UFC 196: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Conor McGregor Early Preview and Predictions
The cancellation of Fabricio Werdum vs. Cain Velasquez prompted a major shake-up of the UFC's numbering system and resulted in UFC 197 being renamed UFC 196 (while UFC 196 became Fight Night 82). Regardless, the card remains a must-see affair topped by two huge title fights in Rafael dos Anjos vs. Conor McGregor for the UFC lightweight title and Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate.
The full lineup of announced fights is as follows:
- Rafael dos Anjos vs Conor McGregor
- Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate
- Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor
- Erick Silva vs. Nordine Taleb
- Darren Elkins vs. Chas Skelly
- Diego Sanchez vs. Jim Miller
- Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko
- Justin Salas vs. Jason Saggo
- Ilir Latifi vs. Gian Villante
- Vitor Miranda vs. Marcelo Guimaraes
There are a number of interesting matchups, and with less than a month to go before this event, it's worth taking a good look at the card.
What are the stakes entering UFC 196? Who is likely to come out on top during the card? Find out right here!
UFC 196 Undercard
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Ilir Latifi vs. Gian Villante: Villante and Latifi are both talented, have serious knockout power and own a number of big wins over solid names, but they have suffered ill-timed losses on their ascensions up the rankings. As relatively young members of the UFC light heavyweight division, these two should be getting slowly developed en route to the title. Instead, one of them will suffer yet another major setback.
Vitor Miranda vs. Marcelo Guimaraes: Vitor Miranda has looked like a killer since dropping back down to 185 pounds after a run on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 as a heavyweight. The UFC is looking to get his hype train moving by giving him a manageable opponent in Marcel Guimaraes.
Justin Salas vs. Jason Saggo: The UFC is taking a good look at Saggo, while Salas' place in the UFC is clear after four years of alternating wins and losses. We'll see if Saggo is an actual developing talent or if he is doomed to wash out of the big leagues at UFC 196.
Diego Sanchez vs. Jim Miller: The "Fight Pass Main Event" fight is the greatest testament there is to how much better off the UFC is after the Reebok deal. A few months back, Sanchez vs. Miller wouldn't have happened because both fighters, established veterans with a number of sponsors, would have resisted due to the hits to their wallets. By taking sponsors away from fighters, it can book anybody, anywhere.
Oh, the fight? Tough call. Miller likely has more left in the tank, but Sanchez is a master of tricking judges into giving him a win.
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko: Valentina Shevchenko surprised many by upsetting Sarah Kaufman in her UFC debut, and there are reasons to be excited about her moving forward. Unfortunately, she is set to face Amanda Nunes in her sophomore effort. That's pretty much the worst match the UFC could have set up.
Darren Elkins vs. Chas Skelly: Chas Skelly is on a solid four-fight winning streak, and the UFC wants to know if he is top-15 material. The best way to do so? Match him up with veteran wrestler Darren Elkins. If Skelly can get through Elkins, he's a serious player at 145 pounds. If not? Well, better luck next time.
Erick Silva vs. Nordine Taleb: The cycle continues. Once again, Erick Silva was thrown into the welterweight division's deep end, and once again, he was found wanting. As is tradition, the UFC is giving the Brazilian a golden opportunity to get back into the win column against an unremarkable Nordine Taleb.
Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor
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Division: Light Heavyweight
Records: Corey Anderson (7-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) vs. Tom Lawlor (10-5 MMA, 6-4 UFC)
A fan favorite looking to make a comeback. A promising young fighter looking to pick up a big win. One man will achieve new heights. The other will smash into the proverbial wall.
Which fighter will be which? That's tough to peg.
Tom Lawlor has scored some big wins over his career and has managed to become a hot act with his wacky weigh-ins and walk-outs, but he never really gathered legitimate momentum due to a combination of injuries and poorly timed (and often controversial) losses. An unfortunate series of tweaks, tears and pulls shelved him for a full two years, and while that felt tragic at the time, that break gave him something of a fresh start in the UFC.
When he finally returned to the cage, he impressed fans by starching Gian Villante after jumping up to 205 pounds. That win was enough to breathe life into his career and get him some second looks as a light-heavyweight contender.
Corey Anderson doesn't have Lawlor's popularity, but what he does have is youth and a strong record. The TUF 19 winner is 4-1 in the UFC, and on his age and talent alone, he has a bright future in the 205-pound division. At the moment, however, he has failed to move the needle despite solid wins over fringe top-10 names like Fabio Maldonado and Jan Blachowicz.
That could change with a win over a name like Tom Lawlor.
Both fighters have some glaring holes in their games but plenty of legitimate skills. This one will come down to whether or not Anderson has developed enough to take on a solid, stylistically similar veteran. In terms of predictions, this is a time to bet on youth over experience.
Prediction: Corey Anderson def. Tom Lawlor by unanimous decision
Holly Holm vs. Miesha Tate
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Division: Bantamweight
Records: Holly Holm (10-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) vs. Miesha Tate (17-5 MMA, 4-2 UFC)
Miesha Tate is a familiar face but something of an unknown commodity these days. Despite being best known for her losing efforts against Ronda Rousey, Cupcake has long been one of the top fighters in the division, and the recent improvements to her striking game make her a difficult challenge for any woman in the UFC, bantamweight champ Holly Holm included.
While Holm's striking pedigree is second to none in the UFC today, Tate has an uncanny ability to force opponents into her style of fight. Even Rousey was dragged into a scramble-heavy, frenetic bout instead of a pure grappling match. That makes Tate an interesting challenge for Holm, no matter what the betting lines may suggest (lines opened at 1-4 vs. 31-10, per Odds Shark).
Tate has improved in the striking department to the point where she survives on the feet with Holm, but there's no way she can come out on top in a prolonged stand-up war. If she can keep things close and force Holm to spend most of her time along the fence or on the ground, she might be able to pull off the upset.
Obviously, that's a tight rope she will be forced to walk, but a victory wouldn't be as huge an upset as it would seem. Of course, the most likely outcome remains...
Prediction: Holly Holm def. Miesha Tate by unanimous decision
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Rafael dos Anjos vs. Conor McGregor
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Division: Lightweight
Records: Rafael dos Anjos (25-7 MMA, 14-5 UFC) vs. Conor McGregor (19-2 MMA, 7-0 UFC)
So much to talk about, so little time.
How will this fight fair at the box office? What does a loss do to McGregor's drawing power? What does a win do? Will the UFC-McGregor relationship continue to sour? If McGregor wins, can he really juggle two division titles at once? The list goes on.
The fight itself is no less enigmatic.
Will McGregor's power striking hold up at 155 pounds? Will dos Anjos be able to contain McGregor against the cage? Has McGregor's defensive grappling game improved since his fight against Chad Mendes?
This entire fight is unanswered questions and uncharted territory to the point where it's impossible to confidently predict what to expect. I'll go with my gut and predict McGregor takes this. You fans, though, should just sit back and enjoy the ride.
Prediction: Conor McGregor def. Rafael dos Anjos by TKO in Round 3
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