Barcelona Must Prepare for Neymar Departure Despite Probability of New Contract
Top of La Liga, into the Champions League last 16 and all but assured of another Copa del Rey final after crushing Valencia 7-0 in the first leg of the semi-finals, everything looks as impressive and relentless as ever in the pursuit of success at Barcelona.
The front three are the envy of the world, there is competition for places throughout the squad and manager Luis Enrique is on the verge of equalling Pep Guardiola's longest unbeaten streak at the club, 28 games—yet there remains an undercurrent of negativity and possibility of upheaval at the Catalan club, entirely down to off-field issues.
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With Lionel Messi still under investigation for alleged tax fraud, Javier Mascherano fighting a prison sentence for the same and Neymar in court regarding corruption and fraud over his move from Santos and tax evasion in Brazil, Barcelona's stars seem to have been spending almost as much time in courtrooms as dressing rooms of late.
While most will emerge unscathed other than hefty outgoing payments, Neymar's father (and agent) spoke in court about a €190 million offer on the table to the forward, per Spanish news agency EFE (h/t Marca) and it must be the Brazilian who seems most probable to leave the Camp Nou if events are not resolved.
To that end and given the importance of Neymar to the team, Barcelona are under extreme obligation to come up with a plan to cope with his departure—even if the most likely course of events, and the one the club will hope for, is that those plans never have to be executed over the next two or three seasons.
Neymar, MSN's line-breaker
Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, Neymar. The outrageously talented attacking triumvirate of Barcelona gave their latest evidence on the pitch on Wednesday night, when they destroyed Valencia for the entire 90 minutes, with Neymar setting up two of the seven goals.
He also had chances of his own to score, including a missed penalty, but it remains his all-round contribution on the ball which sees the Brazilian shine most.
Movement between the lines, one-touch link play and tremendous ability in one-on-one situations; Neymar's role in the front three is split between goalscorer and creator, with his acceleration and technique meaning he's often the one who either sprints infield to create danger or runs in behind the defence down the left channel to exploit space and create an angle for a pass.
Neymar has scored 21 and assisted 20 this season in all competitions and recently finished third in the Ballon d'Or award—he's a top talent in the world and, as he prepares to turn 24, will continue his upward trajectory over the next three or four seasons in particular.
Replacing him is no easy task, but directly replacing him will be impossible. Barcelona's plan has to account for that in one of two ways.
Contingencies for consistency
Naturally, the first route is the option of a similar talent, in terms of style of play and how a player attacks the final third, rather than a "similar" level of quality.
As a wide forward who cuts in off the left, has great pace as well as technical skill and can score goals, Barcelona's search pool would be rather limited.
From the Premier League there are Eden Hazard, Raheem Sterling or former Blaugrana Alexis Sanchez who offer the best approximation of those four key identifiers, though each operates in their own different ways.
Closer to home, Antoine Griezmann has shone for two years at Atletico Madrid, though through the centre more often than from the left since he left Real Sociedad, while the Bundesliga could offer up Marco Reus as a big-money signing and a close fit for productivity.
There are differences with each, and none—perhaps aside from Sanchez—can offer up the intangible extras that Neymar brings the club: shirt sales, global recognition and a camaraderie with the other attacking team-mates borne of their shared social values.
To go the same route as Neymar, it's unlikely that any signing will simply slot in and be as accepted by the fans, the media and even the team dynamic as the No. 11 has become.
Alternative strikeforce
The second option for Barcelona is to slightly alter the input required from the left-sided forward and—probably with a lower quality of player involved—rotate one position between two very good players as opposed to the set-in-stone world-class starting trio they have at present.
Philippe Coutinho, Dimitri Payet, Yevhen Konoplyanka, Pedro, Nolito, Lucas Moura, Lorenzo Insigne...the possibilities are endless, but so too is the variance in risk.
Replacing one of the best players on the planet does not happen easily (or cheaply), and instead of lowering the quality or method of attack from the left—which would imbalance the way the attacks form at present—Barcelona could opt to change the shape itself.
Messi holds the key to this possibility.
As unstoppable as a centre-forward as he is as a roaming No. 10 creator, Barcelona would have the option of going big in the market for a second striker to partner with Suarez, with Messi in behind the duo, or else returning the Argentinian to a forward's role (alongside the Uruguay international) with freedom to float around and instil a powerful, driving force behind them both.
In either case, Serie A champions Juventus perhaps holds the key to either plan—Paulo Dybala as a partner for Suarez, or Paul Pogba marauding and scheming behind Suarez and Messi together.
In either case, the tactical alteration places huge demands on the full-backs to continue being a big strength and outlet for Barcelona, while keeping the traditional three-man central midfield in place.
The sticking point here is Luis Enrique; would the manager stick to the 4-3-3 he has used almost without a single change throughout his time at the club and try to shoehorn in a new forward, or would he show adaptability and find a new way to flatten all before him?
Barcelona remain confident that, despite the off-field issues and the perceived threat of interest from elsewhere—including from Liga rivals Real Madrid—Neymar will eventually sign his new contract and remain in place.
Per Sky Sports, Enrique has stated his belief that the Brazilian will renew, and the player always looks extremely relaxed and comfortable in the team and in build-up to games, so there's no immediate need to worry, certainly not over the remainder of the season.
As every fan and club staff member knows, though, money will talk in football and a lot can change in the four months between now and the season's end, when Neymar will take part in the Copa America for Brazil.
Everything for now suggests Neymar will remain, MSN will continue to trample over every defence placed in their way and Barcelona will continue trying to wrap up a double-treble, an unprecedented feat of success.
Even so, the club would be utterly remiss to plan, plan again and have a contingency for their contingencies, just in case Neymar ups sticks and leaves.
A talent of Neymar's level cannot simply be assumed upon and his departure would leave a chasm in the squad, not a hole. The Catalan club must have a procedure in place for if the Brazilian walks out the door for the last time, be it this summer or next.
They'll then just hope they don't have to bring it into action.
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