Two Spots)

I fully expect North Carolina as a No. 3 seed to be the biggest point of argument in the comments, so allow me to briefly address the Tar Heels here.

Plain and simple, there are nine teams right now that have a strong argument for a No. 1 seed, and North Carolina's resume ranks ninth on that list for me. Emphasis on resume, because UNC, Michigan State and perhaps Kansas are the only teams that I would consider picking to the Final Four without even seeing their draw in the bracket. This team is that talented.

However, they have just three RPI Top 50 wins in eight tries, and every other team under serious consideration for a spot on the top line has at least six such wins.

A road win over Duke on Saturday would help matters, not just because it's a high-quality win, but also because it would give North Carolina at least a share of the ACC regular-season title. If they then proceed to win the ACC tournament, the Tar Heels could absolutely get on the top line. They just don't deserve it right now.

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds

Eric Gay/Associated Press

No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (23-6, RPI: 6, KP: 6, SOS: 12)

With Oklahoma's loss to Texas on Saturday while Oregon and Michigan State surged forward, the gap between "Bottom No. 1 Seed" and "Top No. 2 Seed" is as small as it has been all season. But by holding on for dear life for a win over Baylor on Tuesday night, the Sooners also maintained their grip on a spot on the top line.

The Ducks and Spartans are looking great, but it's hard to argue with Oklahoma's eight RPI Top 25 wins. If Oregon sweeps the Pac-12 regular-season and conference-tournament titles, though, it would almost certainly jump up to steal this spot from Oklahoma.

No. 3 Villanova Wildcats (26-4, RPI: 2, KP: 3, SOS: 8)

Wednesday's loss to Xavier bumped Villanova from the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25, but it's going to take more than a road loss to a projected No. 2 seed to knock the Wildcats off the top line.

The big thing for Jay Wright's guys is that they simply don't lose to bad teams. They're 1-3 versus the RPI Top 6 and 25-1 against everyone else—and Providence needed overtime and monster performances from both Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn to make that one loss happen. In total, Villanova has 14 RPI Top 100 wins.

With Tuesday night's win over DePaul, Villanova clinched a third consecutive outright Big East regular-season championship. That doesn't carry as much weight as it would have five years ago in the "Old Big East," but it's still doggone impressive. And this year's Big East was stronger than either of the past two, so good luck arguing that this isn't one of the four most deserving teams in the country.

No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (23-6, RPI: 4, KP: 4, SOS: 10)

Save for one-possession losses at Duke and Miami, Virginia is undefeated since mid-January. During that stretch, they have wins at Louisville, at Pittsburgh, versus North Carolina and a much-tougher-than-the-RPI-wants-you-to-believe season sweep of Clemson.

Particularly in the past five weeks, defense has been the key. The Cavaliers have held their last nine opponents to 56.1 points per game while playing at their preferred snail-like pace. Between the new rules and having to adjust to life without Darion Atkins, they had trouble imposing their will on defense early in the season, but that's no longer the case.

As far as the computer resume is concerned, the Wahoos already have six RPI Top 20 wins and still have a shot at snagging a share of a third straight ACC regular-season title. A home win over Louisville on Saturday wouldn't quite seal the deal for a No. 1 seed, but it would certainly increase the number of things that would need to go wrong for Virginia to not end up on the top line.

No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (25-4, RPI: 1, KP: 1, SOS: 6)

Right now, everyone else is living in Kansas' world. Try this stat on for size if you're not convinced that Kansas is all but locked into the No. 1 overall seed: The Jayhawks have more RPI Top 25 wins (10) than any other team has RPI Top 50 wins.

Having succinctly established that Kansas clearly has the best resume, I'd like to point out an interesting parallel.

Kansas lost one nonconference game on a neutral court against a legitimate title contender. Kansas proceeded to win every other game until hitting a brief rough patch in mid-January consisting of three losses. Kansas played in one of the most memorable multiple-overtime games in regular-season history. And Kansas looked downright dominant late in the season against Sweet 16-caliber opponents.

Reread that paragraph replacing every "Kansas" with "2012-13 Louisville," and it's still factually correct. If the Jayhawks are going to complete the comparison by winning the national championship, let's just hope they can avoid the sickening broken leg in the Elite Eight.

Seeding by Conference

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

In case seeded regions aren't for you and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each team's overall seed, broken down by conference. ("First Five Out" in italics.)

American: 35. Connecticut; 37. Tulsa; 41. Cincinnati; 70. Temple

Atlantic 10: 28. Saint Joseph's; 31. Dayton; 43. Saint Bonaventure; 69. VCU

ACC: 2. Virginia; 8. Miami; 9. North Carolina; 12. Duke; 23. Notre Dame; 33. Pittsburgh; 38. Syracuse

Big 12: 1. Kansas; 4. Oklahoma; 10. West Virginia; 15. Texas; 17. Iowa State; 21. Baylor; 24. Texas Tech

Big East: 3. Villanova; 7. Xavier; 27. Seton Hall; 42. Providence; 45. Butler

Big Ten: 6. Michigan State; 16. Purdue; 18. Indiana; 20. Maryland; 22. Iowa; 26. Wisconsin; 39. Michigan

Pac-12: 5. Oregon; 11. Utah; 13. California; 25. Arizona; 29. Oregon State; 30. Colorado; 40. USC; 44. Stanford

SEC: 14. Kentucky; 19. Texas A&M; 32. South Carolina; 36. Vanderbilt; 71. Florida; 72. Alabama

West Coast: 48. Saint Mary's; 73. Gonzaga

Other: 34. Wichita State; 46. Valparaiso; 47. Arkansas-Little Rock; 49. San Diego State; 50. Monmouth; 51. Yale; 52. South Dakota State; 53. Akron; 54. Stony Brook; 55. Hofstra; 56. Chattanooga; 57. Stephen F. Austin; 58. Hawaii; 59. UAB; 60. Belmont; 61. New Mexico State; 62. Winthrop; 63. Weber State; 64. North Florida; 65. Bucknell; 66. Wagner; 67. Texas Southern; 68. Hampton

Statistics courtesy of WarrenNolan.com, ESPN.com, Sports-Reference.com and KenPom.com. RPI, KP and SOS numbers are current through the start of play on Tuesday. Win-loss records include only games against D-I opponents and are current through the start of play on Wednesday.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @kerrancejames.