Super Bowl Odds 2016: Panthers vs. Broncos Spread, Over/Under Betting Guide

As Super Bowl 50 approaches, the spread has stabilized in the Carolina Panthers' favor.

According to Odds Shark, the betting line initially opened at 3.5, favoring the NFC champions. It quickly spiked to 6 and rests at 5.5 entering Sunday. Bettors trust Cam Newton and company to keep rolling, and they don't anticipate the defensive-minded Denver Broncos making it particularly close.

The sharks, meanwhile, sniffed an opportunity and pounced on the Broncos with better odds. After all, betting on them as underdogs worked on Jan. 24 against the New England Patriots. The AFC conquerors have obtained 11 victories by seven points or fewer, but they have also only lost one game by more than one score.

Is this one as easy to peg as the betting consensus believes? Let's examine the title bout's betting lines.

Date	Matchup	Time (ET)	Odds	O/U	Prediction
Sun., Feb. 7	Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos	6:30 pm.	CAR -5.5	44.5	24-16 CAR

Betting Guide

The extra week off before the Super Bowl provides much-needed rest for the two teams, but it also causes the public to over-examine the big game. Every step and sentence turns into an angle, prompting bettors to re-examine their stance on a daily basis.

On Jan. 29, ESPN's Ben Hawkes reported a surge of movement toward Carolina. A more productive quarterback and significantly higher margin of victory made it the easy gut call.

"I can't remember a more one-sided betting Super Bowl," Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, told Hawkes.

By Friday, bold Broncos fans had rushed to their bookies. Per Odds Shark, the percentage of Panthers bets dimmed to 54 percent. According to Sports Insights's David Solar, Broncos supporters have put more money on the line in light of the widened spread:

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We have also noticed something interesting regarding the moneyline betting trends for this game. Although the Broncos (+200) are receiving just 54 percent of moneyline bets, they have received 72 percent of total dollars wagered. That means sportsbooks could have a lot of liability if Denver is able to win the game straight up.

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Nearly every Denver game is close, but the Panthers made opponents suffer. Over their last 10 games, they wield a plus-170 point differential. The Broncos hold a plus-68 margin all year, and their formula only works in a tight game. If the Panthers jump out to a 10-0 lead, this game could get remarkably ugly.

Despite the cavernous spread, the over-under line remains a conservative 44.5. In the past nine Super Bowls, only the New York Giants and New England Patriots' two meetings stayed below 45 combined points. The line places a lot of trust in Denver's top-rated defense to derail Carolina, which averages 32.2 points per game after dropping 49 on the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game.

After restricting the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots to 16 and 18 points respectively, the Broncos have relinquished a microscopic 18.3 points per game. Only the Steelers, when healthy in a regular-season encounter, reached 30 on the scoreboard.

It's not, however, all in the defense's hands. The Panthers have accrued 30 interceptions this year, exiting the regular season with a league-high 24. Linebacker Luke Kuechly converted a pick into six points in each playoff victory, and Peyton Manning wasn't exactly the most accurate passer around during the regular season.

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Carolina could torpedo the over-under line with huge plays, but Denver's offense should encourage everyone to take the under. Manning hasn't battled a defense ranked as highly as Carolina's No. 6 unit. Armed with playmaking stars on all levels of the field, they ended Carson Palmer's MVP-caliber season on a sour note after dominating Russell Wilson for a half.

The next-best defense Manning faced, the No. 7 Kansas City Chiefs, jettisoned him to the bench with four interceptions.

Any Broncos fans hoping to catch Carolina shorthanded are also out of luck. Although linebacker Thomas Davis and defensive end Jared Allen are both dealing with injuries, head coach Ron Rivera expects them to suit up.

"I was really pleased by what we got from both of those guys," Rivera told ESPN's David Newton. "I'm excited about having them back on the football field."

Denver has made it this far because of defense, and the offense has managed to collect just enough points to scrape by. Against a good defense, hitting 20 is a good day. Versus a unit that finished first in opposing-quarterback rating, reaching double digits behind an over-the-hill Manning isn't a given.