Will California Rally from Tyrone Wallace Injury and Make the NCAA Tournament?

Once the trendiest of the 20 or so teams labeled in the preseason as legitimate candidates to reach the 2016 Final Four, California might be lucky to get into the First Four if Tyrone Wallace doesn't come back from a broken hand ASAP and better than ever.

After all, Wallace's decision to return for a fourth and final season was a big part of the reason we all bought stock in the Golden Bears.

They signed 5-star big man Ivan Rabb on April 13, convinced Wallace to stay on April 23 and signed 5-star forward Jaylen Brown on May 1. For a team that hasn't even competed in an Elite Eight since 1960, it was arguably the best three-week stretch the program had experienced in several decades.

In what felt like the blink of an eye, Cal went from nowhere to be found on projected brackets to smack dab in the middle of everyone's Top 25 rankings.

The Golden Bears were No. 17 for USA Today's Scott Gleeson in early May, No. 14 for CBS Sports' Gary Parrish in late May, No. 11 for NBC Sports' Rob Dauster in late June, No. 12 for ESPN's Eamonn Brennan in early August and No. 15 in our preseason rankings. Whether stated explicitly or subliminally, we all assumed they had a very good chance of winning the Pac-12.

Of the 28 people that ESPN polled shortly before the season began, four (Cory Alexander, C.L. Brown, Jeff Goodman and Andy Katz) picked Cal to make the Final Four, and Jeff Borzello noted on Twitter that he certainly thought about doing the same:

With early losses to San Diego State and Richmond in the Las Vegas Invitational that sent them plummeting out of the AP Top 25, the dream season certainly didn't start out as planned.

But right when they were starting to live up to all of that preseason hype—with convincing home wins over Colorado and Utah book-ended by hard-fought road losses against Virginia and Oregon—the Golden Bears were dealt the near-lethal blow of having to play the next four to six weeks without Wallace.

"One thing with Tyrone is the reputation when you step on the floor," head coach Cuonzo Martin told Bleacher Report this week. "Teams identify him as a guy that can make plays and get to the rim; probably our best perimeter defender. And he's a senior leader, so he's a guy who's battle-tested and knows how to go about his business. That's the biggest (thing we miss) outside of all the other things that he brings to the actual game."

They were already just 12-6 overall with a 2-3 record in Pac-12 play.

How could they possibly weather that storm?

It was one thing when Duke lost Amile Jefferson and had the enviable option of moving Brandon Ingram to the 4 and giving Luke Kennard a healthier dose of minutes, or when Arizona lost Allonzo Trier and merely got to lean more heavily on guys like Kadeem Allen and Mark Tollefsen.

But California has almost no depth whatsoever, and Wallace was the team leader in minutes, points, assists, steals and years of experience at the time of his injury. With all due respect to junior guard Sam Singer, plugging him into the lineup in place of Wallace is roughly the equivalent of the Houston Rockets trying to win basketball games with Sam Dekker filling in for James Harden.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

It's more than just the raw stats that California is missing from Wallace, though. With him out, it completely changes what opposing teams can do on defense.

"Jabari (Bird) and Jordan Mathews, they're pushing up on those guys," Martin said. "Sam is more of a facilitator. He sets up the offense. Tyrone's in attack mode all the time. It's probably not ideal to press up and take away those wing actions when you got a guy who can drive the way Tyrone does."

Singer did surprise pretty much everyone by putting up eight assists, six points and six rebounds against Arizona State in the first game without Wallace. He also gave Cal a solid 31 minutes in the possibly season-saving win over Arizona two nights later, but he has tapered off in subsequent road games against Colorado and Utah.

His coach isn't worried, though, because those are tough environments for anyone, let alone a guy who didn't start a single game in the first two months of the season.

"It's not that Sam can't get the job done," Martin said. "It's just about going through playing at that level and stage. All of a sudden, it's another 20 minutes (per game) to lead and direct traffic, and you become a focal point on the scouting report. It's just different. So now the key for Sam is adjusting to how teams guard him differently."

The other key for Cal has been Jaylen Brown becoming drastically more assertive on offense.

At 32.6 percent, Brown has the 12th-highest usage rate in the country and the highest among freshmen, per KenPom, so he certainly wasn't lacking in assertiveness before Wallace's injury.

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Through Cal's first five Pac-12 games, though, Brown was used on approximately 27 percent of possessions. That number has skyrocketed to approximately 40 percent with Wallace out. This past weekend, he was used on 44 percent of possessions against Utah and 46 percent against Colorado, attempting a combined 35 shots and 21 free throws.

With Bird and Mathews struggling to get open looks and Singer rarely looking to call his own number, it makes sense that Brown is claiming an even bigger piece of the pie.

"I think he's just continuing to get better," Martin said. "Early in the season, the big adjustment was understanding more than anything how hard you have to play. His second or third option was great in high school, but now you got to make plays and make the right decision; be solid in what you're doing. ... He's always had the mentality to score, but now he's really picking and choosing his spots and being aggressive."

Truth be told, California's offensive production hasn't changed one bit with Singer running the point and Brown running the show. How the Golden Bears get the points has changed—worse two-point percentage, better turnover percentage and more out of Brown—but their per-possession numbers on offense are identical.

Starting PG	Points / Poss	Pts. Allowed / Poss	2P% (O)	3P% (D)	Turnovers / Game
Wallace (5 games)	1.035	1.000	53.3	32.3	14.0
Singer (4 games)	1.035	1.075	45.0	36.5	11.8

Rather, it's on the defensive end of the court where they have missed Wallace the most.

California was never much of a turnover-forcing defense, which should be clear from a steal rate that ranks dead last among all major-conference teams. However, defense had been their strong suit through the first 18 games of the season. Wallace's quickness as the team's best perimeter defender really frustrated would-be three-point shooters, and Ivan Rabb's length in the post has led them to 39.6 percent two-point field-goal defense that ranks first in the nation.

But Singer isn't nearly the perimeter defender that Wallace is. In fact, according to Sports-Reference, only Mathews has a worse D-Rating among the 10 Golden Bears that have logged at least 25 minutes. Singer also doesn't crash the defensive glass anywhere near as well as Wallace does. To be fair, that's not typically a trait that point guards have, but it was a nice perk that Wallace brought to the table.

Fortunately, California is undefeated at home this season (13-0) and Stanford is the worst three-point shooting team in the Pac-12 at 31.4 percent, so the Golden Bears should at least be able to get back to .500 in conference play this weekend. They might even be able to improve to 7-5 if they can protect home court in a pair of very difficult games against the Oregon schools.

As far as the tournament resume is concerned, though, simply continuing to win at home might not be enough.

"

Cal is still winless on the road in the Pac-12. Bears fall at Colorado. Now 4-5 in conference play. Every game in February will be critical.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) February 1, 2016"

Granted, the computer profile looks pretty solid, and the bubble is weaker than it has ever been. (Doesn't it feel like we say that every year?) They entered play on Tuesday with an RPI rank of 35, a KenPom rank of 43 and a strength of schedule that ranked 23rd in the nation.

However, they're 0-8 away from home against the RPI Top 150, which is just about the reddest flag a team can submit to the selection committee.

Even if they win all of their remaining home games—which would nearly double their count of RPI Top 100 wins from six to 11—they eventually need to take that show on the road. Otherwise, the best they can do is a 19-13 record with their best nonconference wins coming at home against a pair of teams (Saint Mary's and Davidson) that aren't even guaranteed to make the tournament.

If Wallace is able to return on the short end of the four- to six-week recovery window—Martin was unable to provide an update outside of noting that he goes in for a check-up on Thursday—that would put him back on the court just in time for the road trip against Washington and Washington State.

Whether their leader is back or not, they almost have to win at least one of those two games—probably both if they lose the home game against Oregon next week.

The long and short of it is that they already have eight losses and they're currently playing at less than full strength. Each game is crucial, and each one will be a challenge. They don't need to win every game, but it's probably going to take wins in six of the final nine regular-season games, so it would behoove the Golden Bears to not lose any of these next three at home while waiting for Wallace to return.

Time to find out if Singer can make California a dancer.

All quotes and information obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Recruiting data courtesy of 247 Sports. Advanced stats per KenPom unless otherwise noted.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.