2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68
Kansas was already our No. 1 overall seed in last week's projection of the 2016 NCAA tournament field, but if there were any doubts, the Jayhawks erased them with road wins over Kansas State and Baylor in the past seven days.
We'll discuss the No. 1 seed rankings later, but just know that it's not even close right now. Kansas is clearly No. 1, with Villanova, Oklahoma and Xavier vying for second place.
At the other end of the spectrum, Alabama and Temple played their way out of the field on Tuesday night, opening the door for St. Bonaventure to make its debut in the projected field for the first time in many, many moons. Butler also slid back into the field as a result of those losses, but you'll have to read on for the full bubble picture.
One important thing to note that's going to be different from most of the projections you'll find on other sites: The projected automatic bid for each conference does not automatically go to the team with the best conference record. (Sorry, Temple, Winthrop and IPFW. That's just how we roll.)
Other than that, it's business as usual.
The three primary computer metrics considered in this projection are ESPN's Ratings Percentage Index (RPI), KenPom.com's pythagorean rankings (KP) and ESPN's strength of schedule (SOS). And, of course, the oft-mentioned, never-quantifiable eye test was a large part of the seeding process.
As always, we'll take a look at the last five teams to make the field, the first five out and a few on the horizon.
After that, we'll present each seeded region, including the subregional locations in which each pod would be played, and some commentary on which teams have moved the most in each region. Then we'll defend the No. 1 seeds' rankings, followed by a summary of the entire field broken up by conference.
Last 5 In
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Last Team In: Butler Bulldogs (18-9, RPI: 61, KP: 42, SOS: 81)
Butler merely played and lost a road game against Villanova in the past seven days, but by suffering an acceptable loss, while other bubble teams did much more unforgivable things, the Bulldogs actually moved up two spots to sneak into the projected field.
The Bulldogs have a "not much good, not much bad" bubbly resume. They only have two RPI Top 50 wins, but they also only have two losses to teams outside the RPI Top 40—a pair of road games against Creighton and Marquette. As long as they have a single-digit number in the loss column, that's good enough for consideration.
But that means upcoming games against Georgetown and Seton Hall are absolutely critical. Neither is the type of win that would undoubtedly push Butler into the field, but a loss in either game would probably drop this team back onto the wrong side of the bubble.
Second-to-Last: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (18-7, RPI: 34, KP: 69, SOS: 73)
For the most part, the past few weeks have been outstanding for the Bonnies. They're 6-1 since late January while picking up their three best wins of the season (at Saint Joseph's, vs. George Washington, at Dayton).
Unfortunately, they also recorded by far their worst loss of the season (at La Salle) to put quite the damper on a job well done.
St. Bonaventure's other big downer is the complete lack of RPI Top 75 wins against nonconference opponents. The Bonnies only got two RPI Top 150 nonconference wins (vs. Ohio, at Buffalo), and neither of those teams has beaten an RPI Top 85 team this season.
In other words, the Bonnies' tournament hopes lie almost entirely in what they have done in conference play, and is a fourth-place standing in the A-10 that much of a bragging point to the selection committee?
Great wins in the past three weeks helped to firmly get into the at-large conversation, but they had better win these last four games (vs. Duquesne, vs. Massachusetts, vs. Saint Joseph's, at Saint Louis) if they want to stay in it.
Third-to-Last: VCU Rams (20-7, RPI: 47, KP: 33, SOS: 95)
We're coming down to the wire, but VCU still has a lot of season to play.
The Rams went 0-5 vs. RPI Top 75 teams during the nonconference portion of the season, but they are 3-1 against A-10 opponents in that range with three such games still to come. After facing George Mason on Wednesday, they'll travel to George Washington, host Davidson and then close the season at Dayton.
That stretch should certainly help improve their middling SOS, but whether it helps or hurts, their RPI will obviously depend on how they fare in those contests.
One way or the other, they probably need to win three of them. Whether that's three quality wins and one ugly loss or two quality wins, an acceptable loss and a meaningless win, this is a resume that needs some help. VCU has no RPI Top 25 wins and only four RPI Top 100 wins, and with a bad loss at Massachusetts already working against them, the Rams clearly have work left to do.
Fourth-to-Last: Cincinnati Bearcats (20-8, RPI: 56, KP: 29, SOS: 99)
Cincinnati has spent the past month simply hovering around the cut line, and that doesn't change after a week comprised of a loss at Tulsa and a home win against Connecticut.
On the plus side, the Bearcats have now swept the Huskies, are playing great defense and have relatively strong computer numbers—particularly in the metrics based on margin of victory like KenPom and BPI, where winning the first four games of the season by a combined margin of 169 points is still paying dividends.
However, they have played 15 of their 28 games against teams outside the RPI Top 150 and only have a 5-7 record vs. RPI Top 75 teams. Early-season wins over George Washington and VCU don't seem quite as strong as they once did, and the home loss to Butler isn't anywhere near as forgivable now as it was at the time.
They pretty much have to win the season finale against SMU, and they can't very well afford to lose road games against East Carolina or Houston before that showdown with the Mustangs. Otherwise, Cincinnati will have some serious work to do in a conference tournament devoid of RPI Top 35 teams.
Fifth-to-Last: Michigan Wolverines (18-9, RPI: 54, KP: 48, SOS: 70)
Michigan is guaranteed at least a .500 record in Big Ten play, has three RPI Top 25 wins and has only one loss to a team outside the RPI Top 40 (at No. 73 Ohio State). Those are all very good things.
However, the Wolverines are just 4-9 vs. RPI Top 100 teams and have lost five of their last six against those teams. Seven of their nine conference wins have come against the Big Ten's bottom six teams, and five of their six B1G losses were by a double-digit margin. Moreover, their nonconference SOS (Rank: 174) isn't "Clemson" bad, but it leaves a lot to be desired.
If the season ended today, they would probably be safe.
But it doesn't. And they aren't.
After a home game against Northwestern on Wednesday, they play at Wisconsin and host Iowa—a combination of games that will most likely leave them at 19-11 with a 4-11 record vs. RPI Top 100 teams and a B1G tournament seed of either No. 7 or No. 8. At that point, they would likely need to win their quarterfinal game against the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in order to give this resume the boost it needs to dance.
First 5 Out
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First Team Out: Temple Owls (17-10, RPI: 58, KP: 82, SOS: 64)
Did you know Temple did not win a single nonconference game against the RPI Top 200?
Do you suppose that might be a problem on Selection Sunday?
The Owls do have four RPI Top 50 and seven RPI Top 100 wins in AAC play, but they also have conference losses against Memphis and East Carolina that are doing them no favors whatsoever. And with no remaining regular-season games against the RPI Top 150 teams, Temple will need to find some quality wins in the AAC tournament to get back into the field.
Second Team Out: Alabama Crimson Tide (16-11, RPI: 41, KP: 70, SOS: 23)
It was a brutal week for Alabama's tournament bid.
Things started out great with a road win over fellow bubble team LSU, but the Tigers followed it up with blowout losses at Tennessee and Arkansas and might not even be an RPI Top 100 team when all is said and done.
And while that win was losing value—and the January home loss to LSU was getting uglier—the Crimson Tide shot themselves in the foot a few more times by losing at home to Mississippi State and barely even bothering to show up at Kentucky on Tuesday.
They're now 7-8 in a conference that only has four other teams in the RPI Top 60. Conference record doesn't matter, but it does kind of sum up how this team has been playing for the past seven weeks. Beating Texas A&M as part of a five-game winning streak was a neat trick, but the full body of work is quickly deteriorating.
Third Team Out: UCLA Bruins (15-12, RPI: 66, KP: 52, SOS: 20)
The Bruins just barely missed out on a huge home win over Utah on Thursday, but they rebounded with a 24-point beatdown of Colorado for their fourth RPI Top 50 and eighth RPI Top 100 win.
But they already have 12 losses, and two of them (Wake Forest and Washington State) are considerably less than forgivable. UCLA probably needs to finish the season with three wins in four games; good luck with that against this slate: at California, at Stanford, vs. Oregon, vs. Oregon State.
Fourth Team Out: Vanderbilt Commodores (17-11, RPI: 62, KP: 30, SOS: 53)
We thought the buzzer-beating loss to Mississippi State was the end of the line for the Commodores, but they have life once again after a home win over Georgia and a road win over Florida this week. They now have four RPI Top 50 wins and six RPI Top 100 wins, but they will need a couple more down the stretch.
Vanderbilt hosts Kentucky on Saturday and travels to Texas A&M next Saturday with a home game against Tennessee in between. Win all three of those, and the Commodores just might make the tournament after all.
Fifth Team Out: George Washington Colonials (20-7, RPI: 50, KP: 81, SOS: 119)
There are a couple of things to like about this resume, most notably the minimal number of losses and the quality win over Virginia. However, the Colonials only have one RPI Top 40 win and four RPI Top 100 wins in addition to three bad losses.
They need to win remaining games against VCU and Davidson to boost the RPI Top 100 win count, and they need to avoid losing to Richmond or George Mason, which would increase their bad-loss total. Translation: George Washington cannot afford to lose again during the regular season. The Colonials might even need to also win the A-10 No. 4 vs. No. 5 game against St. Bonaventure to really look good.
On the Horizon
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In no particular order, here are 10 other teams that aren't quite on the fringe of the tournament field, but at least have a decent place in a greenside bunker.
Princeton Tigers (17-5, RPI: 40, KP: 55, SOS: 126)
How Princeton got an RPI rank of 40 while winning just one game against the RPI Top 125 teams is beyond my grasp, but what would happen if the Tigers win out to get to 13-1 in Ivy League play before losing to Yale in a one-game playoff to determine the conference's auto bid?
It's not a particularly strong resume by any means, but 22-6 with no losses outside the RPI Top 60 would at least be worth discussing, right? The Ivy League has never received multiple bids to the NCAA tournament, but with Louisville and SMU ineligible and so many teams playing like they don't want to dance, maybe this could be the year.
Stanford Cardinal (12-12, RPI: 75, KP: 106, SOS: 4)
Last week's last team into the field is now on the outside looking in after a loss to Washington, but the Cardinal still have a decent shot at sneaking in—provided they can do some damage down the stretch.
They have three RPI Top 25 wins and only two losses to teams outside the RPI Top 40, but the sheer number of RPI Top 40 losses (10) is dragging them down. As long as they can win one of their home games against USC and UCLA this week, they'll enter their road trip to the Arizona schools with a chance to dance.
Florida State Seminoles (16-11, RPI: 71, KP: 54, SOS: 67)
After back-to-back losses to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech pushed their losing streak to four games, the Seminoles almost aren't worth considering anymore. However, they do have a marquee win over Virginia, three RPI Top 50 wins, only one RPI Sub-100 loss and three opportunities remaining against Duke, Notre Dame and Syracuse. A 2-1 finish would at least give them a glimmer of hope heading into the ACC tournament.
Washington Huskies (16-11, RPI: 69, KP: 67, SOS: 31)
They haven't lost by more than a 10-point margin since Jan. 14, but going 3-6 with six close losses to RPI Top 50 teams in the past month isn't a ringing endorsement for tournament inclusion. Washington just about has to win both of this week's road games against the Oregon schools to get back into the picture.
Kansas State Wildcats (15-13, RPI: 76, KP: 47, SOS: 13)
Perhaps the most confusing thing about Kansas State's resume is that the SOS rank is only 13, even though the Wildcats have played 14 games against the RPI Top 25 teams. Sure, they're on the wrong side of the bubble because they went 2-12 in those games, but that's a ridiculous testament to how tough it is to play in the Big 12. They probably need to win remaining road games against Iowa State and Texas Tech to have any shot.
Georgia Bulldogs (14-11, RPI: 80, KP: 83, SOS: 24)
Speaking of SOS ranks that don't make much sense, how is Georgia's nonconference SOS ranked No. 2 in the country when the Bulldogs only faced two RPI Top 50 and six RPI Top 100 opponents? They're nowhere close to the field at the moment, but wins over South Carolina and Alabama to close the season would make things interesting.
Creighton Bluejays (17-10, RPI: 83, KP: 43, SOS: 103)
Creighton hasn't played since our last projection, but its RPI has gotten slightly worse. The recent home win over Xavier put the Bluejays on the map, but they might need to close the season 4-0 vs. Marquette, vs. St. John's, at Providence and at Xavier.
Davidson Wildcats (16-9, RPI: 60, KP: 109, SOS: 56)
With only one RPI Top 100 win and a pair of losses against teams outside the RPI Top 175, this is one heck of a long shot. But the Wildcats have won three straight, and those two ugly losses are their only ones outside the RPI Top 50. If they can win three more to close out the regular season, they'd be sitting at 19-9 with quality wins over Saint Joseph's, VCU and George Washington. A subsequent win or three in the A-10 tournament would put Davidson in the conversation.
LSU Tigers (16-12, RPI: 87, KP: 66, SOS: 69)
They do still have games remaining against Florida and Kentucky, so we can't completely bury the Tigers just yet. But after picking up their fifth RPI Sub-100 loss on Tuesday night, now would be a good time to start thinking about what you want to put on their tombstone.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (16-12, RPI: 70, KP: 61, SOS: 14)
If a 16-12 team is going to make it, Georgia Tech has a better argument than LSU. The Yellow Jackets are just 6-9 in ACC play, but they have won three in a row to get to three RPI Top 50 and six RPI Top 100 wins. And they have opportunities remaining in the form of games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, plus the ACC tournament. Crazier things have happened.
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East Region (Philadelphia)
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Brooklyn, New York
No. 1 Villanova (24-3, RPI: 2, KP: 1, SOS: 19)
No. 16 North Florida (Atlantic Sun auto bid)
No. 8 Connecticut (19-8, RPI: 38, KP: 24, SOS: 41)
No. 9 Wisconsin (17-10, RPI: 44, KP: 38, SOS: 6)
Providence, Rhode Island
No. 4 Maryland (22-5, RPI: 10, KP: 20, SOS: 40)
No. 13 Stony Brook (America East auto bid)
No. 5 Iowa State (19-9, RPI: 18, KP: 18, SOS: 10)
No. 12 Monmouth (MAAC auto bid)
Providence, Rhode Island
No. 3 West Virginia (21-7, RPI: 13, KP: 12, SOS: 27)
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin (Southland auto bid)
No. 6 Dayton (22-5, RPI: 17, KP: 49, SOS: 52)
No. 11 Michigan (Last 5 In)
Raleigh, North Carolina
No. 2 Virginia (21-6, RPI: 5, KP: 2, SOS: 16)
No. 15 UAB (Conference USA auto bid)
No. 7 Purdue (21-7, RPI: 22, KP: 16, SOS: 47)
No. 10 Tulsa (19-9, RPI: 42, KP: 45, SOS: 38)
Stock Up: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (New to the Field)
Tulsa was not on anyone's radar until two weeks ago. The Golden Hurricane started the season 8-6 with a quality home win over Wichita State and a brutal home loss to Oral Roberts. By early February, they were 14-8 and had added little to their resume other than a home win over Connecticut and a road loss to Houston.
But now they have won five of their last six and picked up four of their seven best wins in the process, including a massively important road win over SMU.
All of a sudden, Tulsa is a half-game out of first place in the AAC with a very solid computer resume. And that's bad news for my bracket picks, because I'm going to have a hard time not talking myself into at least two tournament wins for a team with an eight-man rotation comprised of seven seniors and one junior.
Stock Down: Purdue Boilermakers (Dropped six spots)
After Saturday's defeat at the hands of Indiana, Purdue has now lost its last five road games against the RPI Top 200. The Boilermakers even darn nearly messed around and lost at Minnesota in the middle of that stretch.
They have a ton of talent, but they can't seem to get it to consistently show up.
A.J. Hammons has been perhaps the biggest culprit. He has averaged 21.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.8 blocks over his last four home games, but just 14.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.0 blocks in his last four road games. But at least that means he'll show up for Saturday's home game against Maryland, right?
Stock Steady: West Virginia Mountaineers (Climbed one spot)
Has anyone seen Press Virginia?
The Mountaineers averaged 10.4 steals per game through their first 25 games, but they have averaged just 5.3 over the last three contests—now facing conference opponents for the second time this season.
A similar thing happened last year. WVU had at least eight steals in each of its first 21 games and was averaging 12.0 per game through 25 contests, but only topped eight twice in its final 10 games.
The good news is this is a much-better and deeper team than last year, so the Mountaineers were able to put up 97 points against Iowa State on Monday despite tallying just seven steals. As long as Jaysean Paige and Jonathan Holton keep doing their thing, West Virginia should do no worse than a No. 4 seed for just the second time in the past half-century.
Midwest Region (Chicago)
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Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
No. 1 Oklahoma (21-5, RPI: 3, KP: 5, SOS: 9)
No. 16 Texas Southern/Hampton (First Four)
No. 8 Oregon State (14-10, RPI: 32, KP: 63, SOS: 3)
No. 9 Seton Hall (19-7, RPI: 43, KP: 34, SOS: 92)
Denver, Colorado
No. 4 Kentucky (21-7, RPI: 11, KP: 9, SOS: 28)
No. 13 Yale (Ivy League auto bid)
No. 5 California (19-8, RPI: 20, KP: 26, SOS: 30)
No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock (Sun Belt auto bid)
Des Moines, Iowa
No. 3 Michigan State (23-5, RPI: 16, KP: 3, SOS: 65)
No. 14 Chattanooga (Southern auto bid)
No. 6 Notre Dame (18-8, RPI: 26, KP: 23, SOS: 21)
No. 11 San Diego State (Mountain West auto bid)
Brooklyn, New York
No. 2 Miami (22-5, RPI: 7, KP: 15, SOS: 34)
No. 15 UNC-Asheville (Big South auto bid)
No. 7 USC (19-8, RPI: 30, KP: 39, SOS: 42)
No. 10 Providence (19-8, RPI: 37, KP: 56, SOS: 48)
Stock Up: Seton Hall Pirates (Climbed seven spots)
At the end of January 2015, Seton Hall was 15-6 and projected by yours truly for a No. 9 seed. But then the Pirates crashed and burned, losing nine of their final 10 games to miss postseason play altogether.
At the end of January 2016, Seton Hall was 15-6 and very much on the bubble. I had the Pirates as the first team out of the field on Jan. 26, before they closed the month with ho-hum wins over St. John's and Creighton.
But this year, February has gone much, much better. They are currently 4-1 in the month with a pair of wins over Georgetown and a could-be-worse home loss to Butler. If Seton Hall can win either of the upcoming home games against Providence or Xavier, it should be in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2006.
Stock Down: Providence Friars (Dropped eight spots)
Providence is 5-7 in its last 12 games and has not beaten a team other than Georgetown in the past month. The Friars were also swept by Marquette and lost a game at DePaul.
The good news is the remaining schedule isn't too daunting. They play at Seton Hall on Thursday, but they then close the season with games against DePaul, Creighton and St. John's. But if they lose to the Pirates before winning three straight, they would be 22-9 with no change to their number of quality wins and bad losses.
Many bracketologists have been slow to accept/admit it—ESPN's Joe Lunardi actually moved the Friars up to a No. 7 seed this week—but this is a bubbly resume.
Don't believe me? Which one of these blind resumes do you prefer?
Team A: 19-8, RPI: 37, KP: 56, SOS: 48, NCSOS: 208, two RPI Top 50 wins, three RPI Sub-100 losses
Team B: 18-7, RPI: 34, KP: 69, SOS: 73, NCSOS: 154, three RPI Top 50 wins, two RPI Sub-100 losses
If you've been paying attention, it should be clear Team A is Providence. But Team B is St. Bonaventure, and the Bonnies are currently the third team out of the projected field on Bracket Matrix.
As long as they don't royally slip up down the stretch, the Friars might be OK. However, the fact they kept hanging around the AP Top 25 until this past Monday obscured how vulnerable this resume is.
Stock Steady: Miami Hurricanes (No change)
Fortunately for the Hurricanes, RPI doesn't give a rat's behind about margin of victory. So even though North Carolina slaughtered them on Saturday and they barely eked out a home win over Virginia on Monday, their RPI rank climbed two spots to No. 7 this week.
They now have three RPI Top 25 wins, seven RPI Top 50 wins and 12 RPI Top 100 wins with games against Louisville and Notre Dame still to come.
The one against the Fighting Irish could be a big one, because Miami's best true road win of the season was against Georgia Tech. The 'Canes were crushed by North Carolina, lost at Virginia and had a pair of disappointing losses by double-digit margins at Clemson and NC State. If they don't get that win against Notre Dame, we'll start really questioning this team's ability to travel.
South Region (Louisville)
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Des Moines, Iowa
No. 1 Kansas (23-4, RPI: 1, KP: 4, SOS: 11)
No. 16 Bucknell/Wagner (First Four)
No. 8 Saint Joseph's (22-5, RPI: 28, KP: 40, SOS: 88)
No. 9 Colorado (18-9, RPI: 36, KP: 71, SOS: 60)
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
No. 4 Iowa (20-6, RPI: 15, KP: 8, SOS: 44)
No. 13 Akron (MAC auto bid)
No. 5 Texas A&M (20-7, RPI: 23, KP: 21, SOS: 50)
No. 12 Valparaiso (Horizon auto bid)
Denver, Colorado
No. 3 Utah (20-7, RPI: 9, KP: 27, SOS: 17)
No. 14 Hawaii (Big West auto bid)
No. 6 Indiana (22-6, RPI: 29, KP: 19, SOS: 110)
No. 11 VCU/Butler (Last 5 In)
Raleigh, North Carolina
No. 2 North Carolina (22-5, RPI: 8, KP: 6, SOS: 43)
No. 15 Belmont (Ohio Valley auto bid)
No. 7 South Carolina (21-5, RPI: 30, KP: 57, SOS: 142)
No. 10 Wichita State (20-7, RPI: 46, KP: 10, SOS: 108)
Stock Up: Utah Utes (Climbed nine spots)
Winning on the road in Pac-12 play has not been an easy task for any team, but the Utes picked up their fourth and fifth conference road wins on last week's trip through UCLA and USC. They have now won nine of their last 11 games and enter a season-ending homestand against Arizona, Arizona State and Colorado with a 14-7 record vs. RPI Top 75 teams.
On a related note, look for the Pac-12 to be the reason we finally determine this year just how much the selection committee actually considers metrics like KenPom.com. Utah's RPI rank (9) is 18 rungs better than its KenPom.com rank (27). Likewise, Oregon (4 vs. 17), Oregon State (32 vs. 63) and Colorado (36 vs. 71) should prove to be interesting case studies.
Stock Down: Iowa Hawkeyes (Dropped eight spots)
Wednesday's loss to Penn State was by far Iowa's worst of the season, but it brought to light some concerns about just how good this team truly is.
The Hawkeyes only have seven RPI Top 100 wins, and you could put an asterisk on most of them. One came against Wichita State without Fred VanVleet, two were over Michigan State either playing without Denzel Valentine or before he was fully healthy, one was at home against Michigan without Caris LeVert, one was at home against Florida State that required overtime, and two came against a Purdue team that frankly might not be that good, either.
Iowa certainly looked the part of a No. 1 seed back in late January, but in the past four weeks, the Hawkeyes have three losses and zero RPI Top 100 wins. They had better close strong if they even want to sniff the No. 1 seed conversation again.
Stock Steady: Indiana Hoosiers (No change)
Indiana had another strong week at home, dominating Nebraska before hanging on for dear life to what should have been a blowout win over Purdue.
However, the Hoosiers didn't move an inch from last week, because they still only have one true road win against the RPI Top 150 teams, and they still have three losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100. Throw in a nonconference SOS rank sitting outside the top 200 and we've got a bizarre situation where the Big Ten leader is just barely a No. 6 seed.
Fortunately, they can make up a lot of ground in the next two weeks, as their last three games are at Illinois, at Iowa and vs. Maryland. Winning those games wouldn't erase their bad losses, but it would double their count of RPI Top 25 wins while significantly mitigating concerns about their ability to play away from Assembly Hall.
West Region (Anaheim)
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St. Louis, Missouri
No. 1 Xavier (24-3, RPI: 6, KP: 14, SOS: 66)
No. 16 Weber State (Big Sky auto bid)
No. 8 Syracuse (18-10, RPI: 51, KP: 44, SOS: 45)
No. 9 Florida (17-11, RPI: 33, KP: 36, SOS: 8)
Spokane, Washington
No. 4 Texas (17-10, RPI: 25, KP: 28, SOS: 5)
No. 13 South Dakota State (Summit auto bid)
No. 5 Arizona (22-5, RPI: 27, KP: 13, SOS: 128)
No. 12 Saint Mary's (West Coast auto bid)
St. Louis, Missouri
No. 3 Duke (20-7, RPI: 12, KP: 11, SOS: 7)
No. 14 UNC-Wilmington (Colonial auto bid)
No. 6 Baylor (19-8, RPI: 21, KP: 25, SOS: 26)
No. 11 Saint Bonaventure/Cincinnati (Last 5 In)
Spokane, Washington
No. 2 Oregon (20-6, RPI: 4, KP: 17, SOS: 1)
No. 15 New Mexico State (WAC auto bid)
No. 7 Texas Tech (18-9, RPI: 24, KP: 32, SOS: 2)
No. 10 Pittsburgh (18-7, RPI: 35, KP: 46, SOS: 51)
Stock Up: Pittsburgh Panthers (New to the Field)
Thanks to Saturday's 66-52 win over Syracuse, Pittsburgh is back among the living. The Panthers were the first team out of last week's field, but their RPI is up six spots, and their KenPom.com rank jumped 14 spots. (Blowing out quality opponents on the road will do that.)
But with only one RPI Top 50 win and two losses to teams with an RPI rank hovering around 100, the margin for error here remains slim to none. Pittsburgh has home games against Louisville and Duke in the next week before closing the regular season on the road against the ACC's Tech schools.
A 3-1 finish against that slate would likely put the Panthers somewhat safely in the field at the start of the ACC tournament, but 2-2 (or worse) would mean they had better bring their A-game to the conference tourney. Pitt always seemed to do well in the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden, but we'll see how things go at the Verizon Center in Washington D.C.
Stock Down: Syracuse Orange (Dropped six spots)
By putting together eight wins in nine games, Syracuse was one of our biggest risers last week.
By losing back-to-back games by a 14-point margin since then, the Orange are testing the limits of the selection committee's forgiveness for that brutal loss to St. John's back in December.
The top portion of this resume looks nice: two RPI Top 25 wins, five RPI Top 50 wins (three of which were away from home) and seven RPI Top 75 wins. But with 10 total losses and one of those coming against a team with an RPI rank of 211, Syracuse needs to do more good than bad down the stretch.
Winning at North Carolina on Monday would obviously be a huge boost, but assuming that doesn't happen, the other two remaining games (vs. NC State, at Florida State) are must-win affairs.
Stock Steady: Oregon Ducks (Climbed one spot)
Oregon has one of the country's best computer resumes. It's precisely why the Ducks were a projected No. 1 seed prior to consecutive losses to California and Stanford two weeks ago.
Even with those recent blemishes, they're No. 4 in RPI and No. 1 in SOS with a total of four RPI Top 25 wins, nine RPI Top 50 wins and 16 RPI Top 100 wins. There are a handful of teams with more RPI Top 25 wins, but Oregon leads the nation in those latter two categories.
Though the Ducks are currently our bottom No. 2 seed, it's not the least bit unreasonable to think they could get back to the top line by Selection Sunday. In fact, if they win out (including the Pac-12 tournament), it would be difficult to argue against them getting a No. 1 seed.
Ranking the No. 1 Seeds
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No. 4 Xavier Musketeers (24-3, RPI: 6, KP: 14, SOS: 66)
There are two major factors working in Xavier's favor for a No. 1 seed—each of which could be long gone by the time Selection Sunday arrives.
The more obvious of the two is the lack of losses. There are eight teams in the country right now with less than five losses: two are ineligible for the tournament (SMU and Grand Canyon), three are minor conference teams who faced laughably weak schedules (Arkansas-Little Rock, Hawaii and Saint Mary's), and three are projected No. 1 seeds (Kansas, Villanova and Xavier).
By winning nearly 90 percent of their games against a team with an above-average strength of schedule, the Musketeers have minimized questions about their legitimacy as a Final Four candidate.
Perhaps the bigger factor, though, is the lack of a clear-cut top team in the ACC or Big Ten. Virginia, Miami and North Carolina each has a very strong resume, but each has also lost a game in the past week to keep from asserting itself as the best ACC squad. And Michigan State is arguably the Big Ten's best team, but the Spartans have five conference losses and a nonconference SOS rank of 166.
Good thing, too, because Xavier's resume isn't all that great. The Musketeers only have one win against the RPI Top 25 teams and possess two losses to teams outside the RPI Top 75. As such, they absolutely must beat Villanova on Wednesday to hang on to hope of a spot on the top line.
No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners (21-5, RPI: 3, KP: 5, SOS: 9)
Wednesday's loss to Texas Tech was slightly ill-advised, but the Sooners bounced back beautifully with a 14-point road win against West Virginia.
Comically enough, though, Texas Tech climbed into the RPI Top 25 as a result of that win over Oklahoma. So, now Oklahoma's earlier win over the Red Raiders looks even stronger. As a result, the Sooners have seven RPI Top 25 wins and only one loss to a team outside the RPI Top 25 (at No. 76 Kansas State).
The eye test isn't great as of late, as the Sooners are shooting 29.2 percent from beyond the arc over their last three games. But this is a computer resume that couldn't possibly miss out on a No. 1 seed if the season ended today.
"For the past few weeks, we've been struggling," Buddy Hield said after the WVU win, per John Raby of the Associated Press. "Coach (Lon Kruger) got on us. Everybody wanted to come to West Virginia and prove something. You look at the tape from the Texas Tech and Kansas game, we didn't have fun competing. This game, we really had fun."
No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (24-3, RPI: 2, KP: 1, SOS: 19)
Slowly but surely, people seem to be coming around on Villanova as a title contender.
The Wildcats are now in their third week as the No. 1 team in the AP Top 25, they have won seven in a row by a double-digit margin and have won 16 of their last 17. Their only loss to a team outside the RPI Top Five was an overtime game against Providence in which the Friars actually got strong contributions from Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil on the same night.
Based on nothing more than national perceptions formed about this team over the past few seasons, this probably means Villanova will get blown out at Xavier on Wednesday. If the Wildcats do win that one, though, there's a very good chance they'll jump up to the No. 1 overall seed in the next round of projections.
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (23-4, RPI: 1, KP: 4, SOS: 11)
It's becoming almost impossible to imagine a scenario where Kansas fails to earn a No. 1 seed.
Now in possession of an eight-game winning streak, the Jayhawks are just one win away from clinching at least a share of their 12th consecutive Big 12 regular-season title—an extremely safe bet, considering two of those three games come at Allen Fieldhouse. In putting together their 12-3 conference record, they have compiled eight RPI Top 25 wins and now have a total of 15 RPI Top 100 wins.
And each of their remaining games is against an RPI Top 25 team, so it's not like there are any potential landmines waiting for them. They would almost have to try to fall off the top line at this point.
Seeding by Conference
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In case seeded regions aren't for you and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each team's overall seed, broken down by conference. ("First Five Out" in italics.)
American: 30. Connecticut; 38. Tulsa; 42. Cincinnati; 69. Temple
Atlantic 10: 23. Dayton; 29. Saint Joseph's; 43. VCU; 44. Saint Bonaventure; 73. George Washington
ACC: 5. Virginia; 6. North Carolina; 7. Miami; 12. Duke; 21. Notre Dame; 32. Syracuse; 37. Pittsburgh
Big 12: 1. Kansas; 3. Oklahoma; 10. West Virginia; 16. Texas; 19. Iowa State; 22. Baylor; 27. Texas Tech
Big East: 2. Villanova; 4. Xavier; 35. Seton Hall; 39. Providence; 45. Butler
Big Ten: 9. Michigan State; 13. Iowa; 14. Maryland; 24. Indiana; 25. Purdue; 33. Wisconsin; 41. Michigan
Pac-12: 8. Oregon; 11. Utah; 18. Arizona; 20. California; 26. USC; 31. Oregon State; 34. Colorado; 71. UCLA
SEC: 15. Kentucky; 17. Texas A&M; 28. South Carolina; 36. Florida; 70. Alabama; 72. Vanderbilt
Other: 40. Wichita State; 46. San Diego State; 47. Monmouth; 48. Valparaiso; 49. Saint Mary's; 50. Arkansas-Little Rock; 51. Akron; 52. Yale; 53. Stony Brook; 54. South Dakota State; 55. Hawaii; 56. UNC-Wilmington; 57. Chattanooga; 58. Stephen F. Austin; 59. Belmont; 60. UAB; 61. New Mexico State; 62. UNC-Asheville; 63. Weber State; 64. North Florida; 65. Bucknell; 66. Wagner; 67. Texas Southern; 68. Hampton
Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com, Sports-Reference.com and KenPom.com. RPI, KP and SOS numbers are current through the start of play on Tuesday, Feb. 23. Win-loss records include only games against D-I opponents and are current through the start of play on Wednesday, Feb. 24.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter at @kerrancejames.
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