UNC Basketball: Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Rest of Tar Heels' Season

Since we knew which players would be on the North Carolina Tar Heels roster for 2015-16, this team has been one of the top national title contenders. However, we have also seen that this team possesses the ability to disappoint.

Through 25 games, UNC has proven quite a bit with 21 wins overall and a 10-2 record in conference, good enough for first place in the ACC. Still, this entire college basketball season has been filled with crazy results, including North Carolina's losses to Northern Iowa and Texas.

Those who think this squad is just going to cruise to a national title are surely mistaken.

The Tar Heels have as much upside as anyone in the country, but there are a lot of possible outcomes for the remainder of the year. Aside from simply winning or losing every game, here is a realistic look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for this team.

Worst Case for Regular Season

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There is no denying North Carolina's struggles away from home this year. While it is never easy winning in a hostile environment, the 4-4 record is less than ideal. 

To make matters worse, the "easy" games against Boston College and Virginia Tech are over. According to KenPom.com, five of the final six matchups are "A" games, which includes either facing a good team on the road or an elite team at home. (The full explanation can be seen here).

The home matchup against Syracuse is also far from a gimme.

No matter how good the Tar Heels are, it would take a superior effort to get through this stretch unscathed. Add in the struggles away from home and the inconsistent shooting, and they could be looking at a few more losses before the end of the year.

In the worst realistic case, UNC will suffer three or four more losses in the next six games and miss out on a regular-season league title.

Best Case for Regular Season

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The offense has been the story for most of the regular season, but the reality is this team will win with its defense. The good news is this has improved tremendously in recent weeks.

In the past eight games, only Notre Dame scored more than one point per possession against the Tar Heels. There has been a greater focus on that end of the court, and teams are getting fewer easy looks, especially from three-point range.

Meanwhile, North Carolina remains perfect at the Dean Dome with few teams even providing real challenges. Even with Duke, Miami and Syracuse coming to town, this squad has what it takes to finish out the year undefeated in Chapel Hill.

Road games at Virginia and Duke will be difficult and should prevent UNC from running the table, but ending the year 15-3 or 14-4 in the ACC will still be a great accomplishment and enough to win the program's first league championship since 2012.

Worst Case for ACC Tournament

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Barring a complete collapse, North Carolina should finish with a top-four seed and a bye to the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament. Unfortunately, any opponent will likely be a tough challenge from that point.

Teams like Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Florida State and even Clemson will likely be fighting for the final few spots in the NCAA tournament and hungry for a win that can get them off the bubble. With UNC safely in the field, an upset to a team that simply "wants it more" is definitely a possibility, especially considering the 2-4 record in games decided by six points or less.

The conference is also loaded with teams that can get hot from deep, including eight different squads averaging at least 35 percent from three-point range. Any of them can cause problems in a single-elimination tournament.

With the ACC also taking a rare move outside the state of North Carolina and into Washington, D.C., UNC won't have the fan support it is used to seeing. This all could add up to an early exit in either the quarterfinals or semifinals.

Best Case for ACC Tournament

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An event like this is often decided by matchups. The worst opponent North Carolina can see is a squad that can defend the post, grab rebounds and hit three-point shots. The best team that can do this in the ACC is Louisville, which won't be competing in the tournament due to a self-imposed ban.

Virginia and Notre Dame can cause problems as well, but this is still a limited list of scary matchups for UNC. If either gets knocked out early, it could be smooth sailing through the finals.

Meanwhile, North Carolina is also well-suited for a gauntlet of games thanks to its depth. Eight to 10 players get regular minutes each game, and no one is averaging more than 31 minutes on the season. This group will be fresher on the second and third day of action than their opponents, as evident by the 5-1 record with just one day of rest or fewer this season.

As the top seed in the tournament, the Tar Heels will see favorable matchups for three days and leave the Verizon Center with their first tourney title since 2008.

Worst Case for NCAA Tournament

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Even with a few stumbles down the stretch, North Carolina shouldn't be any lower than a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. The rest of the nation has struggled with consistency all year, and a few losses wouldn't hurt the Tar Heels too much.

With their ability to score in the post and simply overwhelm opponents with their talent, there isn't much danger of losing in the first round. Even a second-round exit would likely require some awful play from this group.

Once the competition picks up, however, advancing will be difficult. There have been questions about this team's toughness and competitive edge in big games, and this is where it could be exposed. The outside shooting has been great in the past few games, but the team has made just 31.6 percent from three-point range on the season. This makes the recent success difficult to trust.

If the shots don't fall, North Carolina hasn't had too many reliable options to make the plays when needed.

The Tar Heels could end up going cold offensively while facing an opponent with quick, scoring guards who can torch this defense. Add in some bad defensive rebounding, and they could finish with a loss in the Sweet 16.

Best Case for NCAA Tournament

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Even with a few losses in recent weeks, there has been a lot of encouraging signs in this stretch. The defense has been as good as ever, the shooting has been better and Marcus Paige is starting to become the scorer everyone expects him to be.

If these three things continue, North Carolina can be the best team in the country.

The Tar Heels also have a great deal of scoring depth that can help them across the six games needed to win it all. If Buddy Hield or Denzel Valentine have an off night, their teams will struggle. If Brice Johnson can't get a shot off, UNC can turn to Paige, Justin Jackson, Joel Berry, Kennedy Meeks or Isaiah Hicks to lead the way in scoring. This will provide offensive consistency regardless of the opponent.

Additionally, none of the NCAA tournament games will be played in an opposing team's gym, so there is no reason to worry about the hostile environments that have plagued this team already this year.

North Carolina has as much pure talent as anyone in the nation, and when it plays to its ability, it can win the national championship. This team was No. 1 in the polls to start the year and has a strong chance of ending there as well.

Follow Rob Goldberg on Twitter for year-round sports analysis.