Duke Basketball: Ranking the Biggest Games Left on Blue Devils' Schedule

With four losses in its last five games, Duke is mired in its worst skid in almost a decade. The Blue Devils are 15-6 overall and 4-4 in the ACC, their worst start in the league since 1996-97. Less than 10 months removed from winning a national title, they're suddenly no longer a lock to make the NCAA tournament and defend that championship.

It would take several more losses—probably more than its number of wins during the same span—for Duke to miss its first tourney since 1995. But if the current downward trend continues, it will be looking at an unfavorable seed after being no worse than a No. 3 seed in each of the previous eight seasons.

There are a few regular-season games that will prove to be bigger than others. These are the ones where pulling out a win will go a long way toward not just ensuring another NCAA tourney bid, but being in position to make a deep run in March.

We've ranked the six biggest remaining games for Duke based on their difficulty and importance to the overall season.

6. Feb. 2 at Georgia Tech

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On a grand scale, Duke's next game on the schedule isn't particularly daunting in comparison to others later in the season. But with the streak it's been on of late, the next chance to get things on track makes this trip to Atlanta the most important game for the time being.

Georgia Tech (11-8, 1-5 ACC) has lost three straight and five of six, yet amid this run of poor play, it managed to knock off then-No. 4 Virginia at home. The Yellow Jackets are much better on their court than elsewhere, going 9-3 at McCamish Pavilion, but they've dropped their last two there by a combined five points.

This game is big for Duke because it will come after having an entire week off, during which time it can not only rest its short rotation, but also spend time implementing tactics that will help it better handle its depth situation.

5. Feb. 28 at Pittsburgh

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Six of Duke's final 10 regular-season games are at home, including its final two contests. The last road trip is at Pittsburgh, where it hasn't played since January 2014.

Pittsburgh (16-3, 5-2 ACC) has been among the biggest surprises in the league, picked to finish in 10th place but off to a strong start after winning only 19 games a year ago. The Panthers are scoring 81.1 points per game and shooting a strong 47.9 percent from the field, but where they do their most damage is at the foul line.

The Panthers make 77.2 percent of their free throws, third-best in the country, going to the line 23.6 times per game. That's not good for Duke, which can't afford to get into a game where fouls become an issue because of its thin lineup.

4. Feb. 13 vs. Virginia

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Duke's most critical remaining stretch of the season comes in the middle of February when it faces four consecutive ranked opponents. Virginia is the second one in that group, coming in between a visit from Louisville and a trip to rival North Carolina.

The Cavaliers (16-4, 5-3 ACC) are the two-time defending regular-season conference champions, but they've been up and down to start league play in 2016. Their losses at Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State were by a combined 13 points, and on Tuesday night, they needed to score 18 in the final 79 seconds to win at Wake Forest on a banked three-pointer at the buzzer.

Duke has had Virginia's number the last two seasons, winning the lone regular-season game the past two years. The Cavaliers haven't won in Durham since January 1995.

3. Feb. 20 at Louisville

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Duke and Louisville will get familiar with each other soon, as they're set to face off twice in a 13-day span next month. The Cardinals will come to Cameron Indoor Stadium on Feb. 8, then Duke hits the Yum! Center at the tail end of a two-game road trip that begins at North Carolina.

Louisville (16-3, 5-1) is in only its second year in the ACC, but these schools have met three times since 2012, including in the 2013 Elite Eight during Louisville's run to the national title. Last year, the Blue Devils went to Louisville and escaped with a defensive-driven 63-52 win.

Expect more of the same from the Cardinals this season, as they rank first in the nation in field-goal defense (36.4 percent) and second in scoring defense (58.8 points per game). Duke is 0-4 this season when failing to score at least 70 points.

2. Feb. 17 at North Carolina

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Duke and North Carolina alternate which team gets to host the first of their two games each season, and in 2016, the first meeting will be in Chapel Hill. The Blue Devils might feel the most comfortable in the Dean Smith Center of any visiting team, though, having won there three of the last four times, including last March.

This UNC team is much better than those of recent memory, as the Tar Heels (18-2, 7-0 ACC) are off to their best start in conference play since 2000-01 and have won 11 in a row. And that's been with senior guard Marcus Paige going through an extended shooting slump of late.

The Tar Heels are the deepest team in the league, with nine players averaging double-digit minutes and six scoring at least 10 points per game. Duke will have had three days off since its last game, but that might not be enough time to build up energy to withstand UNC's ability to cycle in fresh players at will.

1. March 5 vs. North Carolina

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Teams want to be playing their best basketball when the calendar turns to March, hoping to head into their conference tournament with some momentum in order to get on a roll ahead of the NCAA tourney. For Duke, that will mean needing to knock off its archrival in its final game of the regular season.

With the NCAA tourney selection committee using a team's record over the final 10 games as a measuring stick for seeding, this game takes on even greater importance unless the Blue Devils come in on a roll. A win right before the ACC tourney will also build confidence before having to possibly play up to four or five games in as many days, while a loss will lead to additional doubts at the wrong time.

Duke has ended its last three regular seasons with wins over the Tar Heels, two of which were on the road. It has won five of the last six over UNC in Durham, with last year's victory coming in overtime.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.