Why Manchester United Will Win No Trophies This Season
Manchester United may, of course, win a trophy this season, but predicting success in any of the three competitions in which they are still standing seems a little far-fetched.
Let's take a look at all three and and assess United's chances in each to see why zero trophies unfortunately seems the most likely haul for the season.
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This is all based on the assumption that Louis van Gaal remains in his post and the club do not pull off any spectacular moves in the January transfer window. If either of those two variables changes, then a new assessment would need to be made.
Why Manchester United Will Not Win the Premier League
The history of the past decade of Premier League football paints a bleak picture for anyone hoping for a remarkable United comeback in this season's campaign.
After 21 games, the Red Devils are in sixth on 34 points. In the past 10 seasons after 21 games, the eventual Premier League champions have been in the following positions:
- 2014/15: Chelsea, top, 49 points.
- 2013/14: Manchester City, second, 47 points, one point behind leaders Arsenal.
- 2012/13: Manchester United, top, 52 points.
- 2011/12: Manchester City, top, 51 points.
- 2010/11: Manchester United, top, 45 points.
- 2009/10: Chelsea, top, 48 points.
- 2008/09: Manchester United, top, 47 points.
- 2007/08: Manchester United, second, 48 points, two points behind leaders Arsenal.
- 2006/07: Manchester United, top, 53 points.
- 2005/06: Chelsea, top, 58 points.
Thus in eight of the past 10 seasons, the eventual champions have been top of the division after 21 games. The smallest points total any eventual winner had at this stage of the season was 11 points more than United have.
Of course, big swings do happen in football, though as the above data shows, not for a long time. Indeed, the last time a team outside of the top two after 21 games won the title was United in 2002/03.
They were sat in third on 38 points that season, five points adrift of Arsenal, but a dominant end to the campaign saw the Red Devils overhaul the difference and win the league by five points.
Sir Alex Ferguson's Ruud van Nistelrooy-powered side went unbeaten in the Premier League after their Boxing Day loss to Middlesbrough, achieving both consistency and the odd spectacular peak—a 4-0 win at home to Liverpool was followed by a 6-2 thumping of Newcastle United at St James' Park.
There is simply nothing about Louis van Gaal's side that suggests such consistency is forthcoming. Admittedly, Sir Alex's United had stumbled plenty in the first half of that season, but there was no eight-game winless streak or four-game losing streak as Van Gaal's United have endured this time out.
The truth is, in over a season-and-a-half United have only excelled under Van Gaal a handful of times—or perhaps two handfuls, to be more generous.
Ferguson was a master of the calculated gamble. His sides frequently outscored their opponents on the way to the title. They could shut up shop and grind out wins too, but for all but one of their last five title-winning campaigns, United were also the division's leading goalscorers.
Van Gaal's side has erred so far onto the side of caution it has become soporific, and teams rarely bore their way to the Premier League title. The points gap, the lack of goals and recent history all stand as tangible barriers to the Premier League trophy's return to its most frequent stomping ground.
Why Manchester United Will Not Win the Europa League
Winning the Europa League might be more viable than winning the Premier League, but it is still a massive ask for United.
It nudges ahead of the Premier League in terms of likelihood as it requires slightly less consistency. To win the Europa League from here, teams have to navigate nine games: two-legged clashes in the rounds of 32 and 16, the quarter- and semi-finals and a single-legged final.
While that might mean United have to play well—or at least get the right result—less often than they would have to do to win the Premier League, the task is nonetheless daunting.
Their chances have been made slightly better thanks to a favourable draw in the round of 32. United's misfortunes so far this season mean they cannot afford to take any opposition lightly, but there were certainly more difficult draws to receive for this round than FC Midtjylland.
However, there are still plenty of teams in the competition that are better placed in Europe's best domestic competitions than United are in theirs.
Fiorentina are fourth in Serie A, Villarreal are fourth in La Liga and Tottenham Hostpur are fourth in the Premier League. Borussia Dortmund are second in the Bundesliga and Napoli are top of Serie A.
Additionally, the league leaders from the Ukraine and Portugal remain in the draw—Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting CP respectively. There are potential meetings with former United stars, such as Javier Hernandez at Bayer Leverkusen, Robin van Persie and Nani at Fenerbahce and Gary Neville at Valencia.
Liverpool are also still in the draw, and any two-legged clash with such bitter rivals would be difficult to call in advance.
Essentially, this is all by way of saying the Europa League is packed with heavy hitters, and United's failure to match an at-worst moderately challenging Champions League group makes even second-tier European glory this season seem implausible.
Why Manchester United Will Not Win the FA Cup
First of all, it should be said this represents United's best chance of breaking the no-trophy expectation. Having—narrowly—beaten Sheffield United in the third round, just five matches stand between them and cup glory.
The first of those will be away to Derby County, who are third in the Championship, meaning 16 league places separate the two sides. Under normal circumstances—or at least what passed for normal circumstances until Sir Alex retired—this would feel like an easy draw.
At the moment, though, no game feels easy for United. That they made such heavy weather of beating League One Sheffield United at Old Trafford demonstrates just how little certainty there can be heading into fixtures against even eminently beatable opposition.
Last season, Van Gaal's side made similarly hard work of their FA Cup campaign. They beat Yeovil Town at the first time of asking, though it took late goals to do so. Cambridge United forced a replay following a 0-0 draw at Abbey Stadium. Preston North End took the lead before United eventually beat them.
In the quarter-finals, United faced opposition at their own level for the first time in the campaign and came unstuck, losing 2-1 to Arsenal at Old Trafford.
There were two particularly galling aspects of that defeat. One was that Danny Welbeck scored the winner for Arsenal.
The other was that Van Gaal threw out the playbook that had been successful time and again when United faced Arsene Wenger's side: defend deep, press with physicality in midfield and score on the counter.
Instead, United attempted to dominate possession and were hit on the counter themselves.
It was an example of Van Gaal's failure to get to grips with the United job, which is the root cause of the current situation. It is that situation that means predicting a trophy win for the Red Devils this season seems foolhardy.
United fans will hope this prediction is proved wrong and that Van Gaal's men confound expectations with an unlikely treble. For now, though, the likelihood remains that 2015/16 will be another season without silverware at Old Trafford.
Custom table data per Statto.com.
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